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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> Five Futures for a Troubled Alliance

KCI등재SSCI

Five Futures for a Troubled Alliance

Jennifer Lind , Daryl G. Press
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권3호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2021년 09월
  • : 357-380(24pages)
Korean journal of defense analysis

DOI


목차

Introduction
The Alliance Today
Alliance under Pressure
Possible Futures for U.S.-ROK Relations
A Nuclear Alliance?
Conclusion
Notes
Notes on Contributors

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초록 보기

Many observers have noted that relations between the United States and South Korea have become increasingly strained. In this article, to contribute to discussions about the future of the alliance we (1) describe the source of current tensions: the allies’ increasingly divergent strategic priorities with respect to China, and progress in North Korea’s nuclear and missile technology. Second, (2) we outline different ways to fix the problems in the alliance, by outlining alternative visions in addition to the status quo. We consider an enhanced alliance, the option of “boots off the ground,” and no alliance. None of these, we argue, addresses the key pressures on the alliance nor advances the allies’ key national security interests. We conclude that the best way forward is a fifth option, which is maintaining the alliance while South Korea acquires an independent nuclear capability.

UCI(KEPA)

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • : 1941-4641
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2021
  • : 875


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KCI등재 SSCI

1Regional Security Order Transition and the ROK's Order Management: Critique and Suggestions

저자 : Ki-hyun Bae

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 557-577 (21 pages)

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The Republic of Korea (ROK) is one of the non-major powers most closely interested in the nature of the hierarchical security order in East Asia and its transition, but little academic attention has been drawn to examining its diplomatic positions or policy directions as it responds to and shapes the regional security order. Drawing on realist insights into order transition and their implications for security relations between major and non-major powers, this paper examines the nature of the security order in East Asia and critically discusses how the ROK's approach to order management has been of only limited success in addressing the structural risks growing out of the changing natures of the regional order. It also discusses the collective order management of its Southeast Asian neighbors as a comparable case that tackles similar risks differently. The paper concludes with a discussion of how a stronger partnership with Southeast Asia could complement the limitations of the ROK's approach to regional security order management, particularly in this time of a rapid transition to a bipolar East Asia.

KCI등재 SSCI

2Do Election Cycles Matter for Foreign Policy? A Case Study of U.S. Normalizing Relations with Former Adversaries

저자 : Jungkun Seo

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 579-596 (18 pages)

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The interaction between domestic politics and foreign policy has recently grasped a great deal of scholarly as well as public attention. The existing literature primarily focuses on a host of domestic actors―the president, the legislature, the media, public opinion, interest groups and political parties―and how they connect with the making of foreign policy. This paper introduces a new angle―the impact of electoral cycles on foreign policy. When politicians mull over dramatic foreign policy breakthroughs, they consider how the timing of policy achievements can help their political standing. Of particular importance to the effect of political timing is the election cycle, which presidents and lawmakers strategically consider and yet, cannot arbitrarily change in representative democracies. In this paper, I give special attention to the post-midterm election period in the United States when the sitting president attempts to make a dramatic comeback from a political setback. The three historical case studies involve the U.S. normalization of relations with former adversaries, namely China, Vietnam, and Cuba. The context of American politics provides for a convenient experimental backdrop by which politicians face elections every other year with presidential contests every four years and congressional elections in between. Dealing with such politics of time, this article offers analytical analogies while not necessarily setting out to prove causal mechanisms. This firstcut research attempts to shed a new light on the way election strategy and foreign policy are linked in representative democracies and global communities.

KCI등재 SSCI

3President Bush's Foreign Policy Decision Making after the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks

저자 : Alex Soohoon Lee

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 597-615 (19 pages)

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In the United States, the President is the principal actor in foreign policy making. This was certainly the case after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the deadliest attack on U.S. soil. In the field of international relations, however, most of the research regarding U.S. foreign policy after the 9/11 terrorist attacks have focused on evaluating or criticizing the war on terror, while the national security decisions that led to the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq have been under-researched. Previous research has left much to be desired; this research aims to unearth what empowered President Bush to make such foreign policy decisions. To do so, an analytical framework that combines cognitive and structural approaches1 has been constructed. Analyzing cognitive aspects and the factors concerning the international security environment after the 9/11 terrorist attacks adequately explains the foreign policy decisions made in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. In this light, the research reaffirms the dominance of the President in U.S. foreign policy making.

