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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> The Fourth Industrial Revolution and China’s Defense Innovation in Intelligent Systems

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The Fourth Industrial Revolution and China’s Defense Innovation in Intelligent Systems

Youngjune Chung , Shuting Dai
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권2호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2022년 06월
  • : 249-273(25pages)
Korean journal of defense analysis

DOI


목차

Introduction
Material, Financial, Technological Inputs in Defense Innovation
Processes: Procedures, Routines, and Interactions in Defense Innovation
Institutional Mechanisms: Actors, Incentives, and Norms in Defense Innovation
Conclusion
Notes
Notes on Contributors

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초록 보기

In the new era of the U.S.-China strategic rivalry, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is attempting to transform itself into a world class defense unit by constructing a self-organizing system of defense innovation. Translating its global lead in digitization and economic achievements into military power will entail the integration of critical and emerging technology into its existing weapon clusters and processes, the fielding of new and modified equipment, and the reinforcement of industrial applications such as robotics and autonomous vehicles. Building on developments in the PLA’s reform and modernization, this study conducts a systemic examination of China’s intelligentization strategy to prevail in the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR). Hard and soft inputs that shape China’s ecosystem of defense-innovation, including material, financial, and technological inputs, process factors of plans, strategies, and acquisition, and institutional factors have been examined.

UCI(KEPA)

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  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • : 1941-4641
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2022
  • : 899


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KCI등재 SSCI

1Evolution of the U.S.-ROK Alliance, 1953-1978: A Historical Institutionalist Perspective

저자 : Inwook Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 339-361 (23 pages)

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What accounts for the pace, timing, and scope of the U.S.-ROK alliance's evolution? Through the prism of historical institutionalism, I construct a novel explanation for how the alliance, in particular its rule on operational control, has been subject to the confluence of internally generated dynamics, exogenous junctures, and historical processes. First, I illustrate how three crises―a coup in 1961, ROK forces deployment to Vietnam in 1965, and North Korea's provocations in 1968―were instrumental in exposing flaws and gaps, unanticipated in the original alliance design. Second, episodic analysis shows how each juncture temporarily loosened the structural constraints and allowed ROK to push for incremental revisions on U.S. vertical and unilateral exercise of operational control over ROK forces. Third, they collectively generated negative feedback, contributing to the establishment of more horizontal and institutionalized Combined Forces Command in 1978. The study highlights a client ally's agency and historical institutionalism's promise in understanding international security institutions.

KCI등재 SSCI

2The ROK Amidst the “Second Cold War”: Implications of the Emerging Sino-Russian Condominium of Geostrategic Power in Eurasia

저자 : Tan Er-win , Kim Jangho

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 363-384 (22 pages)

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Putin's invasion of Ukraine comes amidst indications that Moscow and Beijing are pursuing a condominium of geostrategic power to dominate Eurasia, with North Korea as a regional partner. Although there is muted mistrust between all three countries, this is outweighed by their common interests in seeking to displace the U.S. role in the post-1945 rules-based order. It is also likely that Beijing and Moscow view North Korea as a useful regional partner that can be used to occupy U.S. attention. Moreover, Xi Jinping's ambitions to absorb Taiwan into China comes when U.S. ability to maintain its “Two War” capability is under question due to Washington's efforts to contain Russian expansionism. Such developments pose a challenge for the ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol. Although the ROK has historically focused on the land warfare threat posed by North Korea, the possibility of the United States coming to blows with China in an air-naval standoff over Taiwan could leave the ROK in an awkward position insofar as its alliance obligations to the United States are concerned. Such trends underscore the need for the ROK to increase joint planning with the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in planning for airnaval contingencies outside the Korean Peninsula.

KCI등재 SSCI

3Multilateralism in Great Power Politics: Building Order or Inviting Conflict?

저자 : Shin-wha Lee , Jae Jeok Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 385-410 (26 pages)

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Though the United States and China emphasize the significance of multilateral frameworks, they have not departed from power politics. As the confrontation between U.S.-led and Chinese-style multilateralism intensifies, the practice of multilateral cooperation based on openness and responsibility is losing ground. In this context, this paper compares U.S.-led multilateralism and Chinese-style multilateralism to examine U.S.-China rivalry in multilateral mechanisms. It then zooms in on the rivalry in the context of the Indo-Pacific region. U.S. President Biden's key strategy in his China policy is represented by the catchphrase “cooperate, compete, confront,” dubbed the “3C framework,” reflecting the complexities of U.S.-China relations. While the two states tend to show a mix of competition and cooperation relative to global multilateral mechanisms, they exhibit a mix of competition and conflict in the Indo-Pacific. The paper analyzes recent United States and Chinese approaches towards topical multilateral issues: on climate change issues for the former and on cybersecurity and advanced technology for the latter.

