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국방대학교 안보문제연구소> The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA)> An Analysis of the State of North Korea’s Human Security and the Possibility of Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation

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An Analysis of the State of North Korea’s Human Security and the Possibility of Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation

Ilsoo Bae , Jiwon Yun
  • : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소
  • : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 27권1호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2022년 06월
  • : 98-113(16pages)
The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA)

DOI


목차

I. Introduction
II. The State of Human Security in North Korea
III. Progress of Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation and Impediments
IV. Possibilities of Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation in Terms of Human Security
V. Conclusion
References

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초록 보기

This article aims to examine the elements of the crises and challenges of South-North Korean cooperation after the sixth nuclear test in North Korea in 2017 and to consider the possibility of South-North Korean cooperation concerning human security and the actual state of human security in North Korea in the sectors of welfare and food. Most importantly, the welfare and food sectors have become the most important issue of human security in North Korea due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These are directly connected to its survival accompanied by urgency and sensitivity. Welfare and food support are considered a matter in the field that can achieve cooperation without any strong objection from North Korea in addition to international cooperation for humanitarian purposes. If these forms of South-North Korean cooperation become possible, they could become the trigger that opens the gate of communication in the South-North Korean relationship that is fixed with chronic welfare and food problems in North Korea and the relief of the economic sanctions in North Korea as prescribed by the UN and the US. The possibility of South-North Korean exchange through enhanced human security may be expanded to the relief of North Korean sanctions for the assurance of humanitarian activity, international cooperation, and governance construction. At the same time, if South-North Korean cooperation is approached from a human security point of view, it may create momentum that results in the settlement of peace on the Korean Peninsula by acting as a catalyst that could relieve the problem of welfare and food faced by North Korea and transform the hardened South-North Korean relationship into a more conversational paradigm.

UCI(KEPA)

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • :
  • : 반년간
  • : 2671-6860
  • :
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1996-2022
  • : 338


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This thesis is a study on the ROK-US-Japan space cooperation plan to solve the security crisis on the Korean Peninsula caused by the increase in China's space threat and North Korea's ICBM launches. South Korea, the U.S., and Japan's space activities cooperation began with cooperation for the development of pure space science and technology in the past and is developing into space security areas such as joint space exploration cooperation, response to space threats, and strengthening defense space capabilities. By revitalizing the space cooperation organization between South Korea, the United States, and Japan, it will be possible to cope proactively with space threats from neighboring countries. The strengthening of space cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan will advance the security of the Korean Peninsula and the development of space science and technology between South Korea, the United States, and Japan.

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Recent interactions between China and the United States have displayed intense competition between the two great powers and signaled intensified instability in Asian waters: A collision between a Chinese fighter and a U.S. Navy EP-3 in 2001, harassment of Chinese vessels to the survey ship USNS Impeccable in 2009, and a dangerous encounter between a U.S. naval warship, Decatur, and a Chinese naval warship, Lanzhou, near the Spratly Islands in 2018. These skirmishes in Asian maritime areas have aroused great interest from scholars and practitioners who study conflictual behaviors between the two great powers, the United States and China. This research focuses on how naval power dynamics between the United States and China influence their conflictual behaviors in Asian waters. Similar to the hegemonic stability arguments, as the challenger (China) decreases a naval power gap with the dominant state (the United States), the former becomes dissatisfied with and questions the existing order, which increases uncertainty over Asian waters. Empirical results show that as China modernizes its naval power and reduces a naval power gap with the United States, the number of conflictual behaviors over maritime claims in Asia increases.

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This article examines the nexus between economic ties and security on the Korean Peninsula by discussing three causal mechanisms. First, economic ties increase opportunity costs to constrain the two Koreas' conflict behavior. Second, inter-Korean economic ties allow either or both to send a costly signal about their resolves during a crisis. Third, economic ties transform domestic interests and preferences in favor of cooperation. Through these analytical lenses, the past operation at the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) did not clearly show its pacifying effect on security on the Korean Peninsula due to its low opportunity costs, weak signaling, and stalled transformation of interests and preferences in both countries. Those who support the liberal peace process with hope for the KIC resumption need to articulate these mechanisms from a long-term perspective while acknowledging the marginal impact of pacifying security effect in the short term. Without measures to improve its efficiency of operation and earn domestic support, the KIC, if reopened, would remain liberals' unfulfilled promise.

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Why do leaders double down on wars and other unpopular foreign policies that the public opposes? Criticism of costly wars creates a dilemma for decision-makers as both maintaining and changing existing strategies have negative consequences for their prospect of remaining in office. To resolve this dilemma, leaders may opt to 'gamble for resurrection' to achieve victory. While valid, existing arguments that adopt the rationalist approach about the preference of leaders and the informative function of polls rely on narrow assumptions about decision-making. Psychological mechanisms broaden our understanding of how difficult policy choices are made. Specifically, this article contends that the psychological pressures created by the public's negative assessments of the competence of leaders constitute a threat to leaders' self-esteem, which, in turn, triggers psychological defensive mechanisms. Common defensive mechanisms, including reaction formation, isolation, and denial, make it more likely that leaders commit further to failing wars and unsuccessful foreign policies. These mechanisms are substantiated through an analysis of the Bush administration's Surge in Iraq in 2007. The article contributes to the literature by highlighting additional pathways through which public opinion impacts foreign policy decision-making, not only through electoral consequences but also through implicit signals regarding the public's views on leaders' ability to lead.

