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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> North Korea and Syria: Partners in Destruction and Violence

KCI등재SSCI

North Korea and Syria: Partners in Destruction and Violence

Bruce E Bechtol Jr.
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권3호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2015년 09월
  • : 277-292(16pages)
Korean journal of defense analysis

DOI


목차

North Korea and Syria: Partners in Destruction and Violence
A Historical Look Back at the North Korea-Syria Military Relationship
Nukes, Chemical Weapons, and Missiles: The DPRK’s Proliferation of WMD to Syria
Conventional Weapons Proliferation to Syria: A Vital Aspect of Assad’s Survival
North Korea’s Role in the Syrian Civil War
North Korean Proliferation to Terrorists through Syria
Conclusion
Notes

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초록 보기

North Korea and Syria have a long history of military cooperation. Most of this cooperation has been in the form of North Korean proliferation of weapons, training, assistance, and advisors. North Korea has assisted Syria in at least two forms of WMD-a chemical weapons program, and a plutonium nuclear weaponization program. While both of these programs have been largely destroyed, Syria will likely rebuild its chemical weapons program with North Korean assistance if not deterred by the international community. Conventional weapons are also an international security issue, as North Korea has proliferated a large number of weapons systems that have been used in the Syrian civil war by the Syrian army and Hezbollah fighters. North Korea has been a vital supporter of the Assad regime`s military throughout the Syrian civil war. Korean analysts should take note of how chemical weapons were used in the Syrian civil war because this is likely going to be a test-bed for future North Korean actions in a conflict with the South.

UCI(KEPA)

I410-ECN-0102-2016-390-000439821

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • : 1941-4641
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2022
  • : 891


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Since Kim Jong Un gained power, he introduced several policy directions, or “lines.” There are different interpretations of the nature of the lines, especially in light of Max Weber's “routinization of leadership.” Unlike Kim Jong Il, some studies argue that Kim Jong Un has tried to routinize this authority to transcend charismatic leadership. Especially, his introduction of the “new strategic line of everything for the economy” in April 2018 is an ultimate example of his attempt to routinize leadership. However, this article challenges the argument in three ways. First, the interpretation of Kim Jong Un's lines, including the “economy first” strategic line proposed in April 2018, is not enough to represent the efforts to the routinization of authority. Second, after the breakup of the Hanoi summits in 2019, North Korea has moved to radicalize its policy. Finally, North Korea could choose not to routinize its authority in a more fundamental sense. By analyzing the critical events such as the Third Plenary Meeting of the Seventh Central Committee on April 20, 2018, the Fifth Plenary Meeting of the Seventh Central Committee in December 2019, and the Eighth Party Congress in January 2021, the paper has demonstrated that Kim Jong Un has continued to implement, and even strengthen some radical policies.

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발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 183-205 (23 pages)

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South Korean President Moon Jae-In pushed harder for a transformational inter-Korean détente than any of his predecessors. That his tremendous effort still failed demands explanation. This paper suggests four interlocking reasons, derived from bargaining theory applications in foreign policy analysis: 1) The North Korean Kim Jong Un regime, secure behind its nuclear weapons and domestic repression, preferred its status quo BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) to the capacious American demand for complete, verifiable, irreversible disarmament. Pyongyang can afford to wait for the Americans to offer better terms. 2) South Korean centrist and conservative 'veto-players,' trading on the high popularity of the U.S. alliance in South Korea, blocked Moon from pursuing a Korea--only negotiating track after U.S.-North Korea negotiations stagnated--including a 'future veto' threat to roll back Moon's détente when conservatives next won the South Korean presidency. 3) U.S. domestic players, of unique importance in South Korea because of the tight alliance, also resisted. Moon and U.S. President Donald Trump were unable to win over the deeply skeptical U.S. foreign policy community. 4) Cognitively, Trump himself undercut Moon's effort as much he helped it. Trump's impatience, disinterest in detail, and general disorganization crippled him as a reliable negotiating counterparty for Moon (and Kim). This paper concludes with a narrative of these causes dynamically interacting to illustrate the collapse of Moon's initiative.