KCI등재 SSCI

4China's Progressive Military Modernization as Seen from the Wars Involving or Impacting It between 1950 and 2020

저자 : Ying Yu Lin

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 411-431 (21 pages)

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What distinguishes China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) from other countries' armies is the fact that the PLA was in existence, initially with a different name though, before the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the legitimate government of China, as opposed to the Republic of China (ROC) government, or the Nationalist government, that retreated to Taiwan after losing the Civil War. As an armed wing of the Communist Party of China (CPC) since its inception in 1927, the PLA has undergone a considerable transformation from a “millet plus rifles” force to one that Beijing can count on as a powerful backing for its “wolf warrior” diplomacy. The meaning behind all this is that China's military modernization efforts are paying off. Analyzing historical events in chronological order, this paper aims to find out how the wars involving or impacting China over the past seven decades, as well as specific international conflicts and China's domestic politics in the same period of time, have contributed to the PLA's modernization to date. The most recent round of military reform initiated by Chinese President Xi Jinping serves as a case for analysis in depth so as to have a better understanding of the PLA's modernization.

KCI등재 SSCI

5Analysis of the Relations between Chinese Aircraft Carriers and the Maritime Order of the South China Sea

저자 : Xingxing Wang , Jiyong Zheng

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 433-452 (20 pages)

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China has gradually shifted its geopolitical focus from land-based control to sea-based developments out of both security and economic considerations. Marked by the official launch of its aircraft carriers a decade ago, China has dedicated resources to building up its navy as a blue water force rather than the offshore defensive force that it had primarily been until that point. Meanwhile, by serving as the pillar of sea power, these aircraft carriers will play more important roles in China's naval development, ultimately reshaping the global strategic picture of sea power. This article aims to explore the influence of Chinese aircraft carriers to maritime order of the South China Sea and strategic pattern of global sea power by analyzing the Chinese aircraft carrier fleet's operational design and the reconstruction of China's naval strategy. The presence of Chinese aircraft carriers in the South China Sea and their inherent combat capabilities has inevitably casted a subversive light on the region and brought the attention of the United States' and other regional actors' own activities and strategies for the region. This research has great significance for understanding China's grand strategic conception and practice on the South China Sea issue as well as the construction of a new maritime order in the context of China-U.S. competition.

KCI등재 SSCI

6Bilateral Cooperation and Hedging in the Six-Party Talks

저자 : Andrei Golobokov

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 453-474 (22 pages)

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The relations between great and middle powers in the Six-Party Talks are a particularly pertinent case in which to discuss the success and failure of multilateral security institutions. Why was this series of negotiations successful at first, followed by a stalemate, and then collapsed after two decades? There are many studies that focus on the behavior of North Korea, China, and the United States from a power perspective. This paper argues that a high degree of cooperation at the bilateral level among the majority of participants is a determining factor for the success of the talks. Strong reciprocal engagements, which are called “thick reinforcements,” resulted in solid unity among participating states and decisive collective action. The research finds different effects caused by combinations of thick reinforcement and weak engagement across dyads. While a strong “contagion effect” contributed to the success of the talks, the occurrence of hedging generated “offsetting” and “neutralization” effects, which stagnated the discussions. This paper develops a new metric to measure the various combinations of bilateral relations among China, South Korea, Japan, Russia, and the United States. The paper finds that in addition to non-proliferation, bilateral engagement and unity are vital for resolving nuclear crises.

KCI등재 SSCI

7Political Stability and Relocation of U.S. Military Bases in Okinawa: A Case Study Based on In-depth Interviews

저자 : Ryota Hiyane , Long Piao

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 475-492 (18 pages)

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Japan and the United States have been paying particular attention to political stability in Okinawa because of their national defense, security, and other interests, especially regarding the so-called “China threat.” Okinawa has played an important role as the location for U.S. military bases for a long time, and 2022 marks 50 years since Okinawa's return to Japan following the post-war U.S. occupation. Although Okinawa is now included in Japan's peace constitution, U.S. military related incidents continue, including a 1995 incident that incited a massive anti-base protest. Japan responded with a series of economic compensation measures for Okinawa; furthermore, Japan and the United States agreed to relocate the U.S. Futenma air base to another part of Okinawa, Henoko, to stabilize the base politics. However, the over-concentration of U.S. military bases in Okinawa has caused major dissatisfaction among the residents. This paper therefore utilized the Japan's Futenma base relocation process and its governance as a research case by employing the methods of firsthand literature, discourse analysis, and in-depth interviews to analyze the factors of political stability and base relocation. The results of this research found the following three factors―more direct compensation, unique history, and the Henoko environment―that made the relocation of the Futenma base to Henoko possible.

