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한국군사학회> 군사논단> 우크라이나 전쟁의 엔드게임 시나리오 전망과 한국에의 함의

우크라이나 전쟁의 엔드게임 시나리오 전망과 한국에의 함의

Prospects of End-Game Scenarios of the Russia’s Armed Aggression against Ukraine and Their Strategic Implications to the ROK

송승종 ( Song Seong-jong )
  • : 한국군사학회
  • : 군사논단 110권0호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2022년 06월
  • : 9-31(23pages)
군사논단

DOI


목차

Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 다양한 우크라전 엔드게임 시나리오
Ⅲ. 우리에게 주는 함의와 시사점

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The armed aggression by Russia against Ukraine which started from 24 February this year is still underway for nearly three months. Despite all the fog of war surrouding the war, one thing that can be said for sure is that Russia’s behavior is a baltant and barbaric illegal activities that fly in the face of international law, including the United Nations’s Charter. The primary purpose of the United Nations is to protect peace and security of global community through upholding international law, maintaining coordination of international peace and security, as well as facilitating cooperation for economic development. Among others, the most important mission of safeguarding responsibility to maintain peace and security falls on the shoulder of the Security Council, and Russia is one of its five permament members that are endowed with voto powers. Nonetheless, Russia violated Article 2.4 of die UN Charter which says that “All Members shall refrain…from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.” By analogy, international community established a police station (Security Council) to protect banks (member states) from bad guys (aggressiors). But Russia, to the contrary of its responsibilities and duties under the UN Charter, flagarantly committed a bank robbery (armed attack against Ukraine) under the bright daylight.
The purpose of this paper is to raise a critical question that “What End-Game the Ukraine War would have in the future?” and to explore potential answers to the inquiry by means of postulating several scenarios that are deemed actionable and feasible. Chapter 2, followed by Chapter 1 will try to analyze four scenarios including ① Fall of Ukraine and the Eatablishment of Puppet Regime by Russia, ② Occupation of Donbass and Imposing Neutality Status on Ukraine, ③ Long War and Expansion of War over the Border, ④ Russian Defeat and Putin's Demise, ⑤ Russia’s Default due to International Sanctions. Lastly, in Chapter 3, I will attempt to draw lessons to be learned and strategic implicatons to the ROK on the basis of research result.

UCI(KEPA)

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • :
  • :
  • : 계간
  • : 1229-1609
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  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1994-2022
  • : 1428


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1나폴레옹의 러시아 원정 실패 요인과 유산

저자 : 주은식

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 112권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 4-9 (6 pages)

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2유엔의 분쟁 개입과 분쟁 이후의 문제

저자 : 임윤갑 ( Yoonkap Lim )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 112권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 13-37 (25 pages)

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According to a study on the characteristics of a country experiencing ongoing internal strife, the country did not have an easy time getting out of the conflict's muck. Since a few years ago, they have noticed an increase in external intervention aimed at rebuilding post-conflict and peacebuilding processes in nations like Afghanistan, Columbia, Somalia, and Syria. However we also observed that the dispute recurred in these processes. After the conflict was over, security, development, and humanitarian issues were surely debated.
The number of conflicts surged during the cold war era and temporarily ended with the fall of the Soviet Union. The UN Security Council made great efforts to intervene and engage in the conflict, and these efforts helped to significantly limit the number of conflicts for 20 years. However, the Arab Spring and die activities of ISIL caused this trend to reverse. The highest point in terms of conflicts occurred in 2020.
The Security Council has banned the use of military force to overthrow governments, and this type of intervention should be distinguished from those made in the aftermath of a conflict. To maintain global peace and security, the UN charter assigns primary responsibility. Although the UN Charter's chapter VI only gives limited authority to peacefully resolve disputes, it makes dear how Chapter VII engages in military action. However, when the Cold War ended, the UN Security Council continued to take action even though there was little to no indication that domestic conflict was escalating. They saw civil war and human rights violations as threats to global peace and security.
In light of this, we should carefully consider the following four factors during the internal conflict transition period. First, the principle should be divided into short-term and long-term interventions since the operational and policy implications can change often before and after a conflict. The transition of conflict will be determined based on how and when it ends, and you will discover the solution as a result Therefore, the intervention starts either in the midst of a fight or after the violence has temporarily stopped. Third, the outcome of the conflict will have significant consequences whether it is resolved militarily or by a peace treaty. The methods of intervention will therefore be chosen in light of the findings.