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Over the past two decades, non-kinetic effects have become core to the warfare undertaken by democratic countries. International security and human rights issues are now prominently at the forefront of international discourse, and these political areas have influenced profoundly military applications of force. Accordingly, the strategic environment of warfare has shifted; military strategists are now forced to avoid lethality in warfare wherever possible. In contrast, asymmetric enemies, like international terrorist groups, have tended to show their military power. In this new paradigm, the United States and its allies are shifting military doctrines away from traditional concepts such as overwhelming force or air superiority and are seeking new ways to protect international peace without avoidable casualties and collateral damage. This study argues that non-kinetic effects-based operations will shape these new strategies in the next era of international security and human rights.

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A recent study on the effect of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula argues that it will not cause instability in the country by showing that no North Korean military provocation is anticipated after the withdrawal. However, I theorize that U.S. forces reduction will, rather, create relatively more peaceful circumstances because North Korea strategically will see to avoid any instability that may stop the withdrawal, which is not North Korea's real intention. Based on this concept of strategic avoidance, this paper hypothesizes a negative relationship between U.S. force reduction and North Korean military provocation, and between the actual size of the U.S. forces and the peaceful behavior of North Korea. The result indicates that peace after force reduction can be explained by strategic avoidance, which means that temporary peace is not North Korea's genuine intention but a byproduct of its devious tactics that aim to have fewer U.S. boots on the ground.

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6An Analysis of the State of North Korea's Human Security and the Possibility of Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation

저자 : Ilsoo Bae , Jiwon Yun

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This article aims to examine the elements of the crises and challenges of South-North Korean cooperation after the sixth nuclear test in North Korea in 2017 and to consider the possibility of South-North Korean cooperation concerning human security and the actual state of human security in North Korea in the sectors of welfare and food. Most importantly, the welfare and food sectors have become the most important issue of human security in North Korea due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These are directly connected to its survival accompanied by urgency and sensitivity. Welfare and food support are considered a matter in the field that can achieve cooperation without any strong objection from North Korea in addition to international cooperation for humanitarian purposes. If these forms of South-North Korean cooperation become possible, they could become the trigger that opens the gate of communication in the South-North Korean relationship that is fixed with chronic welfare and food problems in North Korea and the relief of the economic sanctions in North Korea as prescribed by the UN and the US. The possibility of South-North Korean exchange through enhanced human security may be expanded to the relief of North Korean sanctions for the assurance of humanitarian activity, international cooperation, and governance construction. At the same time, if South-North Korean cooperation is approached from a human security point of view, it may create momentum that results in the settlement of peace on the Korean Peninsula by acting as a catalyst that could relieve the problem of welfare and food faced by North Korea and transform the hardened South-North Korean relationship into a more conversational paradigm.

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7A study on North Korea's Hypersonic Missile Development: Threat Analysis and Suggestions for the South Korean Military

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This paper attempts to assess the threats from North Korea's first Hwasung-8 hypersonic missile test in 2021 and another hypersonic missile test undertaken in January 2022. Through examination of the current status, purpose, and capability of North Korea's hypersonic missile development, we evaluate the current status and threat of North Korea's hypersonic missile development and review the countermeasures of the South Korean military.
Hypersonic missiles constitute a new weapon system currently being developed in some technologically advanced countries, including the United States, Russia, and China. They are dubbed a game-changer of war because it is impossible to defend them with a general ballistic missile defense system. Thus, North Korea's hypersonic missile test was a big shock to South Korea. North Korea's development of hypersonic missiles should be established through objective evaluation of South Korea's missile defense system. Since hypersonic missiles are different from ordinary ballistic missiles in terms of their capabilities, such as speed and maneuver, it is difficult to establish a counter-defense weapon system. North Korea's development of hypersonic missiles poses a threat to South Korea's peace and security; thus, a response is needed. First, South Korea should analyze North Korea's intentions behind developing hypersonic missiles and its threats. Second, South Korea should strengthen its missile capabilities to cope with military threats from North Korea's development of hypersonic missile technology. Lastly, South Korea should surpass North Korea in the hypersonic missile development.
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KCI등재

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One of the most worrisome aspects of the current war on Ukraine is its possibility of escalating to a nuclear level. How likely is Moscow to employ nuclear weapons in the conflict? Is this crisis more or less likely to get worse than other nuclear crises? I try to find out some answers by looking at specific characteristics of the ongoing nuclear crisis. The paper begins with a basic framework of the nuclear crisis developed by Bell and Macdonald. Then I delve into the development and evolution of Russia's nuclear strategy. By applying Bell and Macdonald's theoretical framework to the ongoing nuclear crisis, I cautiously conclude that the current crisis is closer to the staircase model, where a nuclear first use incentive is moderate to relatively high, and crisis controllability is high. Therefore, the possibility of the current crisis escalating to a nuclear level may not be so high. There is certainly a risk of analyzing an ongoing crisis, and future research needs to address theoretical and practical shortcomings.

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