논문 상세보기

한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> Two-Level Game and Politics of the United States–North Korea Negotiation

KCI등재SSCI

Two-Level Game and Politics of the United States–North Korea Negotiation

Ihn-hwi Park
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권3호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2020년 09월
  • : 437-456(20pages)
Korean journal of defense analysis

DOI


목차

Introduction
Two-Level Game and Its linkage to the Korean Peninsula
“Win-Sets” and the United States-North Korea Negotiations
Win-Sets and Negotiations
Win-Set at the Hanoi Summit
The Domestic Conditions of the United States and North Korea
Existence of an Agreement Zone and Movement of a Win-Set
Win-Set in the Stockholm Working-Level Talks
South Korea in the Two-Level Game and Future Significance
Future Significance for U.S.-North Korea Negotiations
Conclusion
Notes
Notes on Contributor

키워드 보기


초록 보기

When the second U.S.–North Korea Summit in Hanoi, Vietnam ended abruptly without a deal, critics and experts argued that U.S. President Trump, considering the domestic pressure, changed his goals and interests at the very last minute. To theoretically explain the negotiation process in Hanoi, this study analyzes the win-set structure of the United States and North Korea. This study also aims to examine the causes of the failure by comparing the agreement zones between the United States and North Korea’s win-sets before and after the summit. Two-level game theory explains how negotiating countries with conflicting interests achieve an agreement and what kinds of strategies the governments use to maximize their own national interests. The key assumption of the two-level game theory is the linkage between domestic politics and international affairs, and the interconnection was widely suggested by many scholars including Gabriel A. Almond, James N. Rosenau, and Bruce M. Russett. Building on to this literature, Putnam’s two-level game theory introduced the concept of a “win-set” and examined the international negotiation process thoroughly using this theoretical model. Based on the analysis of the two parties’ win-sets, this study finds that the United States intentionally ended the negotiation without a deal by contracting the size of its win-set. The United States shifted its interest from the original position, which is “trading partial (or symbolic) dismantlement of North Korean nuclear weapons with partial removal of economic sanctions,” to the new interest position including the abandonment of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) referred to as “Yongbyon Plus Alpha” and the agreement on a roadmap to denuclearization.

UCI(KEPA)

I410-ECN-0102-2021-300-001025233

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • : 1941-4641
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2021
  • : 867


저작권 안내

한국학술정보㈜의 모든 학술 자료는 각 학회 및 기관과 저작권 계약을 통해 제공하고 있습니다.

이에 본 자료를 상업적 이용, 무단 배포 등 불법적으로 이용할 시에는 저작권법 및 관계법령에 따른 책임을 질 수 있습니다.

33권3호(2021년 09월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
| | | |

KCI등재 SSCI

1Five Futures for a Troubled Alliance

저자 : Jennifer Lind , Daryl G. Press

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 357-380 (24 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

Many observers have noted that relations between the United States and South Korea have become increasingly strained. In this article, to contribute to discussions about the future of the alliance we (1) describe the source of current tensions: the allies' increasingly divergent strategic priorities with respect to China, and progress in North Korea's nuclear and missile technology. Second, (2) we outline different ways to fix the problems in the alliance, by outlining alternative visions in addition to the status quo. We consider an enhanced alliance, the option of “boots off the ground,” and no alliance. None of these, we argue, addresses the key pressures on the alliance nor advances the allies' key national security interests. We conclude that the best way forward is a fifth option, which is maintaining the alliance while South Korea acquires an independent nuclear capability.

KCI등재 SSCI

2Between Pro-Market and Anti-Market: The Cold War and the Formation of South Korea's Economic System

저자 : Yong-chool Ha , Kyong Jun Choi

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 381-402 (22 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

This study investigates the effects of the Cold War's security environment on the formation of state-business relationships and the institutional development of South Korea's economic system. By examining the government's military spending policies and the purveyance of military supplies to its army during the Cold War, this study shows how excessive defense spending and the government's military procurement policy affected the formation of an intermingled economic system in South Korea. An analysis of the interactions between the military and civilian economic actors in South Korea during the Cold War reveals the impact of overriding security concerns, high military spending, and no-bid contracts for military procurement on the country's state-business relationships and economic structures, which were characterized by a mixture of anti-market and pro-market systems.

