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Economic Integration Agreements and the Survival of Exports

Kemal Turkcan , Hulya Saygılı
  • : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소
  • : Journal of Economic Integration 33권1호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2018년 03월
  • : 1046-1095(50pages)
Journal of Economic Integration

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This study investigates how various Economic Integration Agreements between Turkey and its trading partners affected the exports of machinery during 1998~2013. In addition, it differentiates between trade in parts and components and finished products, and assesses the effects of Economic Integration Agreements separately on these two types of goods. Using a discrete-time probit model with random effects, we show that an Economic Integration Agreement increases the survival of export relations which were initiated before the agreement. It is found to be reasonably heterogeneous, that is, the effect is found to be larger for parts and components exports occurring within the Global Production Networks compared to finished products exports.

UCI(KEPA)

I410-ECN-0102-2018-300-004059225

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 경제학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SCOPUS
  • : 계간
  • : 1225-651X
  • : 1976-5525
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1986-2019
  • : 887


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1Trade Policy Space, Economic Growth, and Transitional Convergence in terms of Economic Development

저자 : Sena Kimm Gnangnon

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 34권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 1-37 (37 pages)

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The present study proposes a quantitative measure of the concept of trade policy space and investigates its impact on countries' economic growth and transitional convergence in terms of economic development. In this study, trade policy space is considered as the room for maneuver available to a government once its current trade policy departs from the structural domestic and international factors that could influence the trade policy. The transitional convergence is defined as the catch up of a country's real per capita income with the world's average real per capita income. The empirical analysis covering 150 countries from 1995 to 2015 shows that although the trade policy space exerts a positive impact on economic growth, this positive effect depends on countries' structural policies. Furthermore, the study results indicate that the trade policy space exerts a positive and significant effect on transitional convergence, and the greater the trade policy space, the higher is the transitional convergence.

KCI등재 SCOPUS

2The Determinants of Trade Costs in the East African Community

저자 : Sheila Mwendwa Kaminchia

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 34권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 38-85 (48 pages)

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This paper assesses the East African Community's (EAC) effectiveness in integrating member countries by lowering total bilateral trade costs. First, information is provided on the size and distribution of bilateral trade costs among 16 manufacturing industries over the period 1990~2012 for a sample comprising five EAC countries and 87 of their trade partners. The estimates indicate that it costs on average three times more for an EAC country to trade manufactured goods with another EAC country than to trade those goods domestically. The estimates also indicate that it costs on average eight times more for an EAC country to trade manufactured goods with a non-EAC country than to trade those goods domestically. This paper then shows the importance of natural and policy-related factors in determining the trade costs.

KCI등재 SCOPUS

3Does Divestment Risk Evolution of MNE Subsidiaries Display an Inverse U-Shaped Form?

저자 : Antonios Georgopoulos , Vasilios Sogiakas

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 34권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 86-108 (23 pages)

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The current study investigates the evolutionary path of divestment risk of MNE subsidiaries in a regionally integrated area. Although descriptive statistics tend to indicate an inverse U-shaped path of divestment risk for the whole post-war era (1960~2015), including the protectionism period (1960~1980), the Kaplan-Meier survivor curve is monotonically decreasing across the three successive stages of EU integration (1981~2015). Moreover, the econometric findings exhibit that divestment risk stabilization at the deep integration stage is due to investment in product differentiation and human capital and not to factor differentials such as tariffs and wage costs. To our best knowledge, this is the first study that explores the evolution of foreign divestment risk in a gradually increasing integrated environment.

KCI등재 SCOPUS

4Regional Integration and Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions in Africa

저자 : Magdalene Kasyoka Wilson , Alain Pholo Bala

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 34권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 109-132 (24 pages)

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This study uses a structural gravity model to examine how regional integration affected cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in Africa during the period from 2000 to 2014. We found that customs unions in Africa, specifically the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) and the East African Community (EAC) were significant drivers of M&As by firms within the unions but not for those outside the unions, perhaps the result of the relatively small size of these economic blocs. The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) do not appear to encourage either intra- or extra- regional M&A flows. These findings suggest that the depth of regional integration determines intra-regional M&A flows in Africa. Therefore, African governments should strengthen existing economic integration agreements to benefit more from cross-border M&A flows from within the regional blocs and to attract foreign investment from non-member countries.

