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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> Before “Fire and Fury”: The Role of Anger and Fear in U.S.-North Korea Relations, 1968-1994

KCI등재SSCI

Before “Fire and Fury”: The Role of Anger and Fear in U.S.-North Korea Relations, 1968-1994

Benjamin R. Young
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권2호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2020년 06월
  • : 207-229(23pages)
Korean journal of defense analysis

DOI


목차

Introduction
1968 Pueblo Crisis
1976 Axe Murder Incident
1994 Nuclear Crisis
Conclusion
Notes

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초록 보기

Since the beginning of the Korean War, the North Korean and U.S. governments have been involved in emotional warfare. From North Korea’s stated “eternal hatred” of the U.S. imperialists to Washington’s demonization of Pyongyang as an insidious Soviet pawn, emotions have been at the heart of this hostile bilateral relationship. Using three case studies (the 1968 Pueblo incident, the 1976 axe murder incident, and the 1994 nuclear crisis), I examine the ways in which the two sides have elicited emotional responses from their populations for their respective political goals. By portraying the U.S. as the source of all evilness in its state-run media, the North Korean regime halted internal criticisms and consolidated their political power. Meanwhile, the U.S. media saw North Korea’s aggression as a symbol of Communist treachery and Soviet imperialism.

UCI(KEPA)

I410-ECN-0102-2021-300-000844094

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • : 1941-4641
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2021
  • : 875


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1Regional Security Order Transition and the ROK's Order Management: Critique and Suggestions

저자 : Ki-hyun Bae

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 557-577 (21 pages)

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The Republic of Korea (ROK) is one of the non-major powers most closely interested in the nature of the hierarchical security order in East Asia and its transition, but little academic attention has been drawn to examining its diplomatic positions or policy directions as it responds to and shapes the regional security order. Drawing on realist insights into order transition and their implications for security relations between major and non-major powers, this paper examines the nature of the security order in East Asia and critically discusses how the ROK's approach to order management has been of only limited success in addressing the structural risks growing out of the changing natures of the regional order. It also discusses the collective order management of its Southeast Asian neighbors as a comparable case that tackles similar risks differently. The paper concludes with a discussion of how a stronger partnership with Southeast Asia could complement the limitations of the ROK's approach to regional security order management, particularly in this time of a rapid transition to a bipolar East Asia.

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2Do Election Cycles Matter for Foreign Policy? A Case Study of U.S. Normalizing Relations with Former Adversaries

저자 : Jungkun Seo

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 579-596 (18 pages)

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The interaction between domestic politics and foreign policy has recently grasped a great deal of scholarly as well as public attention. The existing literature primarily focuses on a host of domestic actors―the president, the legislature, the media, public opinion, interest groups and political parties―and how they connect with the making of foreign policy. This paper introduces a new angle―the impact of electoral cycles on foreign policy. When politicians mull over dramatic foreign policy breakthroughs, they consider how the timing of policy achievements can help their political standing. Of particular importance to the effect of political timing is the election cycle, which presidents and lawmakers strategically consider and yet, cannot arbitrarily change in representative democracies. In this paper, I give special attention to the post-midterm election period in the United States when the sitting president attempts to make a dramatic comeback from a political setback. The three historical case studies involve the U.S. normalization of relations with former adversaries, namely China, Vietnam, and Cuba. The context of American politics provides for a convenient experimental backdrop by which politicians face elections every other year with presidential contests every four years and congressional elections in between. Dealing with such politics of time, this article offers analytical analogies while not necessarily setting out to prove causal mechanisms. This firstcut research attempts to shed a new light on the way election strategy and foreign policy are linked in representative democracies and global communities.

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3President Bush's Foreign Policy Decision Making after the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks

저자 : Alex Soohoon Lee

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 597-615 (19 pages)

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In the United States, the President is the principal actor in foreign policy making. This was certainly the case after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the deadliest attack on U.S. soil. In the field of international relations, however, most of the research regarding U.S. foreign policy after the 9/11 terrorist attacks have focused on evaluating or criticizing the war on terror, while the national security decisions that led to the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq have been under-researched. Previous research has left much to be desired; this research aims to unearth what empowered President Bush to make such foreign policy decisions. To do so, an analytical framework that combines cognitive and structural approaches1 has been constructed. Analyzing cognitive aspects and the factors concerning the international security environment after the 9/11 terrorist attacks adequately explains the foreign policy decisions made in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. In this light, the research reaffirms the dominance of the President in U.S. foreign policy making.