KCI등재 SSCI

8Nontraditional Security Diplomacy between China and Japan

저자 : Imran Ali Sandano

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 493-512 (20 pages)

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This study takes the argument that nontraditional security (NTS) diplomacy can provide the essential window of opportunity for China and Japan to move beyond traditional diplomatic history. However, NTS issues have become dominant in reforming bilateral relations between China and Japan, though there is no fixed edge in nontraditional security. To reveal, it explores the NTS diplomacy with the importance of nontraditional security issues as substance for the expansion and development of two leading economies. The non-military and transboundary character of NTS threats have constrained courtiers to pursue more substantial levels of security integration. This study argues that the significance of NTS diplomacy is twofold; first, it avoids sensitive historical hostilities and finds common ground for cooperation on NTS threats that traditional approach of diplomacy apparently is unable to envisage. Second, security interdependence approach can turn traditional diplomatic relations of China and Japan into a more conciliatory and prominent path. While NTS threats like natural disasters, environment degradation, and economy crisis have been taken as case studies to provide empirical evidence and significant opportunities for both rival states. This article, to some extent, describes the dynamic between traditional, nontraditional, and nontraditional security diplomacy through China-Japan relations.

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KCI등재SSCI

1Kim Jong Un's Policy Direction or “Line”: Heading for Radicalization?

저자 : Won Gon Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 161-182 (22 pages)

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Since Kim Jong Un gained power, he introduced several policy directions, or “lines.” There are different interpretations of the nature of the lines, especially in light of Max Weber's “routinization of leadership.” Unlike Kim Jong Il, some studies argue that Kim Jong Un has tried to routinize this authority to transcend charismatic leadership. Especially, his introduction of the “new strategic line of everything for the economy” in April 2018 is an ultimate example of his attempt to routinize leadership. However, this article challenges the argument in three ways. First, the interpretation of Kim Jong Un's lines, including the “economy first” strategic line proposed in April 2018, is not enough to represent the efforts to the routinization of authority. Second, after the breakup of the Hanoi summits in 2019, North Korea has moved to radicalize its policy. Finally, North Korea could choose not to routinize its authority in a more fundamental sense. By analyzing the critical events such as the Third Plenary Meeting of the Seventh Central Committee on April 20, 2018, the Fifth Plenary Meeting of the Seventh Central Committee in December 2019, and the Eighth Party Congress in January 2021, the paper has demonstrated that Kim Jong Un has continued to implement, and even strengthen some radical policies.

KCI등재SSCI

2Bargaining and BATNAs: Why Did Moon Jae-in's Unprecedented Détente Effort Nonetheless Fail to Change the Inter-Korean Stalemate?

저자 : Robert E. Kelly

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 183-205 (23 pages)

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South Korean President Moon Jae-In pushed harder for a transformational inter-Korean détente than any of his predecessors. That his tremendous effort still failed demands explanation. This paper suggests four interlocking reasons, derived from bargaining theory applications in foreign policy analysis: 1) The North Korean Kim Jong Un regime, secure behind its nuclear weapons and domestic repression, preferred its status quo BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) to the capacious American demand for complete, verifiable, irreversible disarmament. Pyongyang can afford to wait for the Americans to offer better terms. 2) South Korean centrist and conservative 'veto-players,' trading on the high popularity of the U.S. alliance in South Korea, blocked Moon from pursuing a Korea--only negotiating track after U.S.-North Korea negotiations stagnated--including a 'future veto' threat to roll back Moon's détente when conservatives next won the South Korean presidency. 3) U.S. domestic players, of unique importance in South Korea because of the tight alliance, also resisted. Moon and U.S. President Donald Trump were unable to win over the deeply skeptical U.S. foreign policy community. 4) Cognitively, Trump himself undercut Moon's effort as much he helped it. Trump's impatience, disinterest in detail, and general disorganization crippled him as a reliable negotiating counterparty for Moon (and Kim). This paper concludes with a narrative of these causes dynamically interacting to illustrate the collapse of Moon's initiative.

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This article examines the potential risks and benefits for South Korea of entering into a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Memorandum of Understanding (RDP MOU) with the United States. The purpose of an RDP MOU is to promote rationalization, standardization, and interoperability of defense equipment with foreign allies. To achieve this purpose, an RDP MOU calls for a mutual commitment not to discriminate in the area of defense procurement (supplies, services, and R&D), primarily by waiving “buy national” laws that make it difficult for one party to participate in the defense procurement market of the other. First, as a background, the article examines the international agreements under which the two countries have made certain commitments to open their procurement markets. Second, the article examines the U.S. domestic preference laws (“Buy American” laws), which serve as institutional barriers to defense trade. Third, the overall purpose and functions of RDP MOUs are studied, including whether and to what extent they have benefited other U.S. allies. Lastly, the article examines how South Korea should weigh the risks and benefits of entering into an RDP MOU. While arguing that the defense MOU would greatly strengthen the ROK-U.S. alliance, the article nevertheless concludes that South Korea should conduct a proper prefeasibility study, including a cost-benefit analysis for each covered defense- related procurement, before opening up its defense industry.