KCI등재 SCOPUS

5De jure, De facto Globalization and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

저자 : Hodabalo Bataka

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 34권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 133-158 (26 pages)

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Using data from 40 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1980 to 2015, the present study examines the effects of globalization and its dimensions on economic growth by distinguishing the de jure and de facto aspects. Through second-generation panel data tests, the study analyzes the cross-sectional dependence between the countries studied and adopts an appropriate methodology for its effectiveness treatment. The study finds an economic growth effect for the overall globalization in SSA countries. It also demonstrates that de jure globalization increases economic growth, while de facto aspect undermines this growth. However, this is still evidence that de jure, de facto economic globalization, and de jure social globalization promote economic growth. De facto social globalization and de jure political globalization remain ineffective, while de facto political dimension of globalization hinders growth.

KCI등재 SCOPUS

6Fiscal Policy Effects and Capital Mobility in Latin American Countries

저자 : Jose U. Mora , Rafael A. Acevedo

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 34권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 159-188 (30 pages)

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This paper studies the relationship between the size of the fiscal multiplier and the degree of capital mobility in some Latin American countries. Mundell's (1963) and Fleming's (1962) models show that this effect could be very large or small (close to zero) depending on the exchange rate and the degree of capital mobility, and the potency of a fiscal policy is inversely correlated with the degree of capital mobility. Based on Mora's (2013) model, we argue that the multiplier might not be negatively correlated with capital mobility in these countries. In other words, the potency of fiscal policy could be small because the degree of capital mobility in Latin American countries is quite low. The empirical findings support our hypothesis. We have found that the size of the fiscal multiplier tends to increase or (at least) to remain around 1.40 in these countries in the short run; however, in the long run, this effect tends to decrease significantly to 0.34. These results also suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policies in Latin American countries are still large but could be larger if they become more financially integrated with the rest of the world.

KCI등재 SCOPUS

7The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Depreciation on Cameroon's Trade Balance: Is Devaluation a Remedy for Persistent Trade Deficits?

저자 : Laetitia P. Sokeng Dongfack , Hongbing Ouyang

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 34권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 189-213 (25 pages)

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Time-series data from 1980 to 2016 were analyzed to estimate the impact of local currency (i.e., CFA Franc) devaluation on Cameroon's trade balance. The estimation of short-run and long-run relationships between the variables using Johansen cointegration and the vector error correction model (VECM) as a mean to examine whether the Marshall-Lerner condition (MLC) and the J-curve phenomenon hold in the case of Cameroon yielded mitigated results: Although the MLC is not met for Cameroon, as the sum of the elasticities of demand for exports and imports is not greater than unity, the empirical analysis results provide evidence of correction over the long-run of a prior deterioration of the trade balance at an adjustment speed of 81.17%, thus supporting the existence of the J-curve pattern.

1
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KCI등재SCOUPUS

1Dynamics of Tokyo Electric Power Company and the Nikkei: 1985 to 2016 including the Fukushima disaster

저자 : Serge Rey , Sophie Nivoix

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 979-1010 (32 pages)

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From an asset portfolio management perspective, analyses of the correlations between returns are of great importance. This article investigates the correlations between the rates of return of Tokyo Electric Power Company stock and the Japanese Nikkei index over the lengthy period of 1985 to 2016. Using Markov-switching models, we seek to determine the effects of the Fukushima earthquake disaster compared with those of other shocks on the Japanese financial market. Although the Fukushima catastrophe resulted in more volatile stock prices, it had not changed the correlation structure among asset returns. In addition, both low- and high- volatility regimes, the Nikkei causes Tokyo Electric Power Company, but Tokyo Electric Power Company does not cause the Nikkei.

KCI등재SCOUPUS

2Do BRICS Countries Have Similar Trade Integration Patterns?

저자 : Ehsan Rasoulinezhad , Farkhondeh Jabalameli

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 1011-1045 (35 pages)

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This study explores the similarities of trade integrations in the BRICS member countries. Using time series data from 2001 to 2015 and employing the Panel-Gravity trade model approach, we utilized the separate disaggregated trade data of manufactured goods and raw materials of each BRICS member with United Nations-defined regional groups: the African group, the Asia Pacific group, the Eastern European group, the Latin American and Caribbean group, and the Western European. The analysis results revealed that Russia's manufactured goods and raw material trade integration based on the Heckscher- Ohlin framework with these five regional groups is not similar to that of other BRICS members following the Linder hypothesis. Furthermore, the dominance of China in total trade flows of BRICS has made the Chinese Yuan's effects on trade with partners from different groups stronger than other BRICS members' national currencies impacts. Geographical distance as a proxy for transportation cost has a weaker negative effect on the manufactured goods and raw materials trade patterns of China and India than it does on other countries, creating dissimilarity in the trade patterns of BRICS countries.