KCI등재 SSCI

4North Korea's Nuclear Command and Control Estimate: Variables and Trends

저자 : Ildo Hwang

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 617-638 (22 pages)

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For the purpose of estimating North Korea's nuclear command and control, this study first reclassified the key variables of the previous studies into two axes: external security factors and domestic political factors. Next, it traced Pyongyang's changes in these variables after Kim Jong Un came to power, especially from the point of accelerated nuclear and missile development in 2016. Those findings led to the confirmation that the North is under elevated pressure towards the delegative model, given the security situation and the necessity for doctrine and posture upgrade. In the realm of internal political factors, it can be said that the party's control over the military has been strengthened compared to the Kim Jong Il period, and there were few specific signs that Chairman Kim and policy-making groups are more concerned about military coups or disobedience than before. Comparing this with Pakistan that has institutionalized the pre-delegation of authority to use tactical nuclear weapons, etc., the pressure imposed on North Korea toward the delegative model must be relatively greater and the pressure toward the assertive model may be smaller.
In order to verify the above theoretical discussions, this research traced the North's mention of nuclear capabilities and the composition and content of institutional devices and military exercises after Kim Jong Un came to power. This draws the conclusion that Pyongyang has been making significant efforts in recent years to respond to the changes in the major external variables discussed earlier. In particular, the North has been grappling with the time-urgency issue and repeatedly emphasized the clear distinction between tactical and strategic weapons, which can signal that Pyongyang will separate the delegative and assertive command and control models according to the type of nuclear capabilities in the near future.

KCI등재 SSCI

5China-U.S. Maritime Competition: Destined for Strategic Miscalculations?

저자 : Ahmed Bux Jamali , Hongsong Liu

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 639-663 (25 pages)

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The paper evaluates the key factors that have predominantly increased the maritime competition between the United States and China. The authors argue that, due to the diverging naval interests in the South and the East China Seas and the growing competition to acquire maritime security technology, the momentum of maritime rivalry has immensely escalated between the two states. Based on strategic maneuverability in maritime security, this paper evaluates the rising strategic ambiguity posed by China's anti-access area-denial (A2/AD) system vis-à-vis the United States. It further illustrates U.S. All Domain Operation (ADO) and China's rapid emergence as a maritime competitor in Asia. The evaluation demonstrates the repercussions of miscalculations and highlights that the perceived mutual rivalry has come to the point that both sides are muddling through the dynamics of misperception and security-dilemma scenario which has increased the likelihood of strategic miscalculations.

KCI등재 SSCI

6Iran and Afghanistan between China and India: Great Power Competition for Regional Connectivity in South and Central Asia

저자 : Younkyoo Kim , Stephen Blank

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 665-687 (23 pages)

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The recent Sino-Iranian agreement of March 2021 has been seen mainly in terms of its impact upon Irano-American and Irano-Chinese relations and the Middle East. This article, instead explores how this agreement affects the Indo-Chinese rivalry now occurring in South and Central Asia. It examines in great detail India's efforts to augment its position in Central Asia and how it has assigned Iran a prominent place in this campaign. Yet it failed to make the most of its chances, leaving the door open to China to step in and by this agreement undermine India's (and Russia's position) in South and Central Asia. The article focuses on trade and transportation issues as expressed in contending inter-continental trade and transport projects (the BRI and INSTC). But it concludes with an examination of the tie-in between the Sino-Iranian agreements and their overall implications of military and security issues throughout the Indian Ocean region and Central Asia. Thus, it ties together economic, trade, transportation, and security issues throughout South and Central Asia as well as the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

KCI등재 SSCI

7Reframing South Korea's National Cybersecurity Governance System in Critical Information Infrastructure

저자 : Do-kyung Kim , Soon-yang Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 689-713 (25 pages)

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The purpose of this article is to analyze the contemporary situation and underlying problems of South Korea's national cybersecurity system in the area of critical information infrastructure, then suggest relevant policy measures to tackle possible cyber-attacks upon critical information infrastructure. To this end, this article established the analytical framework consisting of the five-dimensional components of the governance system. This article analyzed the contemporary situation and underlying problems of Korea's national cybersecurity governance system in critical information infrastructure, according to the five dimensions of governance system: legal and institutional systems, administrative system, finance and budget systems, monitoring and evaluation systems, and public-private partnerships. This article exposed several underlying problems behind the contemporary national cybersecurity governance system of Korea across each dimension of governance, in order to suggest policy measures to tackle cyber-attacks in critical information infrastructure.