3동해(East Sea) 병기를 위한 투쟁의 여정과 과제

저자 : 최양선 ( Choi Yangsun )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 112권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 38-62 (25 pages)

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The first time the name of the East Sea appears in the history and literature is in B.C. 239 in China. The name Sea of Japan appeared on western map in 1602 after 1,841 years since Korean had been using the name East Sea.
The name of the East Sea was replaced by the Sea of Japan internationally during the period of Japanese colonial rule. The International Hydrographic Bureau was established in 1921, and published S-23(The Limits of Oceans and Seas) in 1929. This S-23 was revised in 1937 and 1953 respectively. After that, without objection, the Sea of Japan is used on most charts and related world maps.
In 1991, South	and North Korea joined the UN and South Korea was able to act as a member of the UN. In 1992 at die 6th UN Conference on the Standardization of Geographical Names, the Korean government raised the unfairness of using the name Sea of Japan alone, and In 1994, requested the IHO Secretariat to correct this issue, too. These were the first request for die dual naming issue. In 2020 the IHO Secretary-General decided to introduce a coded unique identifier system instead of a geographical name such as the Sea of Japan as a modernisation plan for S-23, and this decision adopted at the 2nd IHO General Assembly in 2020. It has been 26 years since 1994 when the Korean government raised this issue to the IHO.
The proportion	of using dual naming of the East	Sea and Sea of Japan was about 2.8% worldwide in 2000,however, in 2020, it is understood that this exceeded 40% throughout our 30 years of efforts. Despite the efforts of the Korean government, major countries such as the USA, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China as well as the United Nations Secretariat have used the Sea of Japan exclusively for various reasons, such as it is still a name that is widely used worldwide and difficult to change the practice.
The tasks to overcome these obstacles of the international community are; Setting the final goal of dual naming at 60% on the maps and materials, Promote off-line negotiations of choice and concentration by meeting in person, Setting up an systematic cooperation system with the control tower and relavant organizations, Encourage domestic and international geographical names experts and ordinary Koreans to participate actively in dual naming campaign.

4북핵 도전과 한국의 응전전략

저자 : 정경영 ( Chung Kyung-young )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 112권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 63-94 (32 pages)

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On September 8, 2022, North Korea legalized nuclear armament allowing nuclear preemptive strike. North Korea conducted exercise of tactical nuclear warhead's employment, large-scale fighters power projection, missile fire against south of Northern limit Line, along with Interncontinental Ballistic Missile successful experimental fire in the past three months.
Policy recommendations to the ROK-U.S. alliance for comprhensive response strategy against North Korea's nuclear challenge are as follows: revision of Korea Three Pillar Systems consisting strategic striking system, Korea Air Missile Defense and Korea Massive Punishment & Retaliation reinforced by cyber war and poltical war; combat readiness to cope with nuclear war and reinforcement of extended deterrence by consultation with integrated deterrence, emergency redeployment of tactical warheads to the Korean Theater Operations, ROK nuclear armament and North-South Korea nuclear arms control, and linkage strategy between denuclearization and unification process on the Korean peninsula. Finally the study awakens the South Korean people, government, and forces to defend their country for themselves, along with the robost alliance.

