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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> Terrorism`s Place in South Korean Grand Strategy

KCI등재SSCI

Terrorism`s Place in South Korean Grand Strategy

Robert E. Kelly
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권3호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2017년 09월
  • : 409-428(20pages)
Korean journal of defense analysis

DOI


목차

Introduction
Terrorism in Korean National Security Strategy
Defining Terrorism, and the North Korea Problem
South Korea`s History of Terrorism
Vulnerabilities
Conclusion
Notes
Notes on Contributor

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초록 보기

If one understands North Korea`s provocations as terrorism rather than irregular warfare, then terrorism is arguably a chronic national security threat to South Korea. Similarly, the modernization of South Korea has put its citizens, corporations, and soldiers out into the world and raised their exposure to traditional non-state (Islamic, nationalist, and so on) terrorism. Yet South Korea`s two national security strategies to date scarcely touch on the issue, while Korea`s foremost security journal, the Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, has only published a handful of articles on the topic. Hence, this article seeks to place terrorism more coherently within South Korea`s growing grand strategy debate. It argues that Northern provocations fit within post-9/11 thinking about terrorism, and that South Koreans are targets of opportunity in the current salafist terror wave due to their alliance with America, Protestant evangelization overseas, and status as Buddhists, Confucians, or Christians in jihadists` “clash of civilizations” mindset. Terrorism event counts against South Koreans, including fatalities, are quantitatively presented. The totals are low, so the threat, while new, is middling, not existential. South Korea need not overreact as America arguably did to 9/11. Policies such as moderate homeland security measures, distance from expansive U.S. goals in the war on terror, and a wariness of Middle Eastern engagements are recommended.

UCI(KEPA)

I410-ECN-0102-2018-300-000712629

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • : 1941-4641
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2022
  • : 899


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What accounts for the pace, timing, and scope of the U.S.-ROK alliance's evolution? Through the prism of historical institutionalism, I construct a novel explanation for how the alliance, in particular its rule on operational control, has been subject to the confluence of internally generated dynamics, exogenous junctures, and historical processes. First, I illustrate how three crises―a coup in 1961, ROK forces deployment to Vietnam in 1965, and North Korea's provocations in 1968―were instrumental in exposing flaws and gaps, unanticipated in the original alliance design. Second, episodic analysis shows how each juncture temporarily loosened the structural constraints and allowed ROK to push for incremental revisions on U.S. vertical and unilateral exercise of operational control over ROK forces. Third, they collectively generated negative feedback, contributing to the establishment of more horizontal and institutionalized Combined Forces Command in 1978. The study highlights a client ally's agency and historical institutionalism's promise in understanding international security institutions.

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Though the United States and China emphasize the significance of multilateral frameworks, they have not departed from power politics. As the confrontation between U.S.-led and Chinese-style multilateralism intensifies, the practice of multilateral cooperation based on openness and responsibility is losing ground. In this context, this paper compares U.S.-led multilateralism and Chinese-style multilateralism to examine U.S.-China rivalry in multilateral mechanisms. It then zooms in on the rivalry in the context of the Indo-Pacific region. U.S. President Biden's key strategy in his China policy is represented by the catchphrase “cooperate, compete, confront,” dubbed the “3C framework,” reflecting the complexities of U.S.-China relations. While the two states tend to show a mix of competition and cooperation relative to global multilateral mechanisms, they exhibit a mix of competition and conflict in the Indo-Pacific. The paper analyzes recent United States and Chinese approaches towards topical multilateral issues: on climate change issues for the former and on cybersecurity and advanced technology for the latter.

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What distinguishes China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) from other countries' armies is the fact that the PLA was in existence, initially with a different name though, before the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the legitimate government of China, as opposed to the Republic of China (ROC) government, or the Nationalist government, that retreated to Taiwan after losing the Civil War. As an armed wing of the Communist Party of China (CPC) since its inception in 1927, the PLA has undergone a considerable transformation from a “millet plus rifles” force to one that Beijing can count on as a powerful backing for its “wolf warrior” diplomacy. The meaning behind all this is that China's military modernization efforts are paying off. Analyzing historical events in chronological order, this paper aims to find out how the wars involving or impacting China over the past seven decades, as well as specific international conflicts and China's domestic politics in the same period of time, have contributed to the PLA's modernization to date. The most recent round of military reform initiated by Chinese President Xi Jinping serves as a case for analysis in depth so as to have a better understanding of the PLA's modernization.