KCI등재 SSCI

3The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force in Space Warfare: With Available but Incomplete Capabilities

저자 : Yuan-chou Jing

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 403-427 (25 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

Based on the military struggle readiness of Winning Informationized Local Wars, the PLA has underscored the need for dominance in space, looking for a privileged and commanding status in the context of space warfare. To further dictate the whole war, the PLA is currently devoted to the development of anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) to substantiate its Space Control Capability. The correlation between the PLARF and anti-satellite operations can be seen from two aspects. First, transformation of the military strategy towards the ideal of having both nuclear and conventional capabilities and deterring wars in all battlespaces in the wake of the recent military overhaul of the PLA markedly revealed Beijing's unwavering intent to force its influence into space. Second, empirical data of the PLARF's “reconnaissance, control and strike” joint construct and operational equipment showed that the PLARF has entered the developmental stage capable of undertaking successful anti-satellite operations. This study concludes that the PLARF is in charge of anti-satellite operations and then conduct this mission with the vertical commanding architecture from the Central Military Commission, Theatres, down to the PLARF units. This study also argues that for now and the foreseeable future, the PLA will focus all its efforts to integrate information links of the combat systems and extend the range of conventional ballistic missiles.

KCI등재 SSCI

4Emerging China's Challenge to the United States in the Gulf and Implications for South Korea

저자 : Kangsuk Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 429-452 (24 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

As the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies, South Korea has faced unprecedented pressure from both countries, and how it should respond has become a key issue. This study explores China's emergence as a challenger to U.S. dominance in the Gulf region and its implications for South Korea. Since the establishment of the Carter Doctrine in 1980, the United States has recognized the strategic importance of the Gulf and assumed the role of guardian to the entire region. However, President Obama's “Pivot to Asia” and Trump's retrenchment from costly foreign commitments marked a substantial shift in U.S. foreign policy. Consequently, this paper will assess the growing cooperation between China and the Gulf states in the midst of a perceived withdrawal of the United States from the region. It also attempts to reveal China's strategies that have the potential to challenge U.S. hegemony and growing U.S. vigilance against China's assertiveness in the region. By examining these questions, it is able to suggest implications for the South Korean government.

KCI등재 SSCI

5Issues and Prospects of AI Utilization in the Defense Field: Organizational Capability, Technology Maturity, Institutional Congruence

저자 : Junghyun Yoon

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 453-479 (27 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

Modern warfare is rapidly shifting to automation and networking of battlefields. Artificial intelligence technology is seen as a technological breakthrough for military innovation. However, in Korea, a number of constraints impede the practical use of artificial intelligence technology by the military, despite announced government plans. This study reports a survey about such various constraints, in terms of organizational capacity, technology maturity, and institutional congruence. The evaluation factors for each arm of service were designed to address issues specific to the national defense sector, and the results of the evaluation were analyzed through a survey of a group of experts, including military policy officers, representatives of the defense industry, and researchers. The results of the investigation showed that AI technology in the field of defense has not yet been established to the extent that it could replace a commander's decision-making. In order to improve these limitations, security issues related to data utilization, training of professional AI personnel, and measures to revitalize public-private cooperation should be solved first.

KCI등재 SSCI

6The Future of the Korean Military Service System: Direction and Challenge for New Korean Military Service System Innovation

저자 : Byung-ook Choi

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 481-505 (25 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

The discussion on the Korean military service system is the most controversial topic ahead of the Presidential election of March 2022 in the Republic of Korea. The change of the military service system has been discussed continuously in diverse backgrounds and contexts as it has a profound influence on the military and national society. The academic discussions on improving the military service system are generally divided into two options: transitioning to the All-Volunteer Military Service (AVMS) and maintaining the conscription service. However, discussions on the military service system are largely stagnant at the ideological and economic levels rather than rational ones. This study seeks ways to improve the ROK military service system facing the demographic cliff phenomenon beyond dichotomous thinking of the conscription service and the AVMS. The future military service system should lead the military structure innovation toward a technology-intensive army through reorganizing the military structure and reshaping the defense manpower system. Furthermore, the new Korean military system needs a change and innovation to secure national growth power in the low-birth and hyper-aging demographic cliff era. It is urgent to design and prepare a new Korean military service system based on the conscription system but expands the characteristics of the voluntary system.