5중국의 반접근·지역거부(A2AD) 전략 고찰과 동북아 안보에 대한 시사점

저자 : 조현규 ( Cho Hyeon-gyu )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 112권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 95-116 (22 pages)

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The A2AD(Anti-Access/Area Denial) strategy has been the name of the U.S. strategy for China's dominance of the Western Pacific region since 2000. China's A2AD strategy is part of military action against the United States and its allies, and if war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait in the future, China is likely to face US or US allies intervening in the battlefield. Therefore, the purpose of the A2AD strategy is to use 'asymmetric operations' to threaten, delay, even deter, and destroy the major virtual enemy the U.S, to check and deter U.S. military intervention in the Western Pacific, and affect its ability to operate if the U.S. intervenes.
As China develops A2AD strategies, the Army is accelerating the transition from 'regional defense to full-scale operation5, the Navy is“from offshore defense to open sea defense', and the Air Force is 'from territorial air defense to combination of attack and defense'.
The 10 steps for China's A2AD are as follows.① Attack the enemy's C4ISR, ② Attacks on enemy military and civilian computer network systems, ③ Electromagnetic pulse attacks on the enemy's electronic facilities, ④ Attack the enemas space satellite system, ⑤ Attack the enemy's logistic support and transport system, ⑥ Attack the U.S. air force base, ⑦ Block specific battlefields and establish no-navigation zones for aircraft and vessels, ⑧ Attack enemy sea routes and naval bases, ⑨ Attack the enemy aircraft carrier, ⑩ Prevents the use of U.S. allies' bases.
The weapons equipment that China will use to carry out the A2AD is as follows. First, there are DF-21D ballistic missile, DF-26 ballistic missile, and DF-17 supersonic ballistic missile possessed by Rocket Forces. Second, the Navy has three aircraft earners, J-15 shipplane, Type 055 cruiser, and Type 052D Aegis destroyer. There are also HQ-9 long-range air defense missile, Type 095 and Type 096 nuclear-powered submarine, JL-3 SLBM and 'Carrier Killer' DF-21D ballistic missile. Third, the Air Force will deploy J-20 stealth aircraft, J-16 fighter, SU-35 fighter, and H-6 bomber.
The U.S. capability of military intervention relied on large-scale water power of the U.S. Navy, represented by aircraft carriers. However, because of its vulnerability to China's A2AD strategy, including anti-ship ballistic missiles, the U.S. proposed the 'Air-Sea Battle'as a countermeasure and later renamed the 'JAM-GC'(Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons). Meanwhile, the U.S. Army presented a new concept of operation called a 'Multi-Domain Battle' in 2016.
China is expected to continue its efforts to neutralize U.S. hegemony in East Asia through A2AD strategy, while expanding into the Western Pacific In the future, China's march in East Asia, the U.S.-China strategic competition, and the direction of the U.S.-Western checks on China are expected to further spiral the regional competition and security situation.

6한반도 미래전 양상과 한국형 모자이크전 수행방안

저자 : 이종영 ( Lee Jongyoung )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 112권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 117-141 (25 pages)

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This research report suggested ① the necessity of introduction of K-Mosaic Warfare, ② the concept of operation execution, ③ the development direction of doctrine and unit structure to realize it.
First, it is necessary to introduce a new warfare method that can respond to the North Korean hybrid warfare.
Second, it is necessary to develop the operational concept to achieve superiority in all areas.
Third, the interoperability of the alliance and our strategic value may be re-evaluated depending on whether or not the Mosaic Warfare, which is the US concept of future warfare, is adapted.
The operational concept of the K-Mosaic Warfare ① creates an operational environment for decision-centered warfare based on collaboration between humans and machines, ② quickly combines and recombines small-scale joint forces dispersed in multiple areas, breaking away from the concept or independent operations for each service, ③ It can be summarized as carrying out integrated joint operations in all areas.
First, in the field of doctrine, the K-Mosaic Warfare concept has a status as a new military system, and should play a role in suggesting a new operational doctrine and direction for organizational formation.
Second, in the field of unit structure, the Joint Chiefs of Staff controls up to crisis management and presents the creation of a mosaic joint unit operated as a theater reserve in wartime.

