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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> Terrorism`s Place in South Korean Grand Strategy

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Terrorism`s Place in South Korean Grand Strategy

Robert E. Kelly
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권3호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2017년 09월
  • : 409-428(20pages)
Korean journal of defense analysis

DOI


목차

Introduction
Terrorism in Korean National Security Strategy
Defining Terrorism, and the North Korea Problem
South Korea`s History of Terrorism
Vulnerabilities
Conclusion
Notes
Notes on Contributor

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초록 보기

If one understands North Korea`s provocations as terrorism rather than irregular warfare, then terrorism is arguably a chronic national security threat to South Korea. Similarly, the modernization of South Korea has put its citizens, corporations, and soldiers out into the world and raised their exposure to traditional non-state (Islamic, nationalist, and so on) terrorism. Yet South Korea`s two national security strategies to date scarcely touch on the issue, while Korea`s foremost security journal, the Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, has only published a handful of articles on the topic. Hence, this article seeks to place terrorism more coherently within South Korea`s growing grand strategy debate. It argues that Northern provocations fit within post-9/11 thinking about terrorism, and that South Koreans are targets of opportunity in the current salafist terror wave due to their alliance with America, Protestant evangelization overseas, and status as Buddhists, Confucians, or Christians in jihadists` “clash of civilizations” mindset. Terrorism event counts against South Koreans, including fatalities, are quantitatively presented. The totals are low, so the threat, while new, is middling, not existential. South Korea need not overreact as America arguably did to 9/11. Policies such as moderate homeland security measures, distance from expansive U.S. goals in the war on terror, and a wariness of Middle Eastern engagements are recommended.

UCI(KEPA)

I410-ECN-0102-2018-300-000712629

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • : 1941-4641
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2022
  • : 891


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The Biden administration has in general been operating both “strategic ambiguity” and “strategic clarity,” prompting the question: Is the United States being strategically ambiguous or strategically clear towards Taiwan? This paper believes the discussion should start with the clarification of “U.S. policy regarding Taiwan.” However, U.S. policy towards Taiwan involves the highly sensitive One-China policy. Thus, the United States will evaluate its “core interest” in relation to China when dealing with the One-China policy, as mishandling it may trigger a war between the United States and China or the rest of the world. This is the reason why the United States must devise its Taiwan policy at a macro-level and cautious manner.

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In the new era of the U.S.-China strategic rivalry, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) is attempting to transform itself into a world class defense unit by constructing a self-organizing system of defense innovation. Translating its global lead in digitization and economic achievements into military power will entail the integration of critical and emerging technology into its existing weapon clusters and processes, the fielding of new and modified equipment, and the reinforcement of industrial applications such as robotics and autonomous vehicles. Building on developments in the PLA's reform and modernization, this study conducts a systemic examination of China's intelligentization strategy to prevail in the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR). Hard and soft inputs that shape China's ecosystem of defense-innovation, including material, financial, and technological inputs, process factors of plans, strategies, and acquisition, and institutional factors have been examined.

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This paper studies the diffusion of suicide bombings as a tactic employed by terrorist groups from 1981 to 2008. The empirical strategy is motivated by the literature on the diffusion of innovation. Specifically, this paper builds on the literature on the diffusion of policies across states to develop hypotheses about the spread of suicide attacks across space and over time. We use data from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) to evaluate hypotheses about the diffusion of suicide bombings. The results suggest a consistent and robust relationship between geography and the diffusion of suicide bombings. Successful suicide attacks appear to diffuse across borders and to increase over time.

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This paper aims to examine the Eagle Project by analyzing the phase of forging mutual trust between the Korean Provisional Government (hereafter the KPG)'s army, the Korean Independence Army (韓國光復軍, KIA) and the Office of Strategic Services related to the project. Furthermore, this paper concludes that the Eagle Project was neither a trivial preparation nor an unfortunate process on both sides of the Korean and American memories. However, the plan involves what factors would contribute to the formation and transformation of the alliance. During the Pacific War, it was demonstrated that the relationship between the Kuomintang government and the KPG became a major factor in the KPG & KIA's readiness to cooperate with the United States. To them, building rapport with the United States was connected to enhancing their military autonomy. This conviction was largely based on the KPG & KIA's great confidence in the United States and based on their preference for liberal democracy. The influence of the tense situation in the Pacific region made the OSS, the KPG and KIA to recognize the need for their role in developing cooperation between the United States and Korea.