KCI등재 SSCI

7Utilization and Construction of Taiwan's Air Force against Chinese Military Threats

저자 : Kwan Haeng Cho , Chan Min Hong , Myung Jin Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 507-532 (26 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

The relationship between China and Taiwan today is at the level of its greatest intensity since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. Chinese military actions against Taiwan are considered to be the greatest threats from the Taiwanese perspective. As Taiwan sees its air force as a key component of its overall military power, a study on ways Taiwan constructs its airpower based on strategic concepts seems extremely timely, serving as a potential reference point for various future conflict scenarios. Against this backdrop, this paper poses two research questions: 1) what are Taiwan's military strategy and relevant strategic concepts against Chinese military threats? 2) what are the concepts and directions behind utilizing and constructing its airpower to achieve its strategic concepts? This paper finds that Taiwan is currently constructing its airpower to achieve its military objectives with a defensive strategic concept. Understanding and examining Taiwan's security environment and military strategy with strategic concepts put forth by the Taiwanese Air Force could serve as a valuable resource for countries with similar military assets and security environments.

KCI등재 SSCI

8Leadership and Public Service Motivation in the Military Organization: The Moderating Effect of Age

저자 : Young-gon Kim , David Shin

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 3호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 533-555 (23 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

Drawing on survey data from 1,746 enlistees in the Republic of Korea military, this paper examines the moderating effect of age on the impact that the leadership of superiors have on their subordinates' public service motivation (PSM). Our analysis shows that transformational leadership and transactional leadership both have a positive statistical correlation with PSM. Furthermore, the relationship between transformational leadership and PSM is negatively moderated by age. This means that the higher the age, the smaller the positive influence of transformational leadership becomes on PSM. Based on our analysis, to cultivate public service motivation within a military organization, we make policy recommendations for building and practicing an integrated form of leadership that combines the advantages of the transformational and transactional methods, and in terms of discovering and applying forms of leadership in pursuit of the public good and social responsibility as organizational goals.

1
권호별 보기
같은 권호 다른 논문
| | | | 다운로드

KCI등재SSCI

1Trump Administration's Korean Nuclear Crisis Management and Prospects for Solution

저자 : Huizhi Zhang , Xiaotong Zhang

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 331-349 (19 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

The Korean nuclear crisis in 2017 was essentially a brinkmanship policy crisis deliberately created by the Trump administration. That is to say, the Trump administration forced the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to choose between war and concession by imposing “maximum pressure,” so as to promote the process of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. However, due to the DPRK's hedging strategy, U.S. domestic political constraints, and lack of international cooperation, the negotiation between the United States and the DPRK reached a stalemate. There even had been a debate in the United States over whether or not the government would acquiesce to the DPRK being a nuclear state. If any real progress is to be achieved, the Trump administration must set limited goals under a practical scheme. And at the same time, the UN Security Council should formulate reversible provisions to restrain the United States and the DPRK from failing to keep their promises. It should also reduce the negative impact of the lack of mutual trust between the two countries with a guarantee of the international community, thereby accelerating the peace process of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

KCI등재SSCI

2From Confrontation to Conflict between China and Taiwan: Major Challenges for Taiwan's Counter Strategy

저자 : Sukjoon Yoon , Junho Yun

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 351-370 (20 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

This article explores the issue of Taiwan's security, increasingly threatened by China's overwhelming military power. Taiwan has long been protected by a security commitment from the United States, but recent geopolitical shifts and technological developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of Taiwan's strategy. Operational concepts and tactics, such as Taiwan's A2/AD defense against the PLA are severely challenged by China's enhanced amphibious capabilities. Taiwan now looks vulnerable to a full-scale amphibious assault by the PLA, and the U.S. commitment has been undermined by the transactional emphasis of the current administration, with Taiwan seen primarily as a tool to contain Chinese expansionism rather than an end in and of itself. Clearly, the Taiwanese military needs to up its game, and this article makes four recommendations: First, Taiwan should significantly increase its independent military capabilities, forcing Chinese military planners to reconsider whether the military options against Taiwan are worthwhile. Second, Taiwan should deploy its substantial technological prowess to strengthen its cyber warfare defenses. Third, Taiwan should rapidly acquire advanced foreign-made weapons and systems, abandoning its costly and timeconsuming indigenous development policies. Fourth, Taiwan's leaders should give serious consideration to developing nuclear weapons, as only this can deter the Chinese military threat in the long term.