KCI등재SCOUPUS

3Economic Integration Agreements and the Survival of Exports

저자 : Kemal Turkcan , Hulya Saygılı

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 1046-1095 (50 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

This study investigates how various Economic Integration Agreements between Turkey and its trading partners affected the exports of machinery during 1998~2013. In addition, it differentiates between trade in parts and components and finished products, and assesses the effects of Economic Integration Agreements separately on these two types of goods. Using a discrete-time probit model with random effects, we show that an Economic Integration Agreement increases the survival of export relations which were initiated before the agreement. It is found to be reasonably heterogeneous, that is, the effect is found to be larger for parts and components exports occurring within the Global Production Networks compared to finished products exports.

KCI등재SCOUPUS

4The Asymmetric Responses of Stock Markets

저자 : Abderrazak Dhaoui , Stephane Goutte , Khaled Guesmi

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 1096-1140 (45 pages)

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This paper investigates how oil price shocks interact with oil-importing and oil-exporting stock markets within a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag framework. By defining oil prices as endogenous variables, this model allows us to gage the shock transmission among the system variables and consider the asymmetric long- and short-run effects. Our empirical findings show an asymmetric long-run relation between stock market prices and macroeconomic fundamentals. These results suggest that investors should adjust their investment strategies to changes in oil prices and consider the asymmetry when forecasting and managing the negative impacts of unexpected events.

KCI등재SCOUPUS

5External Debt and Economic Growth : The Case of Emerging Economy

저자 : Sami Al Kharusi , Mbah Stella Ada

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 1141-1157 (17 pages)

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This study investigated the relationship between government external borrowing and economic growth, prompted by continuous increases in Oman's external debt to finance its annual budget. Time series data for the period 1990~2015 were collected from the World Bank and the Central Bank of Oman. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag cointegration approach explain the error correction mechanism to ascertain the short-run dynamic nature of external debt and economic growth. Consistent with some existing empirical evidence, the study reveals a negative and significant influence of external debt on economic growth in Oman. Further, gross fixed capital was found to be positively significant in determining growth performance in Oman. The study, therefore, recommends a more productive use of the external debt fund in order to affect positive growth.

KCI등재SCOUPUS

6EU-China Trade: Geography and Institutions from 2001 to 2015

저자 : Dimitrios Karkanis

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 1158-1175 (18 pages)

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This paper applies a gravity model to assess the factors underlying trade between the European Union and China separately for the exports and imports from 2001 to 2015. The two models are estimated for the 28 European Union countries. A panel data analysis aims to capture the effect of time on trade flows in view of the dynamic process of economic integration in the EU and the global financial crisis. The results suggest that the insularity and landlocked nature of several European Union member states are beneficial for bilateral trade flows. The entry of the European countries into the European Union, their alignment under a common monetary policy in the Eurozone environment, and the subsequent gradual adoption of a common currency have brought a higher degree of interconnectivity between the member states and have also made a positive contribution to European Union-China bilateral trade expansion.

KCI등재SCOUPUS

7African Regional Trade Agreements and Intra-African Trade

저자 : Nicholas Ngepah , Maxwell C. Udeagha

발행기관 : 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 간행물 : Journal of Economic Integration 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 1176-1199 (24 pages)

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This paper investigates regional trade agreements in Africa by using panel data spanning 1995~2014. Trade creation and diversion effects are assessed through a gravity model estimated using the Eicker-White robust covariance Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method. This method proves superior to the usual nonlinear least square estimators, especially against heteroscedasticity and data with zero value. The findings suggest that regional trade agreements may enhance trade. The differences in effects can be matched with the effectiveness in implementation by respective member countries. The trade gains of regional trade agreements do not come at the expense of trade with non-members. By controlling for the duration within a regional trade agreement, we also show that a very small but significant share of the benefits occurs over time in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa, Southern African Development Community, Southern African Customs Union, and West African Economic and Monetary Union. Trade benefits seem to decline over time in the East African Community.

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