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수록정보
수록범위 : 2013권0호(2013) |수록논문 수 : 11
IPA 30주년기념 국제학술대회 자료집
2013권0호(2013년 10월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
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1발표문 : 통일한국의 비전과 대외정책 방향: 통일한국의 국제정치적 자리매기기

저자 : 김태현 ( Tae Hyun Kim )

발행기관 : 평화문제연구소 간행물 : IPA 30주년기념 국제학술대회 자료집 2013권 0호 발행 연도 : 2013 페이지 : pp. 13-26 (14 pages)

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What shall and should be the vision of a unified Korea in its foreign relations? Is it attactive enough to mobilize domestic political supports for supposedly painful transition? Is it reassuring enough to mobilize international support, both passive and active, for supposedly radical transformation of the regional status quo? Thus, envisioning the future model of a unified Korea is like solving a system of two simultaneous equations, domestic and international. This essay envisions it as a pivotal status in East Asian community, as often envisioned among South Korean policy community. Yet, it admits that the vision of a pivotal state in East Asian community, albeit fancy, is still empty. For the vision of an East Asian Community is still vague and the path to it is not clear. South Korean government and people would be required to foster a diplomatic posture of "principled, disciplined, and imposing" foreign policy to build an image of a state playing a positive role, during and after the vision of East Asian community is visualized and materialized. The biggest obstacle to such a vision, it is worried, would be the "populist" tendency in the political circle, in both South Korea and other countries in the region, driven by short-term political gains. A more active and positive role by the supposedly long-sighted academia is called for