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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> North Korea’s Missed Opportunity: The Unique, Dovish Moment of the Overlapping Trump and Moon Presidencies

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North Korea’s Missed Opportunity: The Unique, Dovish Moment of the Overlapping Trump and Moon Presidencies

Robert E. Kelly , Arius M. Derr
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권1호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2021년 03월
  • : 23-42(20pages)

DOI


목차

Introduction
A Unique Moment
The Leftist-Dovish Theory of Inter-Korean Change
Trump as an ‘Operational Dove’ on North Korea
Why Did this Unique Opportunity Fail?
The Coming Hawkish Shift
Notes
Notes on Contributors

키워드 보기


초록 보기

This paper argues that North Korea’s unwillingness to seriously negotiate during the 2018-2020 period of dovish outreach by American President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in will return the North Korea policy debate to the pre-Trump status quo of containment, deterrence, sanction, and isolation, while also opening that debate to more hawkish options. North Korea failed to grasp a historically unprecedented three-year window of two overlapping dovish presidents governing its primary geopolitical opponents. Trump and Moon both aggressively sought a major inter-Korean breakthrough; they represented a unique opportunity in the long Korean stand-off for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to press his peninsular claims. Yet Pyongyang offered no serious concessions in the 2018-2020 window, and the politico-military situation on the ground in Korea is essentially unchanged today. We argue that this failure will, at minimum, encourage the reemergence of establishmentarian, status quo policies under the new American administration of President Joseph Biden. Further, North Korea’s recalcitrance in this unique dovish period will likely push the “Overton Window” of acceptable counter-North Korea policy options rightward. Harsher measures will be considered in the wake of engagement’s failure.

UCI(KEPA)

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • :
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2021
  • : 859


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1Negotiating Nuclear Arms Control with North Korea: Why and How?

저자 : Toby Dalton , Youngjun Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 1-21 (21 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

Pressure policies to induce North Korea's unilateral denuclearization failed to achieve measurable progress toward that objective. The consolidation of nuclear and missile capabilities by North Korea points to the need for a new strategy to mitigate the potential for conflict: to pursue progress toward peace and denuclearization simultaneously. The most appropriate mechanism for implementing such a strategy is arms control, defined here as a progressive series of restrictions, limitations and constraints on arms (nuclear and conventional) and associated steps that reduce the risks of conflict and insulate relations against crises and escalation. Detractors of arms control for North Korea argue that it would convey status as a possessor of nuclear weapons, and that it would require accepting some level of mutual deterrence. States would need to consider such criticisms as they weigh the risks and costs of pursuing arms control compared to alternatives such as containment and deterrence. An arms control-oriented roadmap would integrate parallel progress on establishing a durable peace regime and capping and then reducing the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons. Monitoring and verifying compliance with this type of roadmap would require a hybrid approach drawing on both traditional safeguards-style methods and novel approaches designed to build confidence.

2North Korea's Missed Opportunity: The Unique, Dovish Moment of the Overlapping Trump and Moon Presidencies

저자 : Robert E. Kelly , Arius M. Derr

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 23-42 (20 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

This paper argues that North Korea's unwillingness to seriously negotiate during the 2018-2020 period of dovish outreach by American President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in will return the North Korea policy debate to the pre-Trump status quo of containment, deterrence, sanction, and isolation, while also opening that debate to more hawkish options. North Korea failed to grasp a historically unprecedented three-year window of two overlapping dovish presidents governing its primary geopolitical opponents. Trump and Moon both aggressively sought a major inter-Korean breakthrough; they represented a unique opportunity in the long Korean stand-off for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to press his peninsular claims. Yet Pyongyang offered no serious concessions in the 2018-2020 window, and the politico-military situation on the ground in Korea is essentially unchanged today. We argue that this failure will, at minimum, encourage the reemergence of establishmentarian, status quo policies under the new American administration of President Joseph Biden. Further, North Korea's recalcitrance in this unique dovish period will likely push the “Overton Window” of acceptable counter-North Korea policy options rightward. Harsher measures will be considered in the wake of engagement's failure.

3Aircraft Carrier Balancing in Northeast Asia and South Korean Carrier Program: Power, Threat, and Function

저자 : Kil Joo Ban

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 43-65 (23 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

Major powers in Northeast Asia are all enthusiastic about an aircraft carrier, triggering a domino effect. Under what logic have Northeast Asian states sought carrier programs? This paper explains that all of the major states in the region― China, Japan, and South Korea―attempt to acquire and strengthen carriers but their intentions and strategic goals vary from country to country. Chinese carrier capability is explained by the logic of balance of power, whereas Japanese carrier ambition is in line with the logic of balance of threat. Meanwhile, the South Korean carrier program can be explained by the balance of function. Reluctant to be over-armed and under-armed, Seoul seeks functional balancing against carrier strike capabilities of neighboring states. An aircraft carrier is equipped with unique functions, which are rarely replaced with other means. The show-of-force operations at sea are not effectively attainable without an aircraft carrier capability. With the mindset of minimalist deterrence at sea, Seoul intends to functionally match the other side's operational component by seeking a light carrier, contributing to achieving dual aims of guaranteeing national security as well as preserving maritime interests.

