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국방대학교 안보문제연구소> The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA)> Russia's Policy on North Korean Nuclear Issue: Before and After, Imposing Sanctions against North Korea

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Russia's Policy on North Korean Nuclear Issue: Before and After, Imposing Sanctions against North Korea

Pyung Kyun Woo
  • : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소
  • : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 23권1호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2018년 06월
  • : 63-79(17pages)
The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA)

DOI


목차

Introduction
Russia's Policy toward North Korea before the Imposition of Sanctions
Russia's Policy on Sanctions against North Korea after 2016
Prospects for the Future: Bilateral Relations between Russia and North Korea
Conclusion: Some Recommendations for South Korea
References

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초록 보기

This paper suggests that Russia’s will and capabilities for intervening in the North Korean nuclear issue can be a constant variable in Korean affairs. To defend this statement, this paper begins by briefly reviewing Russia’s policy toward North Korea until the imposing of sanctions by the United Nations in 2016. It goes on to analyze Russia’s policy on sanctions against North Korea after the 4th nuclear test. The article envisages how Russia’s growing concerning North Korean issues will affect the bilateral relations between Russia and North Korea, and then three scenarios will be described as prospects for future relations. In conclusion, policy recommendations for South Korea are suggested.

UCI(KEPA)

I410-ECN-0102-2018-300-004294366

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • :
  • : 반년간
  • : 2671-6860
  • :
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1996-2022
  • : 334


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1Restructuring the World Order: China's Perspective

저자 : Jiyong Zheng , Hao Xue , Xingxing Wang

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 27권 1호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 8-25 (18 pages)

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China-U.S. relations have entered a downward spiral. The structural conflict between China and the United States is related to how the two countries view the new world order in the future. This article tries to explore the roots and essence of the United States' perception of China, discuss how China views the future world order, and analyze the risks of U.S. behavior toward China and China's propositions and claims for the future world order.

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What factors determine the success and failure of Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)? What factors and conditions enhance the effectiveness of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) nonproliferation regimes? Does correlation exist between the regime effectiveness and the great power's support for the said regimes? If so, under what circumstances does the great power support or reject regimes?
This study seeks to identify the determinants of the success and failure of nonproliferation regime of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) under the U.N. system. The international efforts to ensure the life and safety of mankind from WMD have led to create 19 WMD nonproliferation regimes starting with the Geneva Protocol in 1925. Among 19 WMD nonproliferation regimes, only four regimes (CWC, INF, NPT, IAEA) have strong implementation power and are considered successful while five regimes (PTBT, Tlatelolco, CTBTO, IND NNT, Pelindaba) have not been ratified by states parties and thus have not gone into effect.
Case studies of successful regimes and failed regimes reveal the factors that enhance the regime's ability to implement, and illustrate why the great power selectively supports or rejects particular regimes and helps strengthen the implementation. This study reveals the factors that impel the great power to support or reject the nonproliferation regime of WMD, which can be a very useful tool to evaluate the regime's effectiveness and predict the future of regimes.
By comparing successful cases of the CWC with failures of the BWC, this research asserts that four determinants influence the great power's decision to support or reject regimes: 'non-restraint,' economic interests, the technology gap, and bargaining. Regardless of the counterparts' aims and the type of weapon, the great power provides full support to strengthen the effectiveness of a regime that i) will not constrain its freedom of behaviors; ii) will enhance economic interests; iii) concerns the field where there is a relatively narrow technology gap between the great power and regional powers; and iv) necessitates bargaining with regional powers to garner support.
The implications of this study can be applied to the BWC, which remains weak in responding to North Korea's biological threats on the Korean peninsula. Moreover, provided that future pandemic may not be of naturally occurring diseases but of artificial biological terrorism and deliberate attacks, measures to strengthen the implementation of the Biological Weapons Convention must be urgently needed to respond to large-scale biological incidents including the next pandemic that will require transnational responses.

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3The Defensive Surge: Psychological Reasons for Why Leaders Double Down on Failing Wars

저자 : Dongjoon Park

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 27권 1호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 50-65 (16 pages)

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Why do leaders double down on wars and other unpopular foreign policies that the public opposes? Criticism of costly wars creates a dilemma for decision-makers as both maintaining and changing existing strategies have negative consequences for their prospect of remaining in office. To resolve this dilemma, leaders may opt to 'gamble for resurrection' to achieve victory. While valid, existing arguments that adopt the rationalist approach about the preference of leaders and the informative function of polls rely on narrow assumptions about decision-making. Psychological mechanisms broaden our understanding of how difficult policy choices are made. Specifically, this article contends that the psychological pressures created by the public's negative assessments of the competence of leaders constitute a threat to leaders' self-esteem, which, in turn, triggers psychological defensive mechanisms. Common defensive mechanisms, including reaction formation, isolation, and denial, make it more likely that leaders commit further to failing wars and unsuccessful foreign policies. These mechanisms are substantiated through an analysis of the Bush administration's Surge in Iraq in 2007. The article contributes to the literature by highlighting additional pathways through which public opinion impacts foreign policy decision-making, not only through electoral consequences but also through implicit signals regarding the public's views on leaders' ability to lead.