KCI등재 SSCI

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발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 433-452 (20 pages)

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China has gradually shifted its geopolitical focus from land-based control to sea-based developments out of both security and economic considerations. Marked by the official launch of its aircraft carriers a decade ago, China has dedicated resources to building up its navy as a blue water force rather than the offshore defensive force that it had primarily been until that point. Meanwhile, by serving as the pillar of sea power, these aircraft carriers will play more important roles in China's naval development, ultimately reshaping the global strategic picture of sea power. This article aims to explore the influence of Chinese aircraft carriers to maritime order of the South China Sea and strategic pattern of global sea power by analyzing the Chinese aircraft carrier fleet's operational design and the reconstruction of China's naval strategy. The presence of Chinese aircraft carriers in the South China Sea and their inherent combat capabilities has inevitably casted a subversive light on the region and brought the attention of the United States' and other regional actors' own activities and strategies for the region. This research has great significance for understanding China's grand strategic conception and practice on the South China Sea issue as well as the construction of a new maritime order in the context of China-U.S. competition.

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The relations between great and middle powers in the Six-Party Talks are a particularly pertinent case in which to discuss the success and failure of multilateral security institutions. Why was this series of negotiations successful at first, followed by a stalemate, and then collapsed after two decades? There are many studies that focus on the behavior of North Korea, China, and the United States from a power perspective. This paper argues that a high degree of cooperation at the bilateral level among the majority of participants is a determining factor for the success of the talks. Strong reciprocal engagements, which are called “thick reinforcements,” resulted in solid unity among participating states and decisive collective action. The research finds different effects caused by combinations of thick reinforcement and weak engagement across dyads. While a strong “contagion effect” contributed to the success of the talks, the occurrence of hedging generated “offsetting” and “neutralization” effects, which stagnated the discussions. This paper develops a new metric to measure the various combinations of bilateral relations among China, South Korea, Japan, Russia, and the United States. The paper finds that in addition to non-proliferation, bilateral engagement and unity are vital for resolving nuclear crises.

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Japan and the United States have been paying particular attention to political stability in Okinawa because of their national defense, security, and other interests, especially regarding the so-called “China threat.” Okinawa has played an important role as the location for U.S. military bases for a long time, and 2022 marks 50 years since Okinawa's return to Japan following the post-war U.S. occupation. Although Okinawa is now included in Japan's peace constitution, U.S. military related incidents continue, including a 1995 incident that incited a massive anti-base protest. Japan responded with a series of economic compensation measures for Okinawa; furthermore, Japan and the United States agreed to relocate the U.S. Futenma air base to another part of Okinawa, Henoko, to stabilize the base politics. However, the over-concentration of U.S. military bases in Okinawa has caused major dissatisfaction among the residents. This paper therefore utilized the Japan's Futenma base relocation process and its governance as a research case by employing the methods of firsthand literature, discourse analysis, and in-depth interviews to analyze the factors of political stability and base relocation. The results of this research found the following three factors―more direct compensation, unique history, and the Henoko environment―that made the relocation of the Futenma base to Henoko possible.

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8Nontraditional Security Diplomacy between China and Japan

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발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 493-512 (20 pages)

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This study takes the argument that nontraditional security (NTS) diplomacy can provide the essential window of opportunity for China and Japan to move beyond traditional diplomatic history. However, NTS issues have become dominant in reforming bilateral relations between China and Japan, though there is no fixed edge in nontraditional security. To reveal, it explores the NTS diplomacy with the importance of nontraditional security issues as substance for the expansion and development of two leading economies. The non-military and transboundary character of NTS threats have constrained courtiers to pursue more substantial levels of security integration. This study argues that the significance of NTS diplomacy is twofold; first, it avoids sensitive historical hostilities and finds common ground for cooperation on NTS threats that traditional approach of diplomacy apparently is unable to envisage. Second, security interdependence approach can turn traditional diplomatic relations of China and Japan into a more conciliatory and prominent path. While NTS threats like natural disasters, environment degradation, and economy crisis have been taken as case studies to provide empirical evidence and significant opportunities for both rival states. This article, to some extent, describes the dynamic between traditional, nontraditional, and nontraditional security diplomacy through China-Japan relations.

