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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> Multilateralism in Great Power Politics: Building Order or Inviting Conflict?

KCI등재SSCI

Multilateralism in Great Power Politics: Building Order or Inviting Conflict?

Shin-wha Lee , Jae Jeok Park
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권3호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2022년 09월
  • : 385-410(26pages)
Korean journal of defense analysis

DOI


목차

Introduction
Competing Views of Multilateralism: The United States vs. China
U.S.-China Rivalry for Global Hegemony in the UN Multilateral Frameworks
Conclusion
Notes
Notes on Contributors

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Though the United States and China emphasize the significance of multilateral frameworks, they have not departed from power politics. As the confrontation between U.S.-led and Chinese-style multilateralism intensifies, the practice of multilateral cooperation based on openness and responsibility is losing ground. In this context, this paper compares U.S.-led multilateralism and Chinese-style multilateralism to examine U.S.-China rivalry in multilateral mechanisms. It then zooms in on the rivalry in the context of the Indo-Pacific region. U.S. President Biden’s key strategy in his China policy is represented by the catchphrase “cooperate, compete, confront,” dubbed the “3C framework,” reflecting the complexities of U.S.-China relations. While the two states tend to show a mix of competition and cooperation relative to global multilateral mechanisms, they exhibit a mix of competition and conflict in the Indo-Pacific. The paper analyzes recent United States and Chinese approaches towards topical multilateral issues: on climate change issues for the former and on cybersecurity and advanced technology for the latter.

UCI(KEPA)

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • : 1941-4641
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2022
  • : 907


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34권4호(2022년 12월) 수록논문
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KCI등재 SSCI

1Kim Jong Un Regime's Nuclear-Missile Behavior and Kim Il Sung Memoir: A Strategic Culture Approach

저자 : Ildo Hwang

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 4호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 513-530 (18 pages)

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The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between changes in North Korea's foreign policy stance and the citation frequencies of the previous generations' discourse in the state-run media, based on the theoretical framework of strategic culture. As the methodologically most parsimonious and conspicuous means, this study selected Kim Il Sung's memoir, With the Century, for the key text of the country's strategic culture by referring to previous research; investigated Rodong Sinmun's citation frequencies of the memoir; and derived a relation between the number of citations and the country's annual nuclear and missile activities. Two variables' Pearson correlation coefficient (r) was .88 during the second half of Kim Jong Un's reign (2016-2020), allowing notable comparison with the coefficient of -.41 in the first half of the regime (2011-2015). The significant positive correlation suggests the possibility that Pyongyang has internalized a specific foreign policy perception frame since 2016, which includes maintaining a hanging-tough posture as a default from the previous generations, and entering into negotiations or dialogue defying the conventional wisdom. This logic may serve as a background element of resilience that makes the country return to the hardline attitude upon the occurrence of any slight change in situations.

KCI등재 SSCI

2Regional Security Order and South Korea-Japan Relations

저자 : Eunil Cho

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 4호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 531-553 (23 pages)

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This preliminary study focuses on the change in the regional security order caused by the U.S.-China competition and its impact on South Korea-Japan relations. The ongoing U.S.-China relations has expanded beyond the discussion of cooperation and competition between existing and emerging powers, as well as the debate over the influence and resilience of the U.S.-led liberal international order. The significance of the U.S.-China competition in the security order in East Asia depends on whether China will accept the existing U.S.-led bilateral alliance system and take a status quo attitude. As a result, the U.S. allies, South Korea and Japan, need to respond sensitively to the changing nature of the security order. In this vein, this study explains the East Asian security order as elements of power structure, institutions, and actors. In addition, it explains the emergence of China as a new hegemonic power due to the U.S.-China competition, the hub-and-spokes system changes according to the U.S. rebalancing policy, and the emergence of Trumpism. Through this, the author argues two claims. First, the change in U.S.-China relations has led to different expectations between Seoul and Tokyo for cooperation with the U.S., which has hindered bilateral cooperation between them. Second, divergent views on China also hinder South Korea-Japan cooperation. Through the Senkaku dispute between Japan and China and the missile deployment dispute between South Korea and China, the two countries later showed different directions in their policy toward China. In the current competitive situation, restrictions on South Korea-Japan relations are inevitable. However, if the opportunity to promote security cooperation between South Korea and Japan is sought, it will be able to show the cooperation of middle power countries that can develop the security order to mitigate the intensity of U.S.-China competition.