7우크라이나의 비대칭전 분석

저자 : 배진석 ( Bae Jin-seok ) , 김성환 ( Kim Seong-hwan )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 112권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 142-161 (20 pages)

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Russia-Ukraine war shows various examples how technology is changing the nature of war and what effect appears when a new Russian-Ukrainian operational concept is grafted onto technology. In particular, a typical asymmetric warfare in that Ukraine, a weak country, was able to overcome its inferiority by conducting new operations using commercial technology through a combination of an old weapon system and a supported new weapon system despite its inferiority in the quality and quantity of its forces. It can be seen that performed as Toft revealed in his study, weak actors won nearly 30% of all asymmetric warfare over a period of about 200 years, and that the frequency with which weak actors win increased over time is particularly. It is judged that this has great implications for us in terms of changes in war patterns caused by the rapid spread of commercial technology. In this regard, it should be learned that 'North Korea can challenge the old conventional weapons in a different way through a combination of a low-cost weapon system and commercial technology'.

8북한의 군사혁신과 “상쇄와 강압전략” - 미국과 분한의 군사혁신 간 유사성을 중심으로 -

저자 : 임철균 ( Lim Cheul-kyun )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 112권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 162-189 (28 pages)

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DPRK has declared the completion of its nuclear force and has been carrying out a series of military innovations since then. Already in 2020 and 2021, through two military parades and one defense exhibition, the results of military innovation at home and abroad have been declared, shocking not only Korea but also the world. Such a move by North Korea, which has deviated from the basic principles it has been pursuing, is a moment that requires a new evaluation of NK's military strategy and military innovation. This study examines the outcome of NK's military innovation by examining the innovation of ground forces and strategic forces, and examines the historical background and necessity of implementing the 1st and 2nd offset strategies among the US military innovations, a case of repeated global military innovations. By classifying four independent variables, comparison with NK's military innovation, similarities and differences were examined. Since NK's military innovation is mostly similar to that of die US, NK's military strategy can be viewed as an offsetting strategy for NK. However, unlike the United States, the United States at the time of the second offset strategy and the present NK are in an ironic situation where NK has an overwhelming advantage in nuclear power with the enemy, South Korea, but is in a starring inferiority to the extended deterrence of the ROK-U.S. alliance. Therefore, this difference was analyzed as a determinant of how NK's military strategy in the second nuclear era differs from the strategy in the first nuclear era centered on major powers.

9지상전투차량 스텔스 구현 방향

저자 : 김한수 ( Kim Han-su )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 112권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 190-208 (19 pages)

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Various means to effectively detect and destroy ground combat vehicles continue to develop, and the interest and importance of stealth technology to counter these threats are increasing. In the text, we would like to examine threats to ground combat vehicles and present the direction of combat platform development by applying stealth technology based on this. Setting an appropriate level of stealth capability is required first to develop and develop a future stealth combat platform, and efforts should be made to continuously develop new stealth-related materials, accumulate technology, and develop application technologies that can be applied to various platforms. In the future battlefield, the “Stealth Combat Platform” will operate as a key force for the Army, and we hope more research on related technologies will be conducted.

10임무형지휘 개념을 적용한 한국전쟁사례 분석

저자 : 이훈 ( Lee Hun )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 112권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 209-240 (32 pages)

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Mission Command, Which was born in the Prussian army in the early 19th century and was inherited and developed by the German army, is a general military idea and Command method based on the mission, it can be said “a command ice method in which a senior has wide freedom in performing his mission within the commander's intention, and the doctrine, leadership, that it is a comprehensive concept including Operation, education and training, and is a holistic command thought rooted in the german military.”
The Army Rok defense and applies mission command as a concentration method of command control that leads the changing situation by strengthening the delegation of decision-making authority and decentralization in subordinate units through the 'Army's command philosophy'.
This is Germany, which fest developed mission command, It is expressing its willingness to apple it wider and deeper than the United States, which is currently actively encouraging mission command.
This study was conducted during the Korea War (1950. 6. 25.~1953. 7. 27.) Excavated cases in which the concept of mission command was applied (considering the situation in which the concept of mission command was insufficient at the time).
By analyzing it, it is to promote an in-depth understanding of mission command and develop practical educational methods to contribute to the application and development of mission command of the Army.