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3How South Korea Should Weigh the Risks and Benefits of Entering into a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Memorandum of Understanding (RDP MOU) with the United States

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발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 207-230 (24 pages)

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This article examines the potential risks and benefits for South Korea of entering into a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Memorandum of Understanding (RDP MOU) with the United States. The purpose of an RDP MOU is to promote rationalization, standardization, and interoperability of defense equipment with foreign allies. To achieve this purpose, an RDP MOU calls for a mutual commitment not to discriminate in the area of defense procurement (supplies, services, and R&D), primarily by waiving “buy national” laws that make it difficult for one party to participate in the defense procurement market of the other. First, as a background, the article examines the international agreements under which the two countries have made certain commitments to open their procurement markets. Second, the article examines the U.S. domestic preference laws (“Buy American” laws), which serve as institutional barriers to defense trade. Third, the overall purpose and functions of RDP MOUs are studied, including whether and to what extent they have benefited other U.S. allies. Lastly, the article examines how South Korea should weigh the risks and benefits of entering into an RDP MOU. While arguing that the defense MOU would greatly strengthen the ROK-U.S. alliance, the article nevertheless concludes that South Korea should conduct a proper prefeasibility study, including a cost-benefit analysis for each covered defense- related procurement, before opening up its defense industry.

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발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 231-248 (18 pages)

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The Biden administration has in general been operating both “strategic ambiguity” and “strategic clarity,” prompting the question: Is the United States being strategically ambiguous or strategically clear towards Taiwan? This paper believes the discussion should start with the clarification of “U.S. policy regarding Taiwan.” However, U.S. policy towards Taiwan involves the highly sensitive One-China policy. Thus, the United States will evaluate its “core interest” in relation to China when dealing with the One-China policy, as mishandling it may trigger a war between the United States and China or the rest of the world. This is the reason why the United States must devise its Taiwan policy at a macro-level and cautious manner.

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5The Fourth Industrial Revolution and China's Defense Innovation in Intelligent Systems

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발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 249-273 (25 pages)

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In the new era of the U.S.-China strategic rivalry, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) is attempting to transform itself into a world class defense unit by constructing a self-organizing system of defense innovation. Translating its global lead in digitization and economic achievements into military power will entail the integration of critical and emerging technology into its existing weapon clusters and processes, the fielding of new and modified equipment, and the reinforcement of industrial applications such as robotics and autonomous vehicles. Building on developments in the PLA's reform and modernization, this study conducts a systemic examination of China's intelligentization strategy to prevail in the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR). Hard and soft inputs that shape China's ecosystem of defense-innovation, including material, financial, and technological inputs, process factors of plans, strategies, and acquisition, and institutional factors have been examined.

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6A Janus-Faced Security Landscape: An Analysis of the East Asian Security Environment

저자 : Nam Kyu Kim , Jaebeom Kwon

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 275-299 (25 pages)

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East Asia has become more salient on the international stage, economically and strategically. Considering its significance, many scholars have paid attention to the regional security environment. They consider East Asia a peaceful region because there has been no inter-state war, and attempt to explore factors preventing wars in East Asia. We believe that the focus on the absence of war would not only fail to provide a whole picture of the current East Asian security condition but also give a false impression that this region is stable and secure. Accordingly, we attempt to provide a detailed descriptive look at the current security environment of East Asia by focusing on various aspects of the security environment. We show that East Asia suffers from intense tensions, while it has avoided serious interstate conflict. By drawing on various perspectives, we attempt to explain the seemingly contradictory phenomenon in this region, a co-existence of intense hostility and negative peace. The U.S.-China competition, territorial disputes, and the ineffectiveness of regional institutions have intensified intra-regional tension, undermining potentials for developing security cooperation. Nevertheless, the security role of the United States and a high level of intra-regional economic integration have prevented the occurrence of serious militarized conflict.

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7The Spatial Diffusion of Suicide Attacks

저자 : Kiyoung Chang , William Reed

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 301-318 (18 pages)

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This paper studies the diffusion of suicide bombings as a tactic employed by terrorist groups from 1981 to 2008. The empirical strategy is motivated by the literature on the diffusion of innovation. Specifically, this paper builds on the literature on the diffusion of policies across states to develop hypotheses about the spread of suicide attacks across space and over time. We use data from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) to evaluate hypotheses about the diffusion of suicide bombings. The results suggest a consistent and robust relationship between geography and the diffusion of suicide bombings. Successful suicide attacks appear to diffuse across borders and to increase over time.

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8The Diplomatic and Military Relations between Korean Provisional Government and the United States: Mutual Perception of the Eagle Project

저자 : Cha Hyeonji , Kim Doo-jin

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 319-338 (20 pages)

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This paper aims to examine the Eagle Project by analyzing the phase of forging mutual trust between the Korean Provisional Government (hereafter the KPG)'s army, the Korean Independence Army (韓國光復軍, KIA) and the Office of Strategic Services related to the project. Furthermore, this paper concludes that the Eagle Project was neither a trivial preparation nor an unfortunate process on both sides of the Korean and American memories. However, the plan involves what factors would contribute to the formation and transformation of the alliance. During the Pacific War, it was demonstrated that the relationship between the Kuomintang government and the KPG became a major factor in the KPG & KIA's readiness to cooperate with the United States. To them, building rapport with the United States was connected to enhancing their military autonomy. This conviction was largely based on the KPG & KIA's great confidence in the United States and based on their preference for liberal democracy. The influence of the tense situation in the Pacific region made the OSS, the KPG and KIA to recognize the need for their role in developing cooperation between the United States and Korea.