KCI등재 SSCI

3Liberalism's Puzzle: The Russo-Chinese Alliance in the Light of Russian Aggression against Ukraine

저자 : Stephen Blank

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 4호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 555-577 (23 pages)

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Sino-Russian relations evidently present a puzzle or quandary to foreign observers. In the wake of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, China has opted decisively to offer Russia limited but substantial political and informational support. But it has continued joint drills and exercises with Russia. The argument presented here states initial that despite an equivocation, these actions reveal that this relationship amounts to a de facto alliance of the two governments. The article begins with an analysis of China's reaction to the war in Ukraine, proceeds to discuss the issue of the nature of this relationship and the view that it is an alliance, and then proceeds to discuss the benefits of this alliance to both sides in regard to their defense industrial sectors and for China in regard to Taiwan.

KCI등재 SSCI

4Taiwan's Concepts of Military Strategy and Military Power Construction in Response to Chinese Threats

저자 : Myungjin Kim , Kwanhaeng Cho

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 4호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 579-602 (24 pages)

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The Taiwan Strait poses a risk of war at any time due to a combination of international political factors such as China's national strength, willingness to unify, Taiwan's independence, and the U.S.-China leadership competition. In this situation, this paper analyzed the scenario of China's invasion of Taiwan, and considered the comparison of military power on both sides and the direction of Taiwan's military power construction. In conclusion, the war in the Taiwan Strait is likely to trigger geopolitical conflicts between the United States and North Korea on the Korean Peninsula, and the ROK will have to respond to diplomatic and security challenges simultaneously. Therefore, we must face up to the fact that tensions and crises between the two sides in the Taiwan Strait are directly linked to the security crisis on the Korean Peninsula. It is necessary to closely monitor the conflict between the two sides and preemptively prepare diplomatic and security response strategies for each situation.

KCI등재 SSCI

5Cyber Cognitive Warfare as an Emerging New War Domain and Its Strategies and Tactics

저자 : Minwoo Yun , Eunyoung Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 4호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 603-631 (29 pages)

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Cognitive warfare has become the crucial war domain that determines the outcome of modern wars. Joseph Nye pointed out, “in today's war, it is not whose army wins, but whose story wins,” emphasizing the importance of narratives to occupy human minds and hearts. This has been repeatedly observed in the “War on Terror” in Afghanistan and Iraq-Syria and the Russia-Ukraine war in 2014 and 2022. The strategic importance of winning human cognition by the use of non-kinetic influence operation had been similarly emphasized in the propositions of fifth-generation warfare and Gerasimov's suggestions. By recognizing the importance of cognitive warfare, this paper attempts to address the concept of cognitive warfare and suggest strategic and tactical principles for its practical operation and use. The concept of cognitive warfare is still ambiguous, blurring together with related concepts such as psychological warfare, information warfare, cyberwar, active measures, and Reflexive Control. Besides, the substantial conceptual differences between the U.S.-West and Russia have added more confusion. Thus, some clarification to distinguish the concept of cognitive warfare from other related terms seems necessary. Meanwhile, neither has there been any concrete proposition of how cognitive warfare works strategically and tactically. The literature and earlier reports only introduced various specific effects and techniques of cognitive operations. Nevertheless, how these effects and techniques are strategically- tactically integrated and jointly applied for a cohesive cognitive military operation is yet to be proposed. This paper responds to two such issues of cognitive warfare. In future warfare, the weight of cognitive warfare is anticipated to increase further. Hopefully, this paper will be a stepping stone to rouse interest in cognitive warfare and the development of its strategies and tactics.