4The Transition of Wartime Operational Control for Entering a New Era

저자 : Kyung-young Chung

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 67-94 (28 pages)

다운로드

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초록보기

The launch of an ROK-led combined defense system and the transition of wartime operational control (OPCON) will be an epochal moment in the ROK-U.S. alliance and signal the start of a new era. The study provides a historical review of OPCON, addresses the significance of wartime OPCON transition, and examines contending views on the ROK-U.S. command structure. The article analyzes the tenets and roadmap for the OPCON from a tripartite perspective, including citizens, the government, and the military. ROK-U.S. strategic communication and a gradual transition are then discussed. The study concludes by exploring the actualization of a self-reliant national defense as a sovereign state, the commencement of an ROK- led future Combined Forces Command, and mutual relations among ROK JCS, Future CFC, UNC, and USFK, along with policy recommendations.

5Capabilities-Based “Confusion”: Why Capabilities-Based Planning Systems Struggle

저자 : Thomas-durell Young

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 95-118 (24 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

In the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld announced that the Department of Defense would henceforth use capabilitiesbased planning to guide the development of the armed forces. The popularity of the idea spread to many allied countries that also embraced the concept. However, the successful implementation of the method has been hindered by a number of factors: lack of an agreed lexicon, confusion in many defense organizations to the degree to which “threats” are used, inattention to policy priorities, heavy institutional analytical requirements, and a lack of acknowledgement of the importance money must play in any planning system. The paper concludes that whilst elements of the method are well-suited to providing objective data in support of senior leadership's decision-making; alone, it is insufficient to drive planning, which is inherently a political process.

6Analysis of Electronic Warfare Capability of the People's Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF): Its Impacts and Implications on Korean Security

저자 : Nam Tae Park , Changhyung Lee , Soyeon Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 119-140 (22 pages)

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This paper analyzes the electronic warfare capabilities of the People's Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF), established in 2015 in China. Based on the investigation, this paper aims to examine the impacts of electronic warfare capabilities of PLASSF on South Korea as well as the implications for Korean security. The core mission of the PLASSF is to perform space, cyber, electronic, and psychological warfare. Under the Network Systems Department of the PLASSF, the units for electronic warfare operates ground-based equipment, (un) manned aircraft, and electronic warfare satellites. Based on this fact, this paper argues the impacts of the PLASSF's electronic warfare capabilities are threefold: First, the PLASSF's manned electronic aircraft allows them to collect the electronic intelligence regarding the major military equipment not only of the Korean military but of the U.S. Forces in Korea. Second, it is also expected that the PLASSF would conduct electronic warfare activities very close to the Korean Peninsula by utilizing its unmanned stealth electronic aircraft. Third, the PLASSF is highly likely to gather signals intelligence from space via electronic warfare satellites. In this regard, it is necessary for the Korean military to 1) develop a more concrete concept of electronic warfare; 2) explore the ways to refuse China's electronic information collection; and 3) secure the electronic warfare countermeasure weapons system.

7Democracy and Diversionary Conflict: External Transparency and Domestic Constraints

저자 : Sung Chul Jung

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 141-163 (23 pages)

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This study examines two institutional explanations of the presence or absence of diversionary conflict. The two approaches emphasize different factors―external transparency and domestic constraints, respectively―in describing the relationship between domestic institutions and diversionary actions. Up to this point, they have not been compared theoretically and empirically in an explicit way. The present study contrasts their causal explanations and tests two competing sets of hypotheses, using cases derived from directed dyad-years from 1950 to 2000. The results show that either external transparency (strategic interaction) or internal constraints (domestic checks and balances) discourages diversionary conflict, and that mature democracies, domestically constrained and externally transparent, are least likely to initiate diversionary conflict.

8Conceptualizing and Framing Economic Security?: The Case of 30 Year Russian-Korean Security Relations Tested

저자 : Se Hyun Ahn

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 165-183 (19 pages)

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This article examines Korean-Russian relations from a new dimension of security, economic security. This is an important study of an understudied relationship in East Asia that has significant implications for the security, energy and other economic activities of the region. The objective of this article is to broaden the concept of security, conceptualize the notion of economic security and apply it to the case of bilateral relations between Moscow and Seoul. This article focuses on the securitization process of international political issues and security-building processes between two nations. Specifically, this study intends to specifically look at the following four aspects of security: nation states' perceptions of security, securitization, the security-building process, and potential security threats. In this respect, the article begins by redefining the definition of security and economic security and applying their relevance to the Russian-South Korean bilateral relations. And then the article explores specific elements of economic security, including energy, transportation linkage, and fishery cooperation since these three elements represent core elements of economic security cooperation between two countries.

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