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저자 : 김태업

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 110권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 4-6 (3 pages)

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2우크라이나 전쟁의 엔드게임 시나리오 전망과 한국에의 함의

저자 : 송승종 ( Song Seong-jong )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 110권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 9-31 (23 pages)

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The armed aggression by Russia against Ukraine which started from 24 February this year is still underway for nearly three months. Despite all the fog of war surrouding the war, one thing that can be said for sure is that Russia's behavior is a baltant and barbaric illegal activities that fly in the face of international law, including the United Nations's Charter. The primary purpose of the United Nations is to protect peace and security of global community through upholding international law, maintaining coordination of international peace and security, as well as facilitating cooperation for economic development. Among others, the most important mission of safeguarding responsibility to maintain peace and security falls on the shoulder of the Security Council, and Russia is one of its five permament members that are endowed with voto powers. Nonetheless, Russia violated Article 2.4 of die UN Charter which says that “All Members shall refrain…from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.” By analogy, international community established a police station (Security Council) to protect banks (member states) from bad guys (aggressiors). But Russia, to the contrary of its responsibilities and duties under the UN Charter, flagarantly committed a bank robbery (armed attack against Ukraine) under the bright daylight.
The purpose of this paper is to raise a critical question that “What End-Game the Ukraine War would have in the future?” and to explore potential answers to the inquiry by means of postulating several scenarios that are deemed actionable and feasible. Chapter 2, followed by Chapter 1 will try to analyze four scenarios including ① Fall of Ukraine and the Eatablishment of Puppet Regime by Russia, ② Occupation of Donbass and Imposing Neutality Status on Ukraine, ③ Long War and Expansion of War over the Border, ④ Russian Defeat and Putin's Demise, ⑤ Russia's Default due to International Sanctions. Lastly, in Chapter 3, I will attempt to draw lessons to be learned and strategic implicatons to the ROK on the basis of research result.

3우크라이나 사태 이후 한반도 북핵 전망

저자 : 조해성 ( Hae-sung Cho )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 110권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 32-53 (22 pages)

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After the collapse of the Soviet Union h the past, Ukraine gained independence and naturally had nuclear weapons deployed to it. However, the United States, Russia, and Western countries desired Ukraine to denuclearize. Owing to its sudden independence, Ukraine needed diplomatic, political, and economic support from several countries, including the United States, Russia, and other Western countries, by giving up its nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, Ukraine was supposed to be guaranteed security through the Budapest Memorandum”. However, in February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and military support from the United States and other Western countries did not send military aid. This Ukraine crisis will cause North Korea contemplate by declaring the completion of nuclear power in 2017 and obtaining regime security and dissolving economic sanctions from the United States and the international community based on nuclear weapons. Because South Korea is facing a truce with North Korea, prospects for North Korea's nuclear are a matter of concern in order to ensure national security against North Korea's nuclear threats after the Ukraine crisis. Therefore, this study attempts to infer the future nuclear prospects of North Korea by comparing and analyzing the progress of denuclearization in Ukraine, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and North Korea's nuclear development from a perspective of diplomacy, intelligence, military, and economic sectors.

4미ㆍ중 패권경쟁시대 일본의 해양전략 - '해상자위대 전략지침'을 중심으로 -

저자 : 유병준 ( Byungjun You ) , 정재호 ( Jaeho Jung )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 110권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 54-93 (40 pages)

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Until December 2019, it was not easy for everyone to know exactly what the “Marine Strategy of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force” was. Therefore, in December 20195 the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force officially announced the 'Strategic Guidelines' to improve this. In this paper, we will look at the Maritime Strategy of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, focusing on this officially announced 'Strategic Guidelines'.
The maritime strategic goal of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force is to “shaping” a strategic environment favorable to Japan in the Indo-Pacific region and to suppress disputes by- balancing power. To this end, the Maritime Self-Defense Force places importance on die following three things. The first is to work on environmental “shaping” as a national tool of defense diplomacy to eliminate threats and establish a strategic environment favorable to Japan. The second is to strengthen the ability to curb gray areas and prevent them before things develop into conflict. Finally, the third is to have the ability to win the armed war as part of the integrated power in case of emergency.