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4The Application of Non-Kinetic Effects in Modern Warfare

저자 : Kwang Ho Chun

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 27권 1호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 66-82 (17 pages)

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Over the past two decades, non-kinetic effects have become core to the warfare undertaken by democratic countries. International security and human rights issues are now prominently at the forefront of international discourse, and these political areas have influenced profoundly military applications of force. Accordingly, the strategic environment of warfare has shifted; military strategists are now forced to avoid lethality in warfare wherever possible. In contrast, asymmetric enemies, like international terrorist groups, have tended to show their military power. In this new paradigm, the United States and its allies are shifting military doctrines away from traditional concepts such as overwhelming force or air superiority and are seeking new ways to protect international peace without avoidable casualties and collateral damage. This study argues that non-kinetic effects-based operations will shape these new strategies in the next era of international security and human rights.

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5Disguised Peace and North Korea's Strategic Avoidance on the Korean Peninsula

저자 : Sangbeom Yoo

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 27권 1호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 83-97 (15 pages)

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A recent study on the effect of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula argues that it will not cause instability in the country by showing that no North Korean military provocation is anticipated after the withdrawal. However, I theorize that U.S. forces reduction will, rather, create relatively more peaceful circumstances because North Korea strategically will see to avoid any instability that may stop the withdrawal, which is not North Korea's real intention. Based on this concept of strategic avoidance, this paper hypothesizes a negative relationship between U.S. force reduction and North Korean military provocation, and between the actual size of the U.S. forces and the peaceful behavior of North Korea. The result indicates that peace after force reduction can be explained by strategic avoidance, which means that temporary peace is not North Korea's genuine intention but a byproduct of its devious tactics that aim to have fewer U.S. boots on the ground.

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6An Analysis of the State of North Korea's Human Security and the Possibility of Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation

저자 : Ilsoo Bae , Jiwon Yun

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 27권 1호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 98-113 (16 pages)

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This article aims to examine the elements of the crises and challenges of South-North Korean cooperation after the sixth nuclear test in North Korea in 2017 and to consider the possibility of South-North Korean cooperation concerning human security and the actual state of human security in North Korea in the sectors of welfare and food. Most importantly, the welfare and food sectors have become the most important issue of human security in North Korea due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These are directly connected to its survival accompanied by urgency and sensitivity. Welfare and food support are considered a matter in the field that can achieve cooperation without any strong objection from North Korea in addition to international cooperation for humanitarian purposes. If these forms of South-North Korean cooperation become possible, they could become the trigger that opens the gate of communication in the South-North Korean relationship that is fixed with chronic welfare and food problems in North Korea and the relief of the economic sanctions in North Korea as prescribed by the UN and the US. The possibility of South-North Korean exchange through enhanced human security may be expanded to the relief of North Korean sanctions for the assurance of humanitarian activity, international cooperation, and governance construction. At the same time, if South-North Korean cooperation is approached from a human security point of view, it may create momentum that results in the settlement of peace on the Korean Peninsula by acting as a catalyst that could relieve the problem of welfare and food faced by North Korea and transform the hardened South-North Korean relationship into a more conversational paradigm.

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7A study on North Korea's Hypersonic Missile Development: Threat Analysis and Suggestions for the South Korean Military

저자 : Geunho Song

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 27권 1호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 114-132 (19 pages)

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This paper attempts to assess the threats from North Korea's first Hwasung-8 hypersonic missile test in 2021 and another hypersonic missile test undertaken in January 2022. Through examination of the current status, purpose, and capability of North Korea's hypersonic missile development, we evaluate the current status and threat of North Korea's hypersonic missile development and review the countermeasures of the South Korean military.
Hypersonic missiles constitute a new weapon system currently being developed in some technologically advanced countries, including the United States, Russia, and China. They are dubbed a game-changer of war because it is impossible to defend them with a general ballistic missile defense system. Thus, North Korea's hypersonic missile test was a big shock to South Korea. North Korea's development of hypersonic missiles should be established through objective evaluation of South Korea's missile defense system. Since hypersonic missiles are different from ordinary ballistic missiles in terms of their capabilities, such as speed and maneuver, it is difficult to establish a counter-defense weapon system. North Korea's development of hypersonic missiles poses a threat to South Korea's peace and security; thus, a response is needed. First, South Korea should analyze North Korea's intentions behind developing hypersonic missiles and its threats. Second, South Korea should strengthen its missile capabilities to cope with military threats from North Korea's development of hypersonic missile technology. Lastly, South Korea should surpass North Korea in the hypersonic missile development.
This study is meaningful in that it analyzed the North's hypersonic missile development and test process and its threats to South Korea and neighboring countries. It also studied countermeasures of the South Korean military. Access to information such as North Korea's hypersonic missile flight data was restricted; hence, analysis of North Korea's hypersonic missile capability was limited. Nonetheless, this study will provide substantial grounds to encourage in-depth research on North Korea's supersonic missile development in the future.

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8Ukraine-Russia War and a Nuclear Crisis: How Dangerous It Could Be?