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KCI등재SSCI

1North Korea and Syria: Partners in Destruction and Violence

저자 : Bruce E Bechtol Jr.

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 277-292 (16 pages)

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North Korea and Syria have a long history of military cooperation. Most of this cooperation has been in the form of North Korean proliferation of weapons, training, assistance, and advisors. North Korea has assisted Syria in at least two forms of WMD-a chemical weapons program, and a plutonium nuclear weaponization program. While both of these programs have been largely destroyed, Syria will likely rebuild its chemical weapons program with North Korean assistance if not deterred by the international community. Conventional weapons are also an international security issue, as North Korea has proliferated a large number of weapons systems that have been used in the Syrian civil war by the Syrian army and Hezbollah fighters. North Korea has been a vital supporter of the Assad regime`s military throughout the Syrian civil war. Korean analysts should take note of how chemical weapons were used in the Syrian civil war because this is likely going to be a test-bed for future North Korean actions in a conflict with the South.

KCI등재SSCI

2When Economic Interdependence Meets Power Politics: Predicting the Direction of East Asian Regionalism in Asia`s Paradox

저자 : Jee Yong Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 293-312 (20 pages)

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Because of rapid economic growth and close economic interdependence, East Asia has recently been in the spotlight of regional integration theorists. Currently, East Asia is being remapped in two ways: one is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP); and the other is the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP). This article aims at predicting the winner of inter-institutional balancing between the two tracks from a viewpoint of power politics. To do so, realist hypotheses are made of regional integration and they are tested against the Integration Achievement Score (IAS) data. As a result, newly suggested hypotheses and some conventional ideas are strongly supported. These findings hold, regardless of model specifications and measurement of variables. Next, after analyzing how much the RCEP and the TPP accord with those findings, probabilities are presented showing that the two tracks can achieve regional economic integration. In conclusion, the TPP is expected to become the winner of inter-institutional balancing.

KCI등재SSCI

3The Rise of China and Power Transition Scenarios in East Asia

저자 : Woo Sang Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 313-329 (17 pages)

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Power transition theory seems to imply that war between the United States and the rising China is inevitable. However, in this article it is explained that a peaceful power transition is possible. While there is uncertainty for China to successfully catch up with the United States, the future regional power transition scenarios suggest that the United States should make an effort to maintain power preponderance over China. To do that, the United States has to expand its new alliance partnerships and to efficiently manage its existing regional alliance system through its “pivot to Asia” policy. In that sense, the U.S. efforts to encourage Japan to become a “normal” state to share a larger military burden and to introduce the missile defense system in the region, including the THAAD system, to the Korean Peninsula would be helpful for the United States. In addition, inducing China to be less dissatisfied with the status quo is crucial for regional stability. The United States should encourage its allies and friends in the region to increase their economic interdependence with China and to participate actively in the China-led regional economic institutions such as the AIIB. While maintaining power preponderance, inducing China to be less dissatisfied with the status quo is one answer that the power transition theory provides for the United States to peacefully manage the era of the rising China in the region.

KCI등재SSCI

4More Rebalancing to Come: Progress and Prospects of the U.S. Rebalance to the Asia-Pacific

저자 : In Han Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 331-346 (16 pages)

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For the past two years, the Asia-Pacific seems to have returned to the back seat in U.S. foreign policy priorities because of crises in Europe and the Middle East, and Washington`s own fiscal problems. Given both global and domestic developments, it is a legitimate question to ask whether the U.S. rebalance to the Asia-Pacific is still valid. This paper asserts, “Yes, it is.” Washington has made steady progress across military, diplomatic, and economic realms of the rebalancing. It has strengthened and expanded military ties with regional states and prepared for its naval forces to operate more intensively. It has become a member of major multilateral institutions and expanded support for appropriate organizations. And it is striving to complete the most important trade deal in a generation, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Despite budget pressures, the Obama administration has kept the Asia-Pacific high on its foreign policy agenda, and the rebalance has enjoyed bipartisan support. While the high-profile rebalancing moves have been relatively modest so far, the Obama administration`s achievements should not be understated. More balancing effort is certain to come.