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Whatever motivations lie behind North Korea`s nuclear and missile programs, North Korea has been aware that further nuclear and missile tests would incur increasingly harsh international sanctions. In order to survive the sanctions, North Korea needs to entrap China to its side, for the North Korean economy is highly dependent upon China. In this context, this article argues that North Korea intentionally increases the level of its nuclear and missile threat in order to entrap China (thus, reducing its fear of being abandoned by China). That is, North Korea has elaborated its coercive diplomacy in order to press China to show a strong commitment to their mutual alliance. In order to develop the above argument, this article proceeds as follows. First, as an analytical framework, it applies Glenn Snyder`s concept of the linkage between the alliance game and adversary game to the trilateral relationship among the United States (along with South Korea), China and North Korea. Second, it provides an overview of Sino-North Korean relations from 2006 up to the present, attempting to analyze North Korea`s brinkmanship. Thirdly, it concludes with some policy implications for future trilateral relations, one of which is that China should seriously discuss North Korea contingency plans with the United States and South Korea in order to develop an effective strategy to curb North Korea`s military adventurism. Paradoxically, this would lead to North Korea`s fully considering China`s position.

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저자 : Robert E. Kelly

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 409-428 (20 pages)

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If one understands North Korea`s provocations as terrorism rather than irregular warfare, then terrorism is arguably a chronic national security threat to South Korea. Similarly, the modernization of South Korea has put its citizens, corporations, and soldiers out into the world and raised their exposure to traditional non-state (Islamic, nationalist, and so on) terrorism. Yet South Korea`s two national security strategies to date scarcely touch on the issue, while Korea`s foremost security journal, the Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, has only published a handful of articles on the topic. Hence, this article seeks to place terrorism more coherently within South Korea`s growing grand strategy debate. It argues that Northern provocations fit within post-9/11 thinking about terrorism, and that South Koreans are targets of opportunity in the current salafist terror wave due to their alliance with America, Protestant evangelization overseas, and status as Buddhists, Confucians, or Christians in jihadists` “clash of civilizations” mindset. Terrorism event counts against South Koreans, including fatalities, are quantitatively presented. The totals are low, so the threat, while new, is middling, not existential. South Korea need not overreact as America arguably did to 9/11. Policies such as moderate homeland security measures, distance from expansive U.S. goals in the war on terror, and a wariness of Middle Eastern engagements are recommended.

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6Picking a Fight: Democracies, Liberal Constraints, and Selective Conflict Initiation

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Research shows that autocracies as well as democracies have reasons to avoid strong enemies. What, then, make democracies distinctive from autocracies in conflict selection? A critical difference may lie in the normative constraints democracies experience. Focusing on the roles of public sentiment and liberalism, we argue that democrats bearing high levels of accountability are less likely to choose armed conflict without justifiable causes. We assess the roles of three liberal factors in regard to the characteristics of target countries: respect of human rights, democratic representation, and economic interdependence. Material factors, such as relative military capability and geographic constraints are also considered. The results show that both autocracies and democracies tend to attack easier foes, but democracies avoid attacking countries that respect human rights and are economically interdependent. Additionally, unlike autocracies, democracies do not view other democracies as attractive targets of military attacks.

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The United States and China`s antithetical stances on freedom of navigation in the South China Sea have consistently caused military tensions in East Asia. Based on employing the crisis bargaining theory, this article postulates that the United States and China are able to implement a hard-line strategy or an accommodative strategy in dealing with the controversial freedom of navigation issue in the South China Sea. This article categorizes each country`s strategies in a 2x2 model and examines four different cases for exploring each country`s payoffs: Case (1) the United States and China can both use force; Case (2) the United States can make unilateral concessions and China can hold its original demands; Case (3) China can make unilateral concessions and the United States can hold its original demands; and Case (4) the United States and China can make strategic compromises to avoid military clashes. This article maintains that the United States and China will choose both accommodative strategies in order to avoid open military conflicts. This article also contends that unilateral concessions either from the United States or China will harshly damage one side`s interest, thereby both countries will not choose unilateral concessions as a plausible option. In addition, both countries` use of force is the most unlikely option.

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Historically, China had been a great power and had maintained the largest economy in the world for quite a long time. It would, therefore, like to regain its lost status. There is consensus among many scholars that China would rise peacefully by adopting the five “principles of peaceful co-existence”, thus, it would take a leading role in the 21st century. It is viewed that the United States is already convinced to a great extent that it might not be able to maintain sole dominance for too long in the backdrop of the rising Chinese economic and military power. Based on an in-depth analysis of the issue, the study concludes that China would avoid clashing with Washington and its allies while protecting its economic interests across the globe. Nevertheless, the Chinese would react if their core interests are threatened by the United States and its allies including India. In order to protect its long-term interest in the region and beyond, China would gradually develop its military including its maritime capabilities to increase its influence beyond China`s periphery. However; it is highly unlikely that in the near future, China would contest the United States and its allies beyond the South China Sea. The study also concludes that in this great ongoing game between the quadrangles of the countries, if India makes a principle decision to stand by the United States in the case of a conflict with China over the Indian Ocean, such a scenario would limit Pakistan`s options to either join China or stay neutral. Either of the two options would pose a serious challenge for Pakistan. A decision to stay outside the Great Powers` power politics would be even more difficult.

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