KCI등재 SSCI

6Bilateral Cyber Confidence Building Measures in Northeast Asia

저자 : Yoo In Tae

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 4호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 633-656 (24 pages)

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Under what conditions do countries form confidence building measures (CBMs) in the cyber domain? How do those conditions affect the frequency and type of cyber CBMs (CCBMs)? The extant literature surveys existing CCBMs, providing fragmented pictures of them at either the global, regional, or bilateral levels. Thus, there is a lack of systematically comparative perspectives between multiple efforts for states' cyber confidence-building. This deficiency implies that little to no research has been dedicated to analytical examinations of the development of CCBMs. The present article offers a framework to assess the development and theoretical arguments to understand its underlying causes. It argues that the willingness of political leaders affected by the international strategic-security context is a necessary condition, in addition to the cost-benefit calculation of policymakers, affecting the frequency and type of CCBMs. To examine the arguments, the present article overviews the global development of the discussion of CCBMs at the UNGGE and OEWG. Then it presents the networks of CCBMs in Northeast Asia where the staunchest alliances as well as fierce strategic-security competitions have taken hold in the emergence of the new cyber domain. Lastly, the article investigates the processes of bilateral CCBMs formation in three dyads between the United States and each of three states, namely, Russia, China, and Japan. The empirical findings support the theoretical arguments.

KCI등재 SSCI

7A South China Sea Conflict and the U.S.-ROK Alliance

저자 : Joel Wuthnow

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 4호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 657-670 (14 pages)

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China's “gray zone” tactics to intimidate rival claimants in the South China Sea have become a U.S. concern. Against a backdrop of a recently deepening U.S.- Philippines alliance, this article suggested a gray zone conflict scenario in which China blockades Filipino resupply vessels for Filipino marines on the Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal in a fictional late 2020s environment. In this case, the Philippines would likely request armed U.S. escorts for its resupply vessel. The United States. can formulate a middle-of-the-road position centered on diplomatic condemnation against China's provocations, between a strong response option and inaction to this gray zone conflict. Also, in this context, the United States would welcome the ROK's diplomatic and economic support. For example, the United States would expect the ROK to participate in U.S. diplomatic efforts by signing a joint statement through the Quad-Plus. In addition, the United States would also anticipate ROK assistance to help the Philippines cope with Chinese economic retaliation in the gray zone crisis.

KCI등재 SSCI

8A South China Sea Conflict and the ROK's Cooperation with the United States

저자 : Choong-koo Lee

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 4호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 671-686 (16 pages)

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Considering the ROK's regional cooperation with the U.S., mutual solidarity with ASEAN countries, and the SLOC security in the South China Sea, the ROK will support U.S. diplomatic efforts to bolster international norms in the South China Sea. Nevertheless, the ROK might be cautious about its full-blown or military support to the U.S., which could result in China's diplomatic protests and economic reprisals. In this regard, the ROK might prefer to participate in a joint statement through a NATO or UN-level entity rather than through the Quad-Plus that entails a significant risk of Chinese retaliation against regional neighbors. At the same time, the ROK will likely enhance its ODA to ASEAN countries after the gray zone crisis and strengthen its maritime security cooperation with the Philippines but is unlikely to participate in a U.S.-led group sail related to freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea.

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KCI등재SSCI

1Evolution of the U.S.-ROK Alliance, 1953-1978: A Historical Institutionalist Perspective

저자 : Inwook Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 339-361 (23 pages)

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What accounts for the pace, timing, and scope of the U.S.-ROK alliance's evolution? Through the prism of historical institutionalism, I construct a novel explanation for how the alliance, in particular its rule on operational control, has been subject to the confluence of internally generated dynamics, exogenous junctures, and historical processes. First, I illustrate how three crises―a coup in 1961, ROK forces deployment to Vietnam in 1965, and North Korea's provocations in 1968―were instrumental in exposing flaws and gaps, unanticipated in the original alliance design. Second, episodic analysis shows how each juncture temporarily loosened the structural constraints and allowed ROK to push for incremental revisions on U.S. vertical and unilateral exercise of operational control over ROK forces. Third, they collectively generated negative feedback, contributing to the establishment of more horizontal and institutionalized Combined Forces Command in 1978. The study highlights a client ally's agency and historical institutionalism's promise in understanding international security institutions.

