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국방대학교 안보문제연구소> The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA)> A Systematic Analysis of the Early Trump Foreign Policy: Implications for Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula

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A Systematic Analysis of the Early Trump Foreign Policy: Implications for Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula

Dongsoo Kim
  • : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소
  • : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) 23권1호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2018년 06월
  • : 4-20(17pages)
The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA)

DOI


목차

Introduction
Previous Analyses of Trump's Foreign Policy
Analytical Framework
Analysis of the Foreign Policy of the Trump Administration
Conclusion: Implications for Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula
References

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초록 보기

Donald Trump was elected as 45th U.S. President in 2016. The conventional understanding of President Trump when his administration started in early 2017 was that he had a unique personality as a politician, and therefore, the U.S. under his leadership would pursue different foreign policy goals and strategies to achieve them, distinct from his predecessors. Against this background, this study aims to address such questions as “Is he really different from his predecessors?” or “Will U.S. foreign policies under Trump be totally different from those of the past?” Especially, this study will analyze Trump’s foreign policy orientations, utilizing dimensions of foreign policy analysis: security, prosperity, and community values. Based on the analysis of the fundamentals of the Trump administration’s foreign policy, this study will also discuss its policy toward Northeast Asia, especially the Korean peninsula.

UCI(KEPA)

I410-ECN-0102-2018-300-004294331

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • :
  • : 반년간
  • : 2671-6860
  • :
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1996-2022
  • : 338


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3The Influence of Naval Competition between the United States and China on the Militarization over Asian Maritime Claims

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Recent interactions between China and the United States have displayed intense competition between the two great powers and signaled intensified instability in Asian waters: A collision between a Chinese fighter and a U.S. Navy EP-3 in 2001, harassment of Chinese vessels to the survey ship USNS Impeccable in 2009, and a dangerous encounter between a U.S. naval warship, Decatur, and a Chinese naval warship, Lanzhou, near the Spratly Islands in 2018. These skirmishes in Asian maritime areas have aroused great interest from scholars and practitioners who study conflictual behaviors between the two great powers, the United States and China. This research focuses on how naval power dynamics between the United States and China influence their conflictual behaviors in Asian waters. Similar to the hegemonic stability arguments, as the challenger (China) decreases a naval power gap with the dominant state (the United States), the former becomes dissatisfied with and questions the existing order, which increases uncertainty over Asian waters. Empirical results show that as China modernizes its naval power and reduces a naval power gap with the United States, the number of conflictual behaviors over maritime claims in Asia increases.

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This article examines the nexus between economic ties and security on the Korean Peninsula by discussing three causal mechanisms. First, economic ties increase opportunity costs to constrain the two Koreas' conflict behavior. Second, inter-Korean economic ties allow either or both to send a costly signal about their resolves during a crisis. Third, economic ties transform domestic interests and preferences in favor of cooperation. Through these analytical lenses, the past operation at the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) did not clearly show its pacifying effect on security on the Korean Peninsula due to its low opportunity costs, weak signaling, and stalled transformation of interests and preferences in both countries. Those who support the liberal peace process with hope for the KIC resumption need to articulate these mechanisms from a long-term perspective while acknowledging the marginal impact of pacifying security effect in the short term. Without measures to improve its efficiency of operation and earn domestic support, the KIC, if reopened, would remain liberals' unfulfilled promise.

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Donald Trump was elected as 45th U.S. President in 2016. The conventional understanding of President Trump when his administration started in early 2017 was that he had a unique personality as a politician, and therefore, the U.S. under his leadership would pursue different foreign policy goals and strategies to achieve them, distinct from his predecessors. Against this background, this study aims to address such questions as “Is he really different from his predecessors?” or “Will U.S. foreign policies under Trump be totally different from those of the past?” Especially, this study will analyze Trump's foreign policy orientations, utilizing dimensions of foreign policy analysis: security, prosperity, and community values. Based on the analysis of the fundamentals of the Trump administration's foreign policy, this study will also discuss its policy toward Northeast Asia, especially the Korean peninsula.

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2Inter-Korean Relations: From Nuclear Confrontation to Peaceful Coexistence

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The differences between “Asian” and “Western” understandings of human security, the responsibility to protect, and the relationship between these concepts have led to radically different policy proposals for engaging “rogue” regimes. Essentially the “West” holds a narrow view of human security, but an interventionary interpretation of R2P, with the two being closely linked; whereas in Asia the linkage between the two is rejected, and a broad conceptualization of human security, along with a non-interventionary understanding of the R2P dominates. This paper first addresses evidence of competing epistemological frameworks upon policy-formation in Western and Asian champions of human security and the R2P. It then assesses the impact of these policy orientations in Myanmar (one of the most governance-challenged states in the world), followed by policy prescription for ongoing challenges in the country and wider region. The findings of this article are that the combination of Western interventionary pressures, with Asian non-judgmental engagement, creates the best conditions to facilitate governance transformation within a target state. Pressure from the West creates incentives not only for the target state to accept help, but also for Asian actors to offer it; while Asian offers of assistance are more readily accepted due to their anti-interventionary legacy.

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