5일본 자위대의 전자전(電磁戰) 능력 과거와 현재. 그리고 미래

저자 : 이용식 ( Lee Yongsik ) , 이원준 ( Lee Wonjun ) , 류기필 ( Ryu Keepill ) , 최성희 ( Choi Sunghui )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 110권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 94-127 (34 pages)

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During the Russo-Japanese War in the early 20th century, Japan recognized the importance of electronic warfare, such as the withdrawal of the Japanese fleet due to the Russian Navy's electronic warfare attack at Lushun Port. Japan plans to install and operate state-of-the-art electronic warfare equipment to monitor China, which is in territorial dispute in the South China Sea, and North Korea, which is developing nuclear and missile, and conduct electronic warfare in the mid- to long-term. Japan has the world's third-largest electronic warfare capability and operates 33 aircraft that can be operated directly or indirectly with electronic warfare. It eliminated aging YS-11EB electronic electricity and introduce two RC-2s with the latest IT technology by 2022.
Ground SIGINT facilities collect and process all communication and non-communication signals from neighboring countries transmitted and received from the ground, sea, and air at a total of 19 stations across Japan in the HF, VHF, UHF, and SHF bands. By 2023, eight ground-based electronic warfare missions will be established, extending from Hokkaido in the north to Okinawa in the south.
Although there are no signs of development of UAV of electronic warfare, the Japan plans to introduce four global Hawk Block 30 (I) types of RQ-4B high-altitude UAV from 2022 with COMINT and ELINT collection sensors h accordance with the Japan's defense plan. The RQ-4 Block 30 is equipped with Advanced Signals Intelligence Payload (ASIP), a communication and non-communication signals collection sensor, and can be used as ELINT and ESM equipment.
The QZSS satellite, a regional satellite navigation system in Japan, consists of some of the same frequencies, signal structures, and diffusion code formats to be interchangeable with the U.S. GPS system. Because the QZSS system uses highly encrypted code, it is equipped with receivers for Izumo aircraft carriers, submarines, combat ships, rescue ships, attachments, aircraft, ground operational systems, and missiles as it is not disturbed by enemy interference or counterfeit signals.
Japan does not seem to have any specific plans for acquiring SIGINT satellites to collect electronic signals yet, but it is strongly aware of the need. Since Japan continues to emphasize territorial protection through space and it is difficult to collect electronic signals from neighboring countries geopolitically, it is expected to secure its own SIGINT satellite by 2030 due to abundant funds, world's best rocket and IT technology, and dose alliance with the U.S.
Future war is developing into a soft kill concept rather than a hard kill concept of mass destruction. Conventional weapons, a high-tech hardware system, are important, but the development and operation of the electronic system that determines victory or defeat in the early stages of the war is one of Japan's most important strategies to secure leadership in East Asia. In order to overcome the ability to carry out electronic warfare and signal information warfare,which are currently inferior to neighboring countries such as China and Russia, we will gradually develop an electronic warfare system by establishing a mid- to long-term plan with dose cooperation from the U.S.

6한국군 전자기스펙트럼작전 발전방향

저자 : 이홍식 ( Lee Hong Sik )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 110권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 128-152 (25 pages)

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Modem warfare has the characteristic of conducting wars on multi-domain. In such multi- domain operations, electromagnetic spectrum operations occupy a fairly important position. The United States, China and Russia have been reforming in the areas of doctrine and operational concepts, organizations, weapons systems and technologies to improve electromagnetic spectrum operational capabilities.
In this study, we analyzed the electromagnetic spectrum operation capabilities of neighboring powers and presented the direction of development of our armed forces based on this. A top-level organization that can control all resources is needed to be able to carry out strategic-level electromagnetic spectrum operations, and the concept of offensive electromagnetic spectrum operations must be established. Through such efforts, our military will also be equipped with electromagnetic spectrum operation capabilities that transcend the all domain.