KCI등재 SSCI

8Why China Has Supported North Korea: An Asymmetrical Dependent Relationship between China and North Korea from 1995 to 2016

저자 : Yongjae Lee

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 4호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 715-733 (19 pages)

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North Korea has been China's socialist ally since the Korean War. Although North Korea's provocations like nuclear tests have damaged Chinese national interests, China has supported North Korea. This research project examines why China has supported North Korea by analyzing event data from the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS). After China became integrated in the global economy, it has regarded stability and peace much more than the strategic factors of North Korea and has not viewed North Korea as a balanced ally to help China maintain the balance of power since the 1990s. This work also attempts to examine whether or not a strategic reason still plays a role in China's approach toward North Korea. The empirical results demonstrate that when North Korea faced physical and nonphysical threats from the United States and its allies (South Korea and Japan) in Northeast Asia, China showed amicable behavior toward North Korea in order to save its buffer zone. However, China did not approach North Korea when it faced strategic disadvantages.

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1Security Hedging Strategies of U.S. Allies and Partners in the Era of Trump: The ROK, Japan and Singapore as Case Studies

저자 : Er-win Tan , Jae-jeok Park , Tomohiko Satake

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 2호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 163-184 (22 pages)

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Increasing acrimony in U.S.-China relations poses a challenge for states in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly those that have, whilst benefiting from the U.S. role in underwriting regional security, wish to avoid straining relations with China. In dealing with this challenge, the ROK, Japan and Singapore have blended “minilateralism” alongside hedging strategies. Japan's approach has combined maintenance of its security ties to the United States, whilst simultaneously increasing security cooperation with other powers in the region. The ROK has positioned itself strategically within the U.S. alliance network in the Asia-Pacific, whilst distancing itself from full security cooperation with Japan, in order to reassure China. Singapore faces additional difficulty due to its small size, and has focused on mobilizing its “convening” power to highlight its own relevance to the interests of the international community, whilst simultaneously increasing security cooperation with the UK and Australia as alternative partners.

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2Uncertainty, Cooperation and U.S.-China Relations:A Survey Experiment on Conflictual Possibilities between Great Powers

저자 : Lin Liu , Yi Yang

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China's rise and its consequences for U.S.-China relations and international stability has generated great scholarly interest. However, current research fails to explain why dominant powers such as the United States sometimes cooperates with rising threats like China. Edelstein notes that realists often conflate two types of uncertainty: risk, which one can assess using probabilistic estimates; and uncertainty, which suggests that, in complex world systems, outcomes are truly unknowable. We thus ask: do risk and uncertainty scenarios affect states' strategic choices differently? Unlike offensive realists who argue uncertainty always increases conflictual possibilities because states fear the intentions of others, Edelstein following a defensive realist argument suggests that uncertainty rather than risk will enhance cooperation chances because when great powers are truly uncertain about rising powers' intentions, they become less aggressive, preferring to wait and see. This paper adopts a survey experiment in China to evaluate how risk and uncertainty can encourage or reduce competitive state behaviors. Contradicting Edelstein, our experiment shows that uncertainty generates less chances for cooperation between dominant and rising powers than risk. In this vein, this paper serves as an empirical support to the offensive realist argument that portrays great power relations as invariably competitive affairs.

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3Before “Fire and Fury”: The Role of Anger and Fear in U.S.-North Korea Relations, 1968-1994

저자 : Benjamin R. Young

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 2호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 207-229 (23 pages)

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Since the beginning of the Korean War, the North Korean and U.S. governments have been involved in emotional warfare. From North Korea's stated “eternal hatred” of the U.S. imperialists to Washington's demonization of Pyongyang as an insidious Soviet pawn, emotions have been at the heart of this hostile bilateral relationship. Using three case studies (the 1968 Pueblo incident, the 1976 axe murder incident, and the 1994 nuclear crisis), I examine the ways in which the two sides have elicited emotional responses from their populations for their respective political goals. By portraying the U.S. as the source of all evilness in its state-run media, the North Korean regime halted internal criticisms and consolidated their political power. Meanwhile, the U.S. media saw North Korea's aggression as a symbol of Communist treachery and Soviet imperialism.