KCI등재 SSCI

4North Korea's Nuclear Command and Control Estimate: Variables and Trends

저자 : Ildo Hwang

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 617-638 (22 pages)

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For the purpose of estimating North Korea's nuclear command and control, this study first reclassified the key variables of the previous studies into two axes: external security factors and domestic political factors. Next, it traced Pyongyang's changes in these variables after Kim Jong Un came to power, especially from the point of accelerated nuclear and missile development in 2016. Those findings led to the confirmation that the North is under elevated pressure towards the delegative model, given the security situation and the necessity for doctrine and posture upgrade. In the realm of internal political factors, it can be said that the party's control over the military has been strengthened compared to the Kim Jong Il period, and there were few specific signs that Chairman Kim and policy-making groups are more concerned about military coups or disobedience than before. Comparing this with Pakistan that has institutionalized the pre-delegation of authority to use tactical nuclear weapons, etc., the pressure imposed on North Korea toward the delegative model must be relatively greater and the pressure toward the assertive model may be smaller.
In order to verify the above theoretical discussions, this research traced the North's mention of nuclear capabilities and the composition and content of institutional devices and military exercises after Kim Jong Un came to power. This draws the conclusion that Pyongyang has been making significant efforts in recent years to respond to the changes in the major external variables discussed earlier. In particular, the North has been grappling with the time-urgency issue and repeatedly emphasized the clear distinction between tactical and strategic weapons, which can signal that Pyongyang will separate the delegative and assertive command and control models according to the type of nuclear capabilities in the near future.

KCI등재 SSCI

5China-U.S. Maritime Competition: Destined for Strategic Miscalculations?

저자 : Ahmed Bux Jamali , Hongsong Liu

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 639-663 (25 pages)

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The paper evaluates the key factors that have predominantly increased the maritime competition between the United States and China. The authors argue that, due to the diverging naval interests in the South and the East China Seas and the growing competition to acquire maritime security technology, the momentum of maritime rivalry has immensely escalated between the two states. Based on strategic maneuverability in maritime security, this paper evaluates the rising strategic ambiguity posed by China's anti-access area-denial (A2/AD) system vis-à-vis the United States. It further illustrates U.S. All Domain Operation (ADO) and China's rapid emergence as a maritime competitor in Asia. The evaluation demonstrates the repercussions of miscalculations and highlights that the perceived mutual rivalry has come to the point that both sides are muddling through the dynamics of misperception and security-dilemma scenario which has increased the likelihood of strategic miscalculations.

KCI등재 SSCI

6Iran and Afghanistan between China and India: Great Power Competition for Regional Connectivity in South and Central Asia

저자 : Younkyoo Kim , Stephen Blank

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 665-687 (23 pages)

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The recent Sino-Iranian agreement of March 2021 has been seen mainly in terms of its impact upon Irano-American and Irano-Chinese relations and the Middle East. This article, instead explores how this agreement affects the Indo-Chinese rivalry now occurring in South and Central Asia. It examines in great detail India's efforts to augment its position in Central Asia and how it has assigned Iran a prominent place in this campaign. Yet it failed to make the most of its chances, leaving the door open to China to step in and by this agreement undermine India's (and Russia's position) in South and Central Asia. The article focuses on trade and transportation issues as expressed in contending inter-continental trade and transport projects (the BRI and INSTC). But it concludes with an examination of the tie-in between the Sino-Iranian agreements and their overall implications of military and security issues throughout the Indian Ocean region and Central Asia. Thus, it ties together economic, trade, transportation, and security issues throughout South and Central Asia as well as the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

KCI등재 SSCI

7Reframing South Korea's National Cybersecurity Governance System in Critical Information Infrastructure

저자 : Do-kyung Kim , Soon-yang Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 689-713 (25 pages)

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The purpose of this article is to analyze the contemporary situation and underlying problems of South Korea's national cybersecurity system in the area of critical information infrastructure, then suggest relevant policy measures to tackle possible cyber-attacks upon critical information infrastructure. To this end, this article established the analytical framework consisting of the five-dimensional components of the governance system. This article analyzed the contemporary situation and underlying problems of Korea's national cybersecurity governance system in critical information infrastructure, according to the five dimensions of governance system: legal and institutional systems, administrative system, finance and budget systems, monitoring and evaluation systems, and public-private partnerships. This article exposed several underlying problems behind the contemporary national cybersecurity governance system of Korea across each dimension of governance, in order to suggest policy measures to tackle cyber-attacks in critical information infrastructure.