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1Assessing Export Controls of Strategic Items to North Korea

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발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 331-348 (18 pages)

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This paper aims to show trading patterns of certain items highly likely to be used to develop nuclear and missile programs in North Korea. It analyzed North Korea`s trade of nuclear―and missile―related items for ten years from 2006 to 2015 to identify items in large volume as well as in increased demand and key suppliers that contribute to sanctions―busting. This paper found that UN sanctions against North Korea were not effective in controlling the flow of strategic items to North Korea. Rather, a small number of states are responsible for a large share of trade with North Korea that has continued to seek alternative suppliers. It also found that China is a single supplier for multiple items and plays a major role along with several others that either specialize in exports of specific items or gradually expand the scope of supplies. Because the presence of a third country that provides North Korea`s resilience and diversion of sanctions is crucial, this paper recommends policy suggestions to enhance effectiveness of the existing sanctions regime.

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2North Korea`s Nuclear and Missile Threat: Recalibration of Policy Measures

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발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 349-369 (21 pages)

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Despite the unceasing efforts of the international community to halt North Korea`s nuclear ambitions, North Korea`s nuclear development and missile technology have aggressively progressed over time. Why did the efforts fail and what would be the new direction to fix the problem, if necessary? To answer these central questions, this paper attempts to analyze the problems of sanctions on North Korea and assess North Korea`s nuclear development and capability. This paper suggests that a recalibration of policy measures, including a dual-track strategy that, on the one hand leads to internal change in the North, while on the other, results in strong external pressure, continues to be significant for the ultimate resolution of North Korea`s nuclear quandaries. If left alone, the nuclear situation in North Korea may likely shift from the previously limited problem of denuclearization on the Korean peninsula to the broader global concern of nonproliferation.

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3How Not To Be Abandoned by China: North Korea`s Nuclear Brinkmanship Revisited

저자 : Hongseo Park , Jae Jeok Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 371-387 (17 pages)

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Whatever motivations lie behind North Korea`s nuclear and missile programs, North Korea has been aware that further nuclear and missile tests would incur increasingly harsh international sanctions. In order to survive the sanctions, North Korea needs to entrap China to its side, for the North Korean economy is highly dependent upon China. In this context, this article argues that North Korea intentionally increases the level of its nuclear and missile threat in order to entrap China (thus, reducing its fear of being abandoned by China). That is, North Korea has elaborated its coercive diplomacy in order to press China to show a strong commitment to their mutual alliance. In order to develop the above argument, this article proceeds as follows. First, as an analytical framework, it applies Glenn Snyder`s concept of the linkage between the alliance game and adversary game to the trilateral relationship among the United States (along with South Korea), China and North Korea. Second, it provides an overview of Sino-North Korean relations from 2006 up to the present, attempting to analyze North Korea`s brinkmanship. Thirdly, it concludes with some policy implications for future trilateral relations, one of which is that China should seriously discuss North Korea contingency plans with the United States and South Korea in order to develop an effective strategy to curb North Korea`s military adventurism. Paradoxically, this would lead to North Korea`s fully considering China`s position.

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4Living among the Elephants: South Korea and Japan`s Response to the U.S.-China Maritime Rivalry in the Asia-Pacific

저자 : Young-june Park

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The rise of China triggers a hot debate in the United States as well as in China concerning whether a rising power can coordinate with the existing power or inevitably confront each other. On this issue, some foresee a possibility of the next great war between the two countries whereas others view the prospect of co-evolution in which Beijing and Washington can shrewdly evade armed conflicts. This paper tries to illustrate how the United States and China are expanding their naval capabilities in parallel with the ongoing strategic debate within China and the United States. The rivalry between the two countries can have a lot of influence on the foreign policies of neighboring countries like South Korea and Japan. This paper also deals with how South Korea and Japan, comparatively small powers, have responded to the super powers` power game in the region. Finally, this paper suggests some policy proposals for South Korea to play a role in stabilizing the regional order.

