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국방대학교 안보문제연구소> The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA)> Does the ROK-U.S. Military Alliance deter Missile Provocations from North Korea? A Plausible Answer from Statistical Approach

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Does the ROK-U.S. Military Alliance deter Missile Provocations from North Korea? A Plausible Answer from Statistical Approach

Byung-deuk Woo
  • : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소
  • : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 25권2호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2020년 12월
  • : 102-126(25pages)

DOI


목차

I. Introduction
II. Previous Literature on North Korea’s Provocation
III. Theory and Hypothesis
Ⅳ. Variables and Data
V. Modeling Strategy and Results
VI. Conclusion and Inference
References

키워드 보기


초록 보기

Missile provocations from North Korea have repeatedly threatened South Korea’s national security. Does the ROK-U.S. military alliance deter missile provocations from North Korea? Even though the previous qualitative and case studies support the crucial role of the ROK-U.S. military alliance, statistical evidence on the influence of the ROK-U.S. military alliance on the missile provocations from North Korea is absent.
This article provides empirical evidence for this relationship through Negative Binomial regressions with data about North Korea’s missile provocations from 1960 to 2016. To be specific, this article finds a strong military alliance with the U.S. decreases the number of missile provocations from North Korea. More interestingly, the deterrent impact of the military alliance on missile provocations is augmented by the close economic relationship between South Korea and the U.S. Based on a series of alternative model specifications, this article shows that the empirical results are robust and consistent. The results imply that the the ROK-U.S. military alliance cannot be enough and that the economic relationship with the U.S. should also not be marginalized.

UCI(KEPA)

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • :
  • : 반년간
  • : 1229-3601
  • :
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1996-2020
  • : 317


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1The Causes of North Korea's Coercion Strategy

저자 : Sung-yoon Chung

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 25권 2호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 5-25 (21 pages)

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초록보기

The main purpose of this article is to explain the causes of North Korea's coercion strategy. This article defines coercion as strategic efforts to alter or resolve an opponent's policies through coercive measures including the use of force. It further identifies deterrence, coercive diplomacy, and blackmail as specific types of coercive strategies. North Korea adopts coercive strategies that are excessively dependent on its nuclear weapons capabilities. This article argues that North Korea attempts coercion in order to reshape the strategic environment in a way that is conducive to its survival, and to obtain bargaining leverage over the US and South Korea. Further, there are four main reasons why North Korea continues its coercion strategy despite being significantly weaker in comparison to its opponents and facing international sanctions. North Korea's coercion strategy is caused by the strategic benefits of nuclear coercion against the US, the vulnerability and limitations of South Korea's North Korea policy, North Korea's confidence that China will not abandon them, and the high-level of control over the population and overall stability of the Kim Jong-Un regime.

2Cooperation in Outer Space: Need vs. Willingness

저자 : Su-mi Lee , Hanbeom Jeong

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 25권 2호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 26-44 (19 pages)

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This research seeks to examine how likely cooperation is to occur in the current state of outer space affairs. Using Sadeh, Lester, and Sadeh's 1996 framework, it examines how current developments in science and technology, politics, and economics create (un)favorable conditions for cooperation among states to occur. This study identifies several issues in the domain of science and technology, including space traffic and risk of collision, that call for cooperation while acknowledging the current developments in politics and economics that discourage states from cooperating with one another. The research ends with some policy implications: what would be the best course of actions for a state to take in the realm of outer space.

3Air Power and Counterinsurgency: Supplementing the Boots on the Ground

저자 : Kwang Ho Chun

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 25권 2호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 45-66 (22 pages)

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This paper considers the contemporary expansion of the role of air power in counterinsurgency. Case studies of insurgencies have been selected and analysed for exemplification of air power's growing significance. The success of air power is considered by applying air power roles within the themes of Western counterinsurgency doctrine, where at present the role of air power is underrepresented. Air power is demonstrated as showing the capability to drastically reduce the requirement for boots on the ground; however, there will always be a requirement for 'ground truth' that cannot be obtained by an aerial platform, regardless of technological superiority and development. This paper considers how air power is already, in practice, central to counterinsurgency operations but doctrinally neglected and thus not wholly utilized.