KCI등재 SSCI

8Why China Has Supported North Korea: An Asymmetrical Dependent Relationship between China and North Korea from 1995 to 2016

저자 : Yongjae Lee

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 715-733 (19 pages)

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North Korea has been China's socialist ally since the Korean War. Although North Korea's provocations like nuclear tests have damaged Chinese national interests, China has supported North Korea. This research project examines why China has supported North Korea by analyzing event data from the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS). After China became integrated in the global economy, it has regarded stability and peace much more than the strategic factors of North Korea and has not viewed North Korea as a balanced ally to help China maintain the balance of power since the 1990s. This work also attempts to examine whether or not a strategic reason still plays a role in China's approach toward North Korea. The empirical results demonstrate that when North Korea faced physical and nonphysical threats from the United States and its allies (South Korea and Japan) in Northeast Asia, China showed amicable behavior toward North Korea in order to save its buffer zone. However, China did not approach North Korea when it faced strategic disadvantages.

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KCI등재SSCI

1Five Futures for a Troubled Alliance

저자 : Jennifer Lind , Daryl G. Press

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 357-380 (24 pages)

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Many observers have noted that relations between the United States and South Korea have become increasingly strained. In this article, to contribute to discussions about the future of the alliance we (1) describe the source of current tensions: the allies' increasingly divergent strategic priorities with respect to China, and progress in North Korea's nuclear and missile technology. Second, (2) we outline different ways to fix the problems in the alliance, by outlining alternative visions in addition to the status quo. We consider an enhanced alliance, the option of “boots off the ground,” and no alliance. None of these, we argue, addresses the key pressures on the alliance nor advances the allies' key national security interests. We conclude that the best way forward is a fifth option, which is maintaining the alliance while South Korea acquires an independent nuclear capability.

KCI등재SSCI

2Between Pro-Market and Anti-Market: The Cold War and the Formation of South Korea's Economic System

저자 : Yong-chool Ha , Kyong Jun Choi

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 381-402 (22 pages)

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This study investigates the effects of the Cold War's security environment on the formation of state-business relationships and the institutional development of South Korea's economic system. By examining the government's military spending policies and the purveyance of military supplies to its army during the Cold War, this study shows how excessive defense spending and the government's military procurement policy affected the formation of an intermingled economic system in South Korea. An analysis of the interactions between the military and civilian economic actors in South Korea during the Cold War reveals the impact of overriding security concerns, high military spending, and no-bid contracts for military procurement on the country's state-business relationships and economic structures, which were characterized by a mixture of anti-market and pro-market systems.

KCI등재SSCI

3The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force in Space Warfare: With Available but Incomplete Capabilities

저자 : Yuan-chou Jing

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 403-427 (25 pages)

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Based on the military struggle readiness of Winning Informationized Local Wars, the PLA has underscored the need for dominance in space, looking for a privileged and commanding status in the context of space warfare. To further dictate the whole war, the PLA is currently devoted to the development of anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) to substantiate its Space Control Capability. The correlation between the PLARF and anti-satellite operations can be seen from two aspects. First, transformation of the military strategy towards the ideal of having both nuclear and conventional capabilities and deterring wars in all battlespaces in the wake of the recent military overhaul of the PLA markedly revealed Beijing's unwavering intent to force its influence into space. Second, empirical data of the PLARF's “reconnaissance, control and strike” joint construct and operational equipment showed that the PLARF has entered the developmental stage capable of undertaking successful anti-satellite operations. This study concludes that the PLARF is in charge of anti-satellite operations and then conduct this mission with the vertical commanding architecture from the Central Military Commission, Theatres, down to the PLARF units. This study also argues that for now and the foreseeable future, the PLA will focus all its efforts to integrate information links of the combat systems and extend the range of conventional ballistic missiles.

KCI등재SSCI

4Emerging China's Challenge to the United States in the Gulf and Implications for South Korea

저자 : Kangsuk Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 429-452 (24 pages)

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As the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies, South Korea has faced unprecedented pressure from both countries, and how it should respond has become a key issue. This study explores China's emergence as a challenger to U.S. dominance in the Gulf region and its implications for South Korea. Since the establishment of the Carter Doctrine in 1980, the United States has recognized the strategic importance of the Gulf and assumed the role of guardian to the entire region. However, President Obama's “Pivot to Asia” and Trump's retrenchment from costly foreign commitments marked a substantial shift in U.S. foreign policy. Consequently, this paper will assess the growing cooperation between China and the Gulf states in the midst of a perceived withdrawal of the United States from the region. It also attempts to reveal China's strategies that have the potential to challenge U.S. hegemony and growing U.S. vigilance against China's assertiveness in the region. By examining these questions, it is able to suggest implications for the South Korean government.