KCI등재SSCI

5Terrorism`s Place in South Korean Grand Strategy

저자 : Robert E. Kelly

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 409-428 (20 pages)

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If one understands North Korea`s provocations as terrorism rather than irregular warfare, then terrorism is arguably a chronic national security threat to South Korea. Similarly, the modernization of South Korea has put its citizens, corporations, and soldiers out into the world and raised their exposure to traditional non-state (Islamic, nationalist, and so on) terrorism. Yet South Korea`s two national security strategies to date scarcely touch on the issue, while Korea`s foremost security journal, the Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, has only published a handful of articles on the topic. Hence, this article seeks to place terrorism more coherently within South Korea`s growing grand strategy debate. It argues that Northern provocations fit within post-9/11 thinking about terrorism, and that South Koreans are targets of opportunity in the current salafist terror wave due to their alliance with America, Protestant evangelization overseas, and status as Buddhists, Confucians, or Christians in jihadists` “clash of civilizations” mindset. Terrorism event counts against South Koreans, including fatalities, are quantitatively presented. The totals are low, so the threat, while new, is middling, not existential. South Korea need not overreact as America arguably did to 9/11. Policies such as moderate homeland security measures, distance from expansive U.S. goals in the war on terror, and a wariness of Middle Eastern engagements are recommended.

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6Picking a Fight: Democracies, Liberal Constraints, and Selective Conflict Initiation

저자 : Johann Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 429-454 (26 pages)

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Research shows that autocracies as well as democracies have reasons to avoid strong enemies. What, then, make democracies distinctive from autocracies in conflict selection? A critical difference may lie in the normative constraints democracies experience. Focusing on the roles of public sentiment and liberalism, we argue that democrats bearing high levels of accountability are less likely to choose armed conflict without justifiable causes. We assess the roles of three liberal factors in regard to the characteristics of target countries: respect of human rights, democratic representation, and economic interdependence. Material factors, such as relative military capability and geographic constraints are also considered. The results show that both autocracies and democracies tend to attack easier foes, but democracies avoid attacking countries that respect human rights and are economically interdependent. Additionally, unlike autocracies, democracies do not view other democracies as attractive targets of military attacks.

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7U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations in South China Sea: An Ongoing Riddle between the United States and China

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The United States and China`s antithetical stances on freedom of navigation in the South China Sea have consistently caused military tensions in East Asia. Based on employing the crisis bargaining theory, this article postulates that the United States and China are able to implement a hard-line strategy or an accommodative strategy in dealing with the controversial freedom of navigation issue in the South China Sea. This article categorizes each country`s strategies in a 2x2 model and examines four different cases for exploring each country`s payoffs: Case (1) the United States and China can both use force; Case (2) the United States can make unilateral concessions and China can hold its original demands; Case (3) China can make unilateral concessions and the United States can hold its original demands; and Case (4) the United States and China can make strategic compromises to avoid military clashes. This article maintains that the United States and China will choose both accommodative strategies in order to avoid open military conflicts. This article also contends that unilateral concessions either from the United States or China will harshly damage one side`s interest, thereby both countries will not choose unilateral concessions as a plausible option. In addition, both countries` use of force is the most unlikely option.

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8Increasing U.S.-China Strategic Competition: Implications for Pakistan

저자 : Fouzia Amin , Khurshid Khan

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 475-493 (19 pages)

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Historically, China had been a great power and had maintained the largest economy in the world for quite a long time. It would, therefore, like to regain its lost status. There is consensus among many scholars that China would rise peacefully by adopting the five “principles of peaceful co-existence”, thus, it would take a leading role in the 21st century. It is viewed that the United States is already convinced to a great extent that it might not be able to maintain sole dominance for too long in the backdrop of the rising Chinese economic and military power. Based on an in-depth analysis of the issue, the study concludes that China would avoid clashing with Washington and its allies while protecting its economic interests across the globe. Nevertheless, the Chinese would react if their core interests are threatened by the United States and its allies including India. In order to protect its long-term interest in the region and beyond, China would gradually develop its military including its maritime capabilities to increase its influence beyond China`s periphery. However; it is highly unlikely that in the near future, China would contest the United States and its allies beyond the South China Sea. The study also concludes that in this great ongoing game between the quadrangles of the countries, if India makes a principle decision to stand by the United States in the case of a conflict with China over the Indian Ocean, such a scenario would limit Pakistan`s options to either join China or stay neutral. Either of the two options would pose a serious challenge for Pakistan. A decision to stay outside the Great Powers` power politics would be even more difficult.

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