저자 : Kalu O. Emenike
발행기관 : 한국파생상품학회
간행물 :
선물연구
30권 4호
발행 연도 : 2022
페이지 : pp. 246-259 (14 pages)
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The importance of sovereign bond as a source of financing revenue deficit, benchmarking for corporate bonds and debt management in Africa, calls for continual monitoring of its volatility dynamics. This study evaluates the nature of sovereign bond volatility interaction between African countries using bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) model. Based on a sample of eight African countries, the results show evidence of unidirectional volatility spillover from Morocco sovereign bond to Egypt sovereign bond. Next, the results show absence of volatility interaction between Ghana and Nigeria sovereign bonds. The results further show the existence of bidirectional volatility transmission between Uganda and Kenya. Finally, the results indicate evidence of bidirectional volatility interaction between Botswana and South Africa. Overall, the results show existence of full interaction between Uganda-Kenya and Botswana-South Africa sovereign bond returns, partial interaction between Egypt and Morocco sovereign bond returns and no interaction between Ghana and Nigeria sovereign bonds markets. Thus, these results provide valuable implications for sovereign and corporate credit risk management, as well as strategy for monitoring and minimising negative effect of sovereign bond volatility spillover in Africa.
저자 : Ryumi Kim
발행기관 : 한국파생상품학회
간행물 :
선물연구
30권 4호
발행 연도 : 2022
페이지 : pp. 260-277 (18 pages)
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The turn-of-the-month (TOM) effect is observed as one of the seasonalities in many markets. The author examines the TOM effect in the KOSDAQ market and finds that the effect is significant. The TOM effect in the KOSDAQ market is not due to size, turn-of-the-year, turn-of-the-quarter or index rebalancing effect. The author also finds that individual and institutional traders do not trade and buy more stocks at the TOM than on the rest days, not consistent with existing explanations of the increased liquidity by individual investors or institutional window-dressing activity. When the author investigated the net buying volume and net turnover of each investor, the net volume and turnover of individual investors at the TOM were significantly lower than those on the other days, rejecting the hypothesis of their increased demand. Interestingly, net foreign volumes at the TOM are significantly higher than on the other days. Finally, using panel regressions, the author finds that stocks with a higher net buying volume of foreigners for theTOMperiod tend to have higher returns, while stocks with a higher net buying volume of individual traders for the TOM period are likely to have lower returns. The results confirm that the TOM effect is not due to the increased demand of individual investors. Instead, higher net buying volume by foreigners may partially cause the TOM effect. Therefore, this study contributes to the literature by revealing the presence of theTOMeffect in the KOSDAQmarket and the foreign role in the anomaly in the market even mainly traded by retail investors.
저자 : Sang Won Lee , Su Bok Ryu , Tae Young Kim , Jin Q. Jeon
발행기관 : 한국파생상품학회
간행물 :
선물연구
30권 4호
발행 연도 : 2022
페이지 : pp. 278-295 (18 pages)
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This paper examines how the macroeconomic environment affects the determinants of prepayment of mortgage loans from October 2004 to February 2020. For more accurate analysis, the authors define the timing of prepayment not only before the loan maturity but also at the time when 50% or more of the loan principal is repaid. The results show that, during the global financial crisis as well as the recent period of low interest rates, macroeconomic variables such as interest rate spreads and housing prices have a different effect compared to the normal situation. Also, significant explanatory variables, such as debt to income (DTI) ratio, loan amount ratio and poor credit score, have different effects depending on the macroenvironment. On the other hand, in all periods, the possibility of prepayment increases as comprehensive loan to value (CLTV) increases, and the younger the age, the shorter the loan maturity. The results suggest that, in the case of ultralong (40 years) mortgage loans recently introduced to support young people purchasing houses, the prepayment risk can be, at least partially, migrated by offsetting the increase in prepayment by young people and the decrease in prepayment due to long loan maturity. In addition, this study confirms that the accelerated time failure model compared to the logit model and COX proportional risk model has the potential to be more appropriate as a prepayment model for individual borrower analysis in terms of the explanatory power.
저자 : Jimin Hong
발행기관 : 한국파생상품학회
간행물 :
선물연구
30권 4호
발행 연도 : 2022
페이지 : pp. 296-308 (13 pages)
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This study investigates insurance demand in a two-period model when a decision-maker (DM) is averse to the ambiguity of loss distributions. This study derives sufficient conditions such that the ambiguity-averse DM purchases more insurance than an ambiguity-neutral one when the DM maximises the expected utility. It also derives each sufficient condition to increase insurance demand as ambiguity aversion, ambiguity and downside ambiguity increase, respectively.
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