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4Strategic Implications of a Nuclear North Korea: Europe's Dual Role in Diplomacy and Deterrence

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KCI등재SSCI

5Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space and Developing Countries

저자 : Miqdad Mehdi , Jinyuan Su

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 2호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 253-270 (18 pages)

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The existing international legal framework for outer space is inadequate for the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS). There has not been any other legally-binding treaty on outer space since the signing of the Moon Agreement (MA) in 1979. The development of adequate international law for PAROS is in urgent need. Some spacefaring countries are promoting a treaty on PAROS. For instance, China and Russia have proposed a draft treaty on the Prevention of Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects (PPWT), which has encountered criticisms from some other space powers. This paper briefly reviews the influence, rights, and concerns of developing countries on PAROS. Developing countries have participated and made their concerns known in various inter-governmental fora, such as the General Assembly (GA) and the Conference on Disarmament (CD). It discusses the role of developing countries in the making of treaties and resolutions on outer space. It concludes by summing up the efforts of developing countries for disarmament and explores the challenges that the international community is facing to conclude an international agreement on PAROS. The paper also makes several suggestions for promoting the peaceful exploration and use of outer space.

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6How to Resolve the North Korean Nuclear Issue: From a Commitment Problem Perspective

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From a rationalist perspective, this paper analyzes the current nuclear stalemate between the United States and North Korea. Using a simple game theoretical model, this paper shows that the current deadlock emanates from a commitment problem, Pyongyang's concern that the United States will be unable to commit itself to following through on an agreement once Pyongyang has dismantled its nuclear programs, because Pyongyang's accommodation of the demand for denuclearization would imply not only the increased vulnerability of the North to U.S. military presence but also the undermining of its future bargaining power relative to that of the United States. Currently, the lack of a reliable enforcing mechanism to guarantee the implementation of a nuclear deal generates this commitment problem, making it more difficult for both sides to strike a deal. Thus, this paper offers three policy alternatives to minimize the commitment problem as a prerequisite to resolving the North Korean nuclear problem and making progress towards denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. First, minimizing the commitment problem requires bringing in a third party who is capable of securing the implementation of an agreement. Besides bringing in a third party, this paper also proposes two other ways to make reneging costly. The final agreement for a nuclear deal must be a legally binding agreement such as a treaty that requires U.S. domestic legislative approval and finally, North Korea must relinquish any economic aid from the United States to reduce the possibility that a nuclear deal made between them does not cause any U.S. domestic backlash against the deal.

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This article seeks to explain the root cause of North Korea's behavior associated with its recent initiatives of diplomatic engagement. Contrary to the popular account in the United States that the Trump administration's policy of maximum pressure has brought North Korea to the negotiating table, this article argues that Kim Jong Un's desire to consolidate his regime's legitimacy through economic development after completing his preeminent goal of becoming a nuclear power is a driving force in Pyongyang's sudden turn to diplomacy in 2018. Based on the analysis of the North Korean economy under the Kim Jong Un regime as well as Kim's public statements, it points out the flaws of the popular account and reveals that this article's main claim is empirically supported and thus is more compelling.

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8A Vanguard of Foreign Policy over Maritime Claims: Naval Power rather than National Power

저자 : Jonghwan Han

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Most quantitative studies about maritime claims use national power measured by gross indicators, such as the CINC score, to explain disputants' foreign policy leverage over maritime claims. The basic assumption in using national power to analyze issues over maritime claims is that wealthier, more developed, more populous countries can transfer abundant resources into military potentials, which enables them to have stronger foreign policy leverage over maritime claims. This research does not attempt to deny this assumption. This study, however, argues that based on the inherent advantages of naval power to project power over the sea, naval power measured by the total tonnage of warships is theoretically better and empirically different from national power, and the usage of naval power enhances understanding about disputants' foreign policy behaviors over maritime claims. Therefore, I conclude that naval power rather than national power is a better and more tailored indicator to explain issues, especially the occurrence of militarized disputes over maritime claims.

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