KCI등재SSCI

4Background, Rationale, and Nature of Biden Administration's Strategic Ambiguity towards Taiwan

저자 : Shih-kai Lin , Hung-chang Chung

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 231-248 (18 pages)

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The Biden administration has in general been operating both “strategic ambiguity” and “strategic clarity,” prompting the question: Is the United States being strategically ambiguous or strategically clear towards Taiwan? This paper believes the discussion should start with the clarification of “U.S. policy regarding Taiwan.” However, U.S. policy towards Taiwan involves the highly sensitive One-China policy. Thus, the United States will evaluate its “core interest” in relation to China when dealing with the One-China policy, as mishandling it may trigger a war between the United States and China or the rest of the world. This is the reason why the United States must devise its Taiwan policy at a macro-level and cautious manner.

KCI등재SSCI

5The Fourth Industrial Revolution and China's Defense Innovation in Intelligent Systems

저자 : Youngjune Chung , Shuting Dai

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 249-273 (25 pages)

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In the new era of the U.S.-China strategic rivalry, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) is attempting to transform itself into a world class defense unit by constructing a self-organizing system of defense innovation. Translating its global lead in digitization and economic achievements into military power will entail the integration of critical and emerging technology into its existing weapon clusters and processes, the fielding of new and modified equipment, and the reinforcement of industrial applications such as robotics and autonomous vehicles. Building on developments in the PLA's reform and modernization, this study conducts a systemic examination of China's intelligentization strategy to prevail in the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR). Hard and soft inputs that shape China's ecosystem of defense-innovation, including material, financial, and technological inputs, process factors of plans, strategies, and acquisition, and institutional factors have been examined.

KCI등재SSCI

6A Janus-Faced Security Landscape: An Analysis of the East Asian Security Environment

저자 : Nam Kyu Kim , Jaebeom Kwon

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 275-299 (25 pages)

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East Asia has become more salient on the international stage, economically and strategically. Considering its significance, many scholars have paid attention to the regional security environment. They consider East Asia a peaceful region because there has been no inter-state war, and attempt to explore factors preventing wars in East Asia. We believe that the focus on the absence of war would not only fail to provide a whole picture of the current East Asian security condition but also give a false impression that this region is stable and secure. Accordingly, we attempt to provide a detailed descriptive look at the current security environment of East Asia by focusing on various aspects of the security environment. We show that East Asia suffers from intense tensions, while it has avoided serious interstate conflict. By drawing on various perspectives, we attempt to explain the seemingly contradictory phenomenon in this region, a co-existence of intense hostility and negative peace. The U.S.-China competition, territorial disputes, and the ineffectiveness of regional institutions have intensified intra-regional tension, undermining potentials for developing security cooperation. Nevertheless, the security role of the United States and a high level of intra-regional economic integration have prevented the occurrence of serious militarized conflict.

KCI등재SSCI

7The Spatial Diffusion of Suicide Attacks

저자 : Kiyoung Chang , William Reed

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 301-318 (18 pages)

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This paper studies the diffusion of suicide bombings as a tactic employed by terrorist groups from 1981 to 2008. The empirical strategy is motivated by the literature on the diffusion of innovation. Specifically, this paper builds on the literature on the diffusion of policies across states to develop hypotheses about the spread of suicide attacks across space and over time. We use data from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) to evaluate hypotheses about the diffusion of suicide bombings. The results suggest a consistent and robust relationship between geography and the diffusion of suicide bombings. Successful suicide attacks appear to diffuse across borders and to increase over time.

KCI등재SSCI

8The Diplomatic and Military Relations between Korean Provisional Government and the United States: Mutual Perception of the Eagle Project

저자 : Cha Hyeonji , Kim Doo-jin

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 319-338 (20 pages)

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This paper aims to examine the Eagle Project by analyzing the phase of forging mutual trust between the Korean Provisional Government (hereafter the KPG)'s army, the Korean Independence Army (韓國光復軍, KIA) and the Office of Strategic Services related to the project. Furthermore, this paper concludes that the Eagle Project was neither a trivial preparation nor an unfortunate process on both sides of the Korean and American memories. However, the plan involves what factors would contribute to the formation and transformation of the alliance. During the Pacific War, it was demonstrated that the relationship between the Kuomintang government and the KPG became a major factor in the KPG & KIA's readiness to cooperate with the United States. To them, building rapport with the United States was connected to enhancing their military autonomy. This conviction was largely based on the KPG & KIA's great confidence in the United States and based on their preference for liberal democracy. The influence of the tense situation in the Pacific region made the OSS, the KPG and KIA to recognize the need for their role in developing cooperation between the United States and Korea.

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