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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> Uncertainty, Cooperation and U.S.-China Relations:A Survey Experiment on Conflictual Possibilities between Great Powers

KCI등재SSCI

Uncertainty, Cooperation and U.S.-China Relations:A Survey Experiment on Conflictual Possibilities between Great Powers

Lin Liu , Yi Yang
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권2호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2020년 06월
  • : 185-206(22pages)
Korean journal of defense analysis

DOI


목차

Introduction
The Rise of China and Uncertainty in World Politics
Research Design and Data Collection
Results and Implications
Conclusion
Notes

키워드 보기


초록 보기

China’s rise and its consequences for U.S.-China relations and international stability has generated great scholarly interest. However, current research fails to explain why dominant powers such as the United States sometimes cooperates with rising threats like China. Edelstein notes that realists often conflate two types of uncertainty: risk, which one can assess using probabilistic estimates; and uncertainty, which suggests that, in complex world systems, outcomes are truly unknowable. We thus ask: do risk and uncertainty scenarios affect states’ strategic choices differently? Unlike offensive realists who argue uncertainty always increases conflictual possibilities because states fear the intentions of others, Edelstein following a defensive realist argument suggests that uncertainty rather than risk will enhance cooperation chances because when great powers are truly uncertain about rising powers’ intentions, they become less aggressive, preferring to wait and see. This paper adopts a survey experiment in China to evaluate how risk and uncertainty can encourage or reduce competitive state behaviors. Contradicting Edelstein, our experiment shows that uncertainty generates less chances for cooperation between dominant and rising powers than risk. In this vein, this paper serves as an empirical support to the offensive realist argument that portrays great power relations as invariably competitive affairs.

UCI(KEPA)

I410-ECN-0102-2021-300-000844089

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • : 1941-4641
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2021
  • : 867


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As the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies, South Korea has faced unprecedented pressure from both countries, and how it should respond has become a key issue. This study explores China's emergence as a challenger to U.S. dominance in the Gulf region and its implications for South Korea. Since the establishment of the Carter Doctrine in 1980, the United States has recognized the strategic importance of the Gulf and assumed the role of guardian to the entire region. However, President Obama's “Pivot to Asia” and Trump's retrenchment from costly foreign commitments marked a substantial shift in U.S. foreign policy. Consequently, this paper will assess the growing cooperation between China and the Gulf states in the midst of a perceived withdrawal of the United States from the region. It also attempts to reveal China's strategies that have the potential to challenge U.S. hegemony and growing U.S. vigilance against China's assertiveness in the region. By examining these questions, it is able to suggest implications for the South Korean government.

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Modern warfare is rapidly shifting to automation and networking of battlefields. Artificial intelligence technology is seen as a technological breakthrough for military innovation. However, in Korea, a number of constraints impede the practical use of artificial intelligence technology by the military, despite announced government plans. This study reports a survey about such various constraints, in terms of organizational capacity, technology maturity, and institutional congruence. The evaluation factors for each arm of service were designed to address issues specific to the national defense sector, and the results of the evaluation were analyzed through a survey of a group of experts, including military policy officers, representatives of the defense industry, and researchers. The results of the investigation showed that AI technology in the field of defense has not yet been established to the extent that it could replace a commander's decision-making. In order to improve these limitations, security issues related to data utilization, training of professional AI personnel, and measures to revitalize public-private cooperation should be solved first.

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1Security Hedging Strategies of U.S. Allies and Partners in the Era of Trump: The ROK, Japan and Singapore as Case Studies

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