KCI등재SSCI

3The Impact of the Reinforced Sanctions on the North Korean Economy: Focused on the Ripple Effects from Trade Shock

저자 : Ji Young Choi

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 371-391 (21 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

This study attempts to examine how reinforced sanctions affected the North Korean economy focusing on the interdependence of industries. North Korea's trade with China, accounting for more than 90 percent of its total trade, sharply dropped right after the UNSC intensified sanctions. Trade shock affects the domestic economy through a decrease in demand and supply, caused by the reduction of exports and imports, respectively. We estimate the ripple effect from trade shock after the recent sanctions using input-output analysis. According to the estimation results, export shock caused a decrease in value-added by 1.4-1.5 billion USD, which accounts for 8.5-9.0 percent of the North Korean GDP. In addition, import shock was concentrated on the capital goods of final goods, while it rarely affected intermediate imports. For the reinforced sanctions, the dependency of intermediate imports showed an increase in some industries such as agriculture, forestry and fishery and light industry. These results indicate that the economic impact from the recent sanctions could be different from that of the collapse of the former socialist bloc in the early 1990s. In terms of export shock, the sanctions' negative effect is estimated to be higher. However, the negative effect from import shock is lower than that of the early 1990s, since it is far from reducing the intermediate inputs to the overall industry.

KCI등재SSCI

4Analysis of the Positions Held by Countries on Legal Issues of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems and Proper Domestic Policy Direction of South Korea

저자 : Sehoon Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 393-418 (26 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) are being developed by major countries as a core value of future war. The international community is actively discussing the legal issues and regulatory methods of LAWS at the Group of Government Experts (GGE) meetings hosted by the Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW). The main purpose of the first part of this paper is to compare and analyze countries' positions on each issue at the above GGE. At the GGE, there are contrasting stances between those supporting and opposing strict regulations on LAWS. A consensus was not reached on the definition of LAWS and the necessity to create a new treaty that regulates LAWS. However, most countries and NGOs are trying to find a methodology for autonomous weapons to comply with international humanitarian law through “human elements.” It is difficult to expect the creation of a new treaty, so the recent GGE has emphasized the solution through Article 36 of Additional Protocol I. Based on the discussions at the GGE, the second part of this paper will examine the proper policy direction that South Korea can set for LAWS. The issues and trends discussed in the GGE need to be fully understood by government policy makers and defense industry experts. In addition, in order to clarify the implementation of Article 36, it is possible to use a method to prepare regulations in domestic laws or codes of conduct to test compliance with international laws on new weapons including LAWS. As to whether or not to create the new treaty, diplomatic channels can carefully consider options for participating in Europeanled political declarations. Finally, an accurate understanding of the U.S. position on LAWS regulations is needed, and government-led research and development can play an important role in promoting international solidarity among allies.

KCI등재SSCI

5South Korea's Policy towards China's “Belt and Road Initiative”: Implications for India

저자 : Ranjit Kumar Dhawan

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 419-435 (17 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

China's “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) is being projected as one of the biggest infrastructure and connectivity projects of the 21st century. This Chinese mega project has evoked varied responses from the Asian nations. South Korea (hereafter Korea) which is the fourth biggest economy in Asia and an important trade partner of India has been supportive of the BRI, as this strategy is compatible with Seoul's own vision of increased connectivity with the Eurasian market, capital, labor and resources, and is conducive to the promotion of Korean national reunification. On the other hand, India has been opposed to the BRI as it overlooks New Delhi's sovereignty concerns and serves China's geopolitical interests. Also, India has been supporting the “Indo-Pacific strategy” along with the United States, Japan and Australia to counter China's rising hegemony in the region. As a result, Korea and India have different views on the BRI. This article aims to conduct an analysis of Korea's policy towards China's BRI which could have detrimental implications for India and argues that there is a need to take some serious measures to improve Korea-India relations in the coming times.