KCI등재SSCI

5An Analysis and Lessons on South Korea`s Attempt and Postponement of the OPCON Transition from the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command

저자 : Hwee Rhak Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 347-363 (17 pages)

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This paper examines the relevance of logics for transferring Operational Control authority (OPCON) from the CFC (ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command) and draws several lessons for South Korea in order not to repeat the same mistakes. For this purpose, it explains the background of OPCON and compares the logics with the reality unfolded so far. The political leaders in the Roh administration pursued transition of OPCON in the name of sovereignty in 2003. However, OPCON authority is nothing but a tool to ensure the unity of command in military operations and it is not regarded as an infringement on sovereignty. The Roh administration promised to strengthen South Korean forces to lead the defense of South Korea through comprehensive defense reform efforts, but failed to accomplish them. Though they expected threats from North Korea would diminish gradually to be favorable to the transition, North Korea appears to have succeeded in developing several nuclear weapons. As a lesson, South Korea should understand that most countries in the world do not consider the delegation of OPCON as an infringement of national sovereignty. South Korea should focus on defense preparedness against the North Korean nuclear threat by making the CFC the key player for the combined nuclear deterrence. In the long run, South Korea should speed up its defense reform efforts in order to take a leading role in the combined defense posture with the U.S. forces and try to reflect people`s yearning for self-reliance. At the same time, the ROK and the United States should try to adopt measures that could ease South Korean people`s demand for self-reliance within the current CFC structure.

KCI등재SSCI

6The Vietnam War, Korea`s Opportunity for More Reliable Security Assurances

저자 : Kwan Pyo Bae

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 365-382 (18 pages)

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Most studies on the decision by the Republic of Korea (ROK) to send troops into combat in the Vietnam War share an assumption that the ROK did not actually want to dispatch them. However, some historical sources show that since the armistice agreement of the Korean War the ROK had tried to send troops to defeat the communists, and it was rather the United States that had dissuaded the ROK from doing so-until the United States was faced with unexpected difficulty in the ground warfare in 1965. By reviewing existing data and unearthing new documents, this paper clarifies why the ROK had tried to send the combat troops for a long period of time. According to research findings, it was not just to obtain more military and economic compensation from the United States. It was rather to gain more reliable security assurances for the ROK`s own survival. At the time, the ROK was dissatisfied with the deficient bilateral alliance with the United States and had pursued institutionalization of a new regional collective security regime to replace SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization). The ROK expected the dispatch to create an opportunity to initiate such a regime. These attempts could be seen as commendable. However, the attempts ended in failure, even though the ROK actually dispatched them, because the attempts required a change of the firmly established San Francisco System.

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7The Russian Hybrid War in the Ukraine Crisis: Some Characteristics and Implications

저자 : Pyung Kyun Woo

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 383-400 (18 pages)

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This paper examines some characteristics of the Russian hybrid war in the Ukraine crisis since 2014, and then explores its implications. The hybrid approach is designed to generate “plausible deniability,” allowing Putin maximal tactical flexibility while avoiding responsibility. Russia`s hybrid warfare can be traced with some devices: propaganda (including cyber attack), tactics, the militants, and weapons. The meaning of the Russian hybrid war in Ukraine is focused on the three points. Firstly, Russia`s new approach, “hybrid war” cannot be considered independent of a long professional experience of Putin`s KGB operations before becoming a politician. Secondly, hybrid type warfare in Ukraine is not the first time for Russia. Putin previously applied his new kind of war almost unnoticed to the small and remote Georgia and Transnistria, but it cannot go without being understood when applied on a scale as large and visible as Ukraine. Thirdly, Russia`s actions in Ukraine have exploded the notion that expansive communications technologies and economic interdependence were fostering a kind of grand bargain. The Ukraine crisis suggests that world history after the Cold War is at an inflection point. In a world of hybrid warfare or non-linear conflict, we need to find new forms of deterrence.

KCI등재SSCI

8The South Korean-U.S. Nuclear Alliance: Steadfast and Changing

저자 : Richard Weitz

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 401-415 (15 pages)

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Nuclear-related issues remain at the core of the Seoul-Washington partnership. These include shared nuclear weapons threats to both partners from North Korea, tussles between South Koreans and Americans regarding how to deter and defeat these North Korean threats without antagonizing the other regional nuclear powers, and managing the transformation of the Republic of Korea (ROK) into a major civilian nuclear energy producer and exporter. Whatever the changes in the Northeast Asian security environment, the enduring goals of the South Korean-U.S. defense alliance remain unchanged-to deter North Korean aggression, maintain South Koreans` security and welfare, contribute to regional and global stability, and work toward Korean reunification. But the shifting nature of the regional security environment has required difficult adjustments by both partners to sustain a robust and effective partnership.

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