7한국군 비상근 예비군 제도 발전방향 연구

저자 : 고시성 ( Ko Si-seong )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 110권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 153-181 (29 pages)

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The purpose of this thesis is first, to derive the logic of the necessity of introducing a system for the part-time reserve army system for ROK Armed Forced to form a social consensus. Second, we present a plan for the future development of the ROK Armed Forced's part-time reserve army system. Third, it is intended to present an appropriate salary calculation method that can attract excellent employees while minimizing the budget burden, and to derive an efficient operation and management plan to induce conscientious service of part-time reservists.
The results of the study are as follows.
In order to successfully promote the 'part-time reserve army system',we would like to propose a step-by-step implementation in consideration of the effectiveness of legal amendments and the pay system. The first stage is to continuously improve and supplement the 'part-time service system for cadre reserve forces' that the Army has applied since 2014. The second stage is the concept of expanding the part-time service system of the reserve forces promoted in the first stage. The third stage is settlement stage of the reserve army system. The third stage is to introduce a part-time reserve army system and a full-time reserve force system, similar to the US reserve force system, based on the effectiveness evaluation result of the second stage. To this end, as the most important task is to form a consensus among the people, it will be necessary to develop persuasion logic through fierce discussions and tests within the military and various public relations measures are required.

8SCO 확장을 통해서 본 Quad의 지향점과 한국의 선택

저자 : 윤호랑 ( Yoon Ho Lyang )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 110권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 182-207 (26 pages)

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China changed their foreign policy to reformation and opening which leaded them to compete against US, while Biden administration strengthens its relationship with alliances in Indo-Pacific area through Quad. Quad is expand its realm and make diversity in cooperation. In this report, we will review the SCO's example to clarify the direction of the policy and the choice Republic of Korea should make in this international environment.
In 1990s, after the dissolution of the USSR, President Jiang Zhe-Min made Shanghai-5 with Central Asian countries to deal with border and Islam issues which developed into SCO In 2001. SCO having connection with core interest was expanded in Hu Jin-Tao era, and Xi Jin-Ping is using SCO in BRI to restraint US and strengthen China's influence. SCO have expanded after the departure, and especially democratic India participated in it to make SCO approach universal value and open attitude. However, conflicts between member state including China and Russia, and Central Asia's alienation with participation of India came up as a problem to solve.
Meanwhile, US used multilateral cooperation including Quad with the states which share alliance, value, and law to conquest China's challenge over democracy. However, there is different voices in Quad member state about how to restraint china, so flexible and resilient partial meeting was needed per agenda. US expanded its relationship with whoever shares democratic values and posture against China. Also agenda is expanded to make the country not reluctant to participate because of the anti-Chinese frame. US promised infrastructure investment and economic support to whom damaged by BRI. The most important thing for Quad is to coordinate different opinions in member state and to do so, it is needed to diversify cooperation agenda to make multilateral agreement.
Now Republic of Korea should free itself from 'Strategic Vagueness'. ROK is the alliance of US and its priority is democratic value and ideology, so it has to go with US-led international organization. In conclusion, it Is the most needed attitude for Korea to be with the organization with shares comprehensive value and law.

9최근 한미 정상회담 분석을 통한 한미동맹의 발전 전망

저자 : 봉영식 ( Youngshik Daniel Bong )

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 간행물 : 군사논단 110권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 208-232 (25 pages)

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This article examines the alliance persistency between South Korea and the United States by comparing the two most recent summit meetings between the allies. The summit meetings in 2021 and 2022 provide breakthrough in the evolution of the alliance. The content of both summits is remarkably similar despite ideological differences between the Korean president. The summits also laid basic groundworks for the alliance to be steadily transformed into a global and comprehensive security partnership that is not confined to military issues but also promotes economic, technological and value-oriented cooperation.

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