4Changes in International Relations and U.S.-China Relations in the Age of COVID-19

저자 : Dongsoo Kim

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 25권 2호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 67-82 (16 pages)

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Since COVID-19 was first discovered in Wuhan, China in December of 2019, the world has been in the middle of an unprecedented chaos. Not only has the COVID-19 pandemic brought hardships down upon individual nations, but it also has caused qualitative changes in international relations, especially in the security area. Non-traditional security as well as traditional security like national security has become very important. With the emergence of non-traditional security, global governance also has come to attention because non-traditional security issues often transgress traditional national borders and are difficult to address by the efforts of individual governments. However, the response of global governance to the COVID-19 pandemic, which is a serious threat to human security, is far from efficient and transparent. Among multiple possible explanations, this study aims to reveal that the U.S.-China competition for hegemony is one of the main reasons why the response of global governance to the COVID-19 pandemic is failing.

5Weak State's Alliance Management in the Unipolar System The ROK-US alliance after 9/11

저자 : Kun Sik Hong , So Yeon Park

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 25권 2호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 83-101 (19 pages)

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This study examines the alliance management of the weak state in the new unipolar system after September 11. The unipolar system provided a higher level of alliance autonomy to the US, but it also increased security threats, such as terrorism. In this environment, the US pursued strategic flexibility, and in turn its ally South Korea faced the security dilemma of abandonment and entrapment. In order to solve the abandonment issue, the Blue House dispatched troops to Iraq, while it adopted “balanced pragmatic diplomacy for peace and prosperity” and the “Transition of Wartime Operational Control (TWOC)” to overcome the entrapment dilemma. This article argues that this paradoxical policy of the Roh administration of South Korea toward the US is viewed as the alliance management of weak states in which both abandonment and entrapment need to be considered simultaneously. The ROK-US alliance should be tightened not only for the interests of Seoul and for Washington, but also for the stability of Northeast Asia. This article attempts to enhance the alliance management theory focusing on a weak state and suggests an alternative perspective of alliance management in the new unipolar system.

6Does the ROK-U.S. Military Alliance deter Missile Provocations from North Korea? A Plausible Answer from Statistical Approach

저자 : Byung-deuk Woo

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 25권 2호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 102-126 (25 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

Missile provocations from North Korea have repeatedly threatened South Korea's national security. Does the ROK-U.S. military alliance deter missile provocations from North Korea? Even though the previous qualitative and case studies support the crucial role of the ROK-U.S. military alliance, statistical evidence on the influence of the ROK-U.S. military alliance on the missile provocations from North Korea is absent.
This article provides empirical evidence for this relationship through Negative Binomial regressions with data about North Korea's missile provocations from 1960 to 2016. To be specific, this article finds a strong military alliance with the U.S. decreases the number of missile provocations from North Korea. More interestingly, the deterrent impact of the military alliance on missile provocations is augmented by the close economic relationship between South Korea and the U.S. Based on a series of alternative model specifications, this article shows that the empirical results are robust and consistent. The results imply that the the ROK-U.S. military alliance cannot be enough and that the economic relationship with the U.S. should also not be marginalized.

7Alliance and social division: The anti-US base movement and THAAD Deployment

저자 : Jahyun Chun

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 25권 2호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 127-145 (19 pages)

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초록보기

In 2016, the South Korean government announced plans to install a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. As a diplomatic issue, the decision depended only on the two countries involved―the US and the Republic of Korea. However, the issue remains highly contentious and faces increasing domestic and international opposition. Indeed, while China has made its disapproval known, South Korea's anti-US military base movement is growing stronger. Exploring the controversy instigated by the deployment of the THAAD system and the response of the anti-US military base movement, this study locates the debate in three social cleavages: old vs. new generations, national vs. local authority, and conservative vs. progressive political leanings. In doing so, this study reveals that the domestic controversy and social movements related to the THAAD deployment emerge from a fundamentally different rationale to that commonly associated with anti-US base movements in South Korea. As this study shows, where the anti-US military base movement once focused its criticism on US policies, the current movement has turned this attention to the South Korean government and its policies.

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