KCI등재SSCI

6Two-Level Game and Politics of the United States–North Korea Negotiation

저자 : Ihn-hwi Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 437-456 (20 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

When the second U.S.–North Korea Summit in Hanoi, Vietnam ended abruptly without a deal, critics and experts argued that U.S. President Trump, considering the domestic pressure, changed his goals and interests at the very last minute. To theoretically explain the negotiation process in Hanoi, this study analyzes the win-set structure of the United States and North Korea. This study also aims to examine the causes of the failure by comparing the agreement zones between the United States and North Korea's win-sets before and after the summit. Two-level game theory explains how negotiating countries with conflicting interests achieve an agreement and what kinds of strategies the governments use to maximize their own national interests. The key assumption of the two-level game theory is the linkage between domestic politics and international affairs, and the interconnection was widely suggested by many scholars including Gabriel A. Almond, James N. Rosenau, and Bruce M. Russett. Building on to this literature, Putnam's two-level game theory introduced the concept of a “win-set” and examined the international negotiation process thoroughly using this theoretical model. Based on the analysis of the two parties' win-sets, this study finds that the United States intentionally ended the negotiation without a deal by contracting the size of its win-set. The United States shifted its interest from the original position, which is “trading partial (or symbolic) dismantlement of North Korean nuclear weapons with partial removal of economic sanctions,” to the new interest position including the abandonment of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) referred to as “Yongbyon Plus Alpha” and the agreement on a roadmap to denuclearization.

KCI등재SSCI

7Framing Cyber Security in Taiwan: A Perspective of Discursive Knowledge Production

저자 : Hon-min Yau

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 457-474 (18 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

In 2019, the Tsai Ing-wen administration in Taiwan successfully amended the National Security Act as a protective measure against threats in cyberspace. However, Taiwan has perceived itself under China's cyber-attacks since 1999, yet it is only the Tsai administration that was able to mobilize substantial resources to counter this threat. To understand what has been different in her endeavor, this paper investigated this historical development in the discourse of Taiwan's cyber security via the analytical framework of securitization. It argues that the improvement of Taiwan's cyber posture under Tsai is not due to the previous administrations' ignorance of cyber threats but is due to the unique context that enables discursive practices of knowledge production during the Tsai administration to deliver a more convincing claim. The investigation further provides cautious notes on the potential adverse effect of this securitization.

KCI등재SSCI

8Why Nuclear Non-proliferation Disputes Cannot Be Settled through Judicial or Adjudication Arrangements

저자 : Wenfu Mou

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 475-494 (20 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

Whilst the NPT regime constituted from several international treaties provides judicial and adjudicatory arrangements for nuclear dispute settlement such as ad hoc arbitration and litigation before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), in the Comprehensive Safeguard Agreement (CSA) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Statute respectively, such arrangements, in contemporary practice, have remained silent towards nuclear proliferation problems, and the Security Council has dominated the proliferation issues in its own capacity. This phenomenon may be explained by the fact that there is some obstacle in the dispute settlement clause itself: the arbitral clause in the CSA precludes the essential proliferation disputes as being able to be arbitrated, and the dispute settlement clause in the IAEA Statute covers no disputes possibly arising out of the CSA. Even if a better judicial procedure is to be developed, it is hard for them to function effectively because in the event of non-compliance with international adjudications, their enforcement needs support from external authority. On the other hand, the key to the settlement of nuclear proliferation disputes is the continued duty of performance, fulfillment of international obligations ever violated, to a large extent, implementation of international law, which also need legitimate coercive authority. These two elements may justify contemporary international practices in the settlement of proliferation disputes.

1
발행기관 최신논문
자료제공: 네이버학술정보
발행기관 최신논문
자료제공: 네이버학술정보

내가 찾은 최근 검색어

최근 열람 자료

맞춤 논문

보관함

내 보관함
공유한 보관함

1:1문의

닫기