KCI등재SSCI

2The ROK Amidst the “Second Cold War”: Implications of the Emerging Sino-Russian Condominium of Geostrategic Power in Eurasia

저자 : Tan Er-win , Kim Jangho

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 363-384 (22 pages)

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Putin's invasion of Ukraine comes amidst indications that Moscow and Beijing are pursuing a condominium of geostrategic power to dominate Eurasia, with North Korea as a regional partner. Although there is muted mistrust between all three countries, this is outweighed by their common interests in seeking to displace the U.S. role in the post-1945 rules-based order. It is also likely that Beijing and Moscow view North Korea as a useful regional partner that can be used to occupy U.S. attention. Moreover, Xi Jinping's ambitions to absorb Taiwan into China comes when U.S. ability to maintain its “Two War” capability is under question due to Washington's efforts to contain Russian expansionism. Such developments pose a challenge for the ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol. Although the ROK has historically focused on the land warfare threat posed by North Korea, the possibility of the United States coming to blows with China in an air-naval standoff over Taiwan could leave the ROK in an awkward position insofar as its alliance obligations to the United States are concerned. Such trends underscore the need for the ROK to increase joint planning with the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in planning for airnaval contingencies outside the Korean Peninsula.

KCI등재SSCI

3Multilateralism in Great Power Politics: Building Order or Inviting Conflict?

저자 : Shin-wha Lee , Jae Jeok Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 385-410 (26 pages)

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Though the United States and China emphasize the significance of multilateral frameworks, they have not departed from power politics. As the confrontation between U.S.-led and Chinese-style multilateralism intensifies, the practice of multilateral cooperation based on openness and responsibility is losing ground. In this context, this paper compares U.S.-led multilateralism and Chinese-style multilateralism to examine U.S.-China rivalry in multilateral mechanisms. It then zooms in on the rivalry in the context of the Indo-Pacific region. U.S. President Biden's key strategy in his China policy is represented by the catchphrase “cooperate, compete, confront,” dubbed the “3C framework,” reflecting the complexities of U.S.-China relations. While the two states tend to show a mix of competition and cooperation relative to global multilateral mechanisms, they exhibit a mix of competition and conflict in the Indo-Pacific. The paper analyzes recent United States and Chinese approaches towards topical multilateral issues: on climate change issues for the former and on cybersecurity and advanced technology for the latter.

KCI등재SSCI

4China's Progressive Military Modernization as Seen from the Wars Involving or Impacting It between 1950 and 2020

저자 : Ying Yu Lin

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 411-431 (21 pages)

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What distinguishes China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) from other countries' armies is the fact that the PLA was in existence, initially with a different name though, before the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the legitimate government of China, as opposed to the Republic of China (ROC) government, or the Nationalist government, that retreated to Taiwan after losing the Civil War. As an armed wing of the Communist Party of China (CPC) since its inception in 1927, the PLA has undergone a considerable transformation from a “millet plus rifles” force to one that Beijing can count on as a powerful backing for its “wolf warrior” diplomacy. The meaning behind all this is that China's military modernization efforts are paying off. Analyzing historical events in chronological order, this paper aims to find out how the wars involving or impacting China over the past seven decades, as well as specific international conflicts and China's domestic politics in the same period of time, have contributed to the PLA's modernization to date. The most recent round of military reform initiated by Chinese President Xi Jinping serves as a case for analysis in depth so as to have a better understanding of the PLA's modernization.

KCI등재SSCI

5Analysis of the Relations between Chinese Aircraft Carriers and the Maritime Order of the South China Sea

저자 : Xingxing Wang , Jiyong Zheng

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 433-452 (20 pages)

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China has gradually shifted its geopolitical focus from land-based control to sea-based developments out of both security and economic considerations. Marked by the official launch of its aircraft carriers a decade ago, China has dedicated resources to building up its navy as a blue water force rather than the offshore defensive force that it had primarily been until that point. Meanwhile, by serving as the pillar of sea power, these aircraft carriers will play more important roles in China's naval development, ultimately reshaping the global strategic picture of sea power. This article aims to explore the influence of Chinese aircraft carriers to maritime order of the South China Sea and strategic pattern of global sea power by analyzing the Chinese aircraft carrier fleet's operational design and the reconstruction of China's naval strategy. The presence of Chinese aircraft carriers in the South China Sea and their inherent combat capabilities has inevitably casted a subversive light on the region and brought the attention of the United States' and other regional actors' own activities and strategies for the region. This research has great significance for understanding China's grand strategic conception and practice on the South China Sea issue as well as the construction of a new maritime order in the context of China-U.S. competition.