KCI등재SSCI

5Issues and Prospects of AI Utilization in the Defense Field: Organizational Capability, Technology Maturity, Institutional Congruence

저자 : Junghyun Yoon

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 453-479 (27 pages)

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Modern warfare is rapidly shifting to automation and networking of battlefields. Artificial intelligence technology is seen as a technological breakthrough for military innovation. However, in Korea, a number of constraints impede the practical use of artificial intelligence technology by the military, despite announced government plans. This study reports a survey about such various constraints, in terms of organizational capacity, technology maturity, and institutional congruence. The evaluation factors for each arm of service were designed to address issues specific to the national defense sector, and the results of the evaluation were analyzed through a survey of a group of experts, including military policy officers, representatives of the defense industry, and researchers. The results of the investigation showed that AI technology in the field of defense has not yet been established to the extent that it could replace a commander's decision-making. In order to improve these limitations, security issues related to data utilization, training of professional AI personnel, and measures to revitalize public-private cooperation should be solved first.

KCI등재SSCI

6The Future of the Korean Military Service System: Direction and Challenge for New Korean Military Service System Innovation

저자 : Byung-ook Choi

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 481-505 (25 pages)

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The discussion on the Korean military service system is the most controversial topic ahead of the Presidential election of March 2022 in the Republic of Korea. The change of the military service system has been discussed continuously in diverse backgrounds and contexts as it has a profound influence on the military and national society. The academic discussions on improving the military service system are generally divided into two options: transitioning to the All-Volunteer Military Service (AVMS) and maintaining the conscription service. However, discussions on the military service system are largely stagnant at the ideological and economic levels rather than rational ones. This study seeks ways to improve the ROK military service system facing the demographic cliff phenomenon beyond dichotomous thinking of the conscription service and the AVMS. The future military service system should lead the military structure innovation toward a technology-intensive army through reorganizing the military structure and reshaping the defense manpower system. Furthermore, the new Korean military system needs a change and innovation to secure national growth power in the low-birth and hyper-aging demographic cliff era. It is urgent to design and prepare a new Korean military service system based on the conscription system but expands the characteristics of the voluntary system.

KCI등재SSCI

7Utilization and Construction of Taiwan's Air Force against Chinese Military Threats

저자 : Kwan Haeng Cho , Chan Min Hong , Myung Jin Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 507-532 (26 pages)

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The relationship between China and Taiwan today is at the level of its greatest intensity since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. Chinese military actions against Taiwan are considered to be the greatest threats from the Taiwanese perspective. As Taiwan sees its air force as a key component of its overall military power, a study on ways Taiwan constructs its airpower based on strategic concepts seems extremely timely, serving as a potential reference point for various future conflict scenarios. Against this backdrop, this paper poses two research questions: 1) what are Taiwan's military strategy and relevant strategic concepts against Chinese military threats? 2) what are the concepts and directions behind utilizing and constructing its airpower to achieve its strategic concepts? This paper finds that Taiwan is currently constructing its airpower to achieve its military objectives with a defensive strategic concept. Understanding and examining Taiwan's security environment and military strategy with strategic concepts put forth by the Taiwanese Air Force could serve as a valuable resource for countries with similar military assets and security environments.

KCI등재SSCI

8Leadership and Public Service Motivation in the Military Organization: The Moderating Effect of Age

저자 : Young-gon Kim , David Shin

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 533-555 (23 pages)

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Drawing on survey data from 1,746 enlistees in the Republic of Korea military, this paper examines the moderating effect of age on the impact that the leadership of superiors have on their subordinates' public service motivation (PSM). Our analysis shows that transformational leadership and transactional leadership both have a positive statistical correlation with PSM. Furthermore, the relationship between transformational leadership and PSM is negatively moderated by age. This means that the higher the age, the smaller the positive influence of transformational leadership becomes on PSM. Based on our analysis, to cultivate public service motivation within a military organization, we make policy recommendations for building and practicing an integrated form of leadership that combines the advantages of the transformational and transactional methods, and in terms of discovering and applying forms of leadership in pursuit of the public good and social responsibility as organizational goals.

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