저자 : Tae-hyung Kim

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 27권 1호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 133-153 (21 pages)

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One of the most worrisome aspects of the current war on Ukraine is its possibility of escalating to a nuclear level. How likely is Moscow to employ nuclear weapons in the conflict? Is this crisis more or less likely to get worse than other nuclear crises? I try to find out some answers by looking at specific characteristics of the ongoing nuclear crisis. The paper begins with a basic framework of the nuclear crisis developed by Bell and Macdonald. Then I delve into the development and evolution of Russia's nuclear strategy. By applying Bell and Macdonald's theoretical framework to the ongoing nuclear crisis, I cautiously conclude that the current crisis is closer to the staircase model, where a nuclear first use incentive is moderate to relatively high, and crisis controllability is high. Therefore, the possibility of the current crisis escalating to a nuclear level may not be so high. There is certainly a risk of analyzing an ongoing crisis, and future research needs to address theoretical and practical shortcomings.

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1A Systematic Analysis of the Early Trump Foreign Policy: Implications for Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula

저자 : Dongsoo Kim

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 23권 1호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 4-20 (17 pages)

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Donald Trump was elected as 45th U.S. President in 2016. The conventional understanding of President Trump when his administration started in early 2017 was that he had a unique personality as a politician, and therefore, the U.S. under his leadership would pursue different foreign policy goals and strategies to achieve them, distinct from his predecessors. Against this background, this study aims to address such questions as “Is he really different from his predecessors?” or “Will U.S. foreign policies under Trump be totally different from those of the past?” Especially, this study will analyze Trump's foreign policy orientations, utilizing dimensions of foreign policy analysis: security, prosperity, and community values. Based on the analysis of the fundamentals of the Trump administration's foreign policy, this study will also discuss its policy toward Northeast Asia, especially the Korean peninsula.

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2Inter-Korean Relations: From Nuclear Confrontation to Peaceful Coexistence

저자 : Tae-hwan Kwak

발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 간행물 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 23권 1호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 21-41 (21 pages)

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President Moon Jae-in has tried hard to make his efforts to restore frozen inter-Korean relations for nine years under two conservative presidents. As a result, inter-Korean relations are now improving on the Korean peninsula. Koreans lived in reality under the risk of a possible nuclear war on the Korean peninsula. The contributing factors leading to the potential crisis on the Korean peninsula include the US-ROK joint military exercises, North Korea's nuclear test/ intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch tests, a war of words between the US and North Korean leaders, and demonstrations of US strategic assets in 2017 surrounding the Korean peninsula. This article briefly evaluates President Moon's North Korea policy, root-causes of North Korean nuclear armament, and five conditions for North Korean nuclear abandonment. The article makes a creative proposal for a three-phase roadmap for denuclearization and a peace regime building on the Korean peninsula. Finally, the author will make policy suggestions for denuclearizing the Korean peninsula and establishing a permanent peace system on the Korean peninsula.

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This article briefly reviews the background of the marketization of North Korea and focuses on recalibrating South Korea's economic policy towards the DPRK by using the theory of William O. Chittick's logic of the three basic approaches to foreign policy. The determinant factors in making foreign policy are identification, security, and economic prosperity. This article analyzes several signs of emergent capitalism in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and examines the impact of the Jangmadang generations on system change in the DPRK. Emphasizing the positive impact of the “Jangmadang generation,” we conclude that North Korea's introduction of market socialism can become successful by promoting financier elites who can negotiate with the regime.

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4Russia's Policy on North Korean Nuclear Issue: Before and After, Imposing Sanctions against North Korea

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This paper suggests that Russia's will and capabilities for intervening in the North Korean nuclear issue can be a constant variable in Korean affairs. To defend this statement, this paper begins by briefly reviewing Russia's policy toward North Korea until the imposing of sanctions by the United Nations in 2016. It goes on to analyze Russia's policy on sanctions against North Korea after the 4th nuclear test. The article envisages how Russia's growing concerning North Korean issues will affect the bilateral relations between Russia and North Korea, and then three scenarios will be described as prospects for future relations. In conclusion, policy recommendations for South Korea are suggested.

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5Divergent Interpretations of the R2P and Human Security: Implications for Governance Challenges in Myanmar

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The differences between “Asian” and “Western” understandings of human security, the responsibility to protect, and the relationship between these concepts have led to radically different policy proposals for engaging “rogue” regimes. Essentially the “West” holds a narrow view of human security, but an interventionary interpretation of R2P, with the two being closely linked; whereas in Asia the linkage between the two is rejected, and a broad conceptualization of human security, along with a non-interventionary understanding of the R2P dominates. This paper first addresses evidence of competing epistemological frameworks upon policy-formation in Western and Asian champions of human security and the R2P. It then assesses the impact of these policy orientations in Myanmar (one of the most governance-challenged states in the world), followed by policy prescription for ongoing challenges in the country and wider region. The findings of this article are that the combination of Western interventionary pressures, with Asian non-judgmental engagement, creates the best conditions to facilitate governance transformation within a target state. Pressure from the West creates incentives not only for the target state to accept help, but also for Asian actors to offer it; while Asian offers of assistance are more readily accepted due to their anti-interventionary legacy.

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