KCI등재SSCI

6Bilateral Cooperation and Hedging in the Six-Party Talks

저자 : Andrei Golobokov

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 453-474 (22 pages)

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The relations between great and middle powers in the Six-Party Talks are a particularly pertinent case in which to discuss the success and failure of multilateral security institutions. Why was this series of negotiations successful at first, followed by a stalemate, and then collapsed after two decades? There are many studies that focus on the behavior of North Korea, China, and the United States from a power perspective. This paper argues that a high degree of cooperation at the bilateral level among the majority of participants is a determining factor for the success of the talks. Strong reciprocal engagements, which are called “thick reinforcements,” resulted in solid unity among participating states and decisive collective action. The research finds different effects caused by combinations of thick reinforcement and weak engagement across dyads. While a strong “contagion effect” contributed to the success of the talks, the occurrence of hedging generated “offsetting” and “neutralization” effects, which stagnated the discussions. This paper develops a new metric to measure the various combinations of bilateral relations among China, South Korea, Japan, Russia, and the United States. The paper finds that in addition to non-proliferation, bilateral engagement and unity are vital for resolving nuclear crises.

KCI등재SSCI

7Political Stability and Relocation of U.S. Military Bases in Okinawa: A Case Study Based on In-depth Interviews

저자 : Ryota Hiyane , Long Piao

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 475-492 (18 pages)

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Japan and the United States have been paying particular attention to political stability in Okinawa because of their national defense, security, and other interests, especially regarding the so-called “China threat.” Okinawa has played an important role as the location for U.S. military bases for a long time, and 2022 marks 50 years since Okinawa's return to Japan following the post-war U.S. occupation. Although Okinawa is now included in Japan's peace constitution, U.S. military related incidents continue, including a 1995 incident that incited a massive anti-base protest. Japan responded with a series of economic compensation measures for Okinawa; furthermore, Japan and the United States agreed to relocate the U.S. Futenma air base to another part of Okinawa, Henoko, to stabilize the base politics. However, the over-concentration of U.S. military bases in Okinawa has caused major dissatisfaction among the residents. This paper therefore utilized the Japan's Futenma base relocation process and its governance as a research case by employing the methods of firsthand literature, discourse analysis, and in-depth interviews to analyze the factors of political stability and base relocation. The results of this research found the following three factors―more direct compensation, unique history, and the Henoko environment―that made the relocation of the Futenma base to Henoko possible.

KCI등재SSCI

8Nontraditional Security Diplomacy between China and Japan

저자 : Imran Ali Sandano

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 493-512 (20 pages)

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This study takes the argument that nontraditional security (NTS) diplomacy can provide the essential window of opportunity for China and Japan to move beyond traditional diplomatic history. However, NTS issues have become dominant in reforming bilateral relations between China and Japan, though there is no fixed edge in nontraditional security. To reveal, it explores the NTS diplomacy with the importance of nontraditional security issues as substance for the expansion and development of two leading economies. The non-military and transboundary character of NTS threats have constrained courtiers to pursue more substantial levels of security integration. This study argues that the significance of NTS diplomacy is twofold; first, it avoids sensitive historical hostilities and finds common ground for cooperation on NTS threats that traditional approach of diplomacy apparently is unable to envisage. Second, security interdependence approach can turn traditional diplomatic relations of China and Japan into a more conciliatory and prominent path. While NTS threats like natural disasters, environment degradation, and economy crisis have been taken as case studies to provide empirical evidence and significant opportunities for both rival states. This article, to some extent, describes the dynamic between traditional, nontraditional, and nontraditional security diplomacy through China-Japan relations.

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