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Journal of Real Estate Analysis

  • : 한국부동산원
  • : 사회과학분야  >  경제학
  • : KCI후보
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  • : 연속간행물
  • : 연3회
  • : 2415-9754
  • : 2508-1292
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수록정보
수록범위 : 1권1호(2015)~7권1호(2021) |수록논문 수 : 91
부동산 분석
7권1호(2021년 04월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
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KCI후보

1랜덤 포레스트 알고리즘을 통한 주택 대량평가모형 연구

저자 : 홍정의 ( Jengei Hong )

발행기관 : 한국부동산원 간행물 : 부동산 분석 7권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 1-28 (28 pages)

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This paper discusses how to apply the random forest algorithm in building a mass appraisal system for residential property and analyzes issues related to modelling process. The paper investigates the relationship between the random forest model and the complexities of housing market. Based on the findings, various qualitative analyses has been attempted for effective model design. The findings are summarized as followed;-. First, the random forest model is performative in capturing the non-linearity from sub-market and locational effects. The random forest model has significantly low average percentage error (approx. 4%) compared to with a linear Hedonic model (approx. 11%). Second, the random forest model can efficiently capture the locational effects only with locational information (coordinates), without proxy variables. Third, using dummy variables may reduce explanatory power of the model, compared to label indexes because the number of variables included in an operation increases. Fourth, the advantage from model complexity seems overwhelm the disadvantage from overfitting. Fifth, modellers are not required to ensure consistency in the time periods contained in a dataset.

KCI후보

2기계학습 기반 주택시장의 조기경보체계

저자 : 박대현 ( Daehyeon Park ) , 김정환 ( Jeonghwan Kim ) , 류두진 ( Doojin Ryu )

발행기관 : 한국부동산원 간행물 : 부동산 분석 7권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 29-45 (17 pages)

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This study proposes an early warning system for risks of the housing market based on machine learning models. We adopt a signal approach to detect the housing market risk and establish the early warning system using classification methods. Considering the moment when the housing market falls into recession as a warning signal, we set the signal as the price which is more than the sum of the average and standard deviation of upcoming prices. The detected signals are consistent with empirical observations in the Korean housing market. We select the best performing function among classification models for machine learning which predicts a warning signal. As a result of an intercomparison of models including the logistic regression, the support vector machine, the random forest and the artificial neural network with the use of inputs such as housing price indices, macroeconomic variables and other housing market variables, we find that the random forest demonstrates the highest prediction performance. Our early warning system yields policy implications in terms of relevant detection of price fluctuations in the housing market.

KCI후보

3스폰서 소유권이 리츠의 시장 위험과 유동성 위험에 미치는 영향

저자 : 한광호 ( Gwang Ho Han ) , 노승한 ( Seung Han Ro )

발행기관 : 한국부동산원 간행물 : 부동산 분석 7권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 47-68 (22 pages)

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This paper investigates effects of sponsor ownership on the Market Risk (Systematic risk) and the Liquidity Risk using Asian real estate investment trust (REIT) data. Previous literature warns that the sponsored REIT structure may cause the agency problem, and insists that the sponsor ownership management relieves the agency problem. However, our empirical findings show that there is an inverse-U relationship between the sponsor ownership and the two risks (the market risk and the liquidity risk), which indicates that from the risk management perspective, the sponsor ownership management has no effect. This finding can be explained by the fee business model. The sponsor has a motivation for the asset secularization, and an external manager who makes an option contract of performance, acquisition, and divestment fee with REIT has a motivation for the aggressive management style. In particular, the sponsor has the position of both parties in property transactions. In consequence, Asian REITs take a risk of excessive related party transactions. The findings of this study suggest that the REITs' governance and regulations need to be improved for monitoring of the related party transaction (RPT) and the fee contract, in relation to control structure and in a systematical level.

KCI후보

4부동산 시효취득시 취득세 산정 기산일 고찰

저자 : 전병욱 ( Byung Wook Jun )

발행기관 : 한국부동산원 간행물 : 부동산 분석 7권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 69-88 (20 pages)

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As the local tax laws don't prescribe the date of acquisition for real property obtained through occupancy acquisition, relevant judgements of the Supreme Court, decisions of the Tax Tribunal and rulings of the tax authorities are all different from each other, which causes the uncertainty in tax practices and possible problems of the loss of tax revenues. In order to improve taxpayers' right and the clarity of the interpretation of tax laws, this study comprehensively investigates the issue of effective taxation period of acquisition tax for occupancy acquisition, and suggests that the taxation period should accrue on the date when occupancy acquisition completes although some court cases ruled that it accrued on either the date when court's judgement is finally decided or the date when ownership transfer is registered. Regarding the period of exclusion, to cope with the latent problem that the tax authorities are unable to impose acquisition tax, considering the difficulty in recognizing the completion of occupancy acquisition, it should be remedied by legislating on “special” effective taxation period and reporting period of acquisition tax for occupancy acquisition.

KCI후보

5북한 혜산시 부동산 가격실태와 가격결정의 함의

저자 : 김병욱 ( Byeong Uk Kim )

발행기관 : 한국부동산원 간행물 : 부동산 분석 7권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 89-109 (21 pages)

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This study aims to provide general and regional information that have effects on the price and price determination of four real estate products (houses, factories, stores, and convenience facilities) located in three downtown areas (commercial business center, administrative center and industrial district) in Hyesan in North Korea. Based on general, regional and product factors, characteristics and prospects of change in real estate pricing for each downtown are presented. For effects of general factors on the determination of real estate price, the main factor of commercial business center and administrative center are the level of resident consumption and infrastructure, respectively. In terms of regional factors, industrial districts take precedence. For product factors, commercia areas take precedence in the supply and demand of factory buildings or retail buildings. If sanctions against North Korea persist, the influence of general factors on real estate prices in the downtown of Hyesan will be weakened by the deteriorating economic situation and negligence on urban reorganization. However, the influence of regional and commodity factors would not be reduced due to the strategic interests of North Korea and China and the geo-economic characteristics. Therefore, it is unlikely that real estate prices in the entire downtown area of Hyesan will significantly decrease, compared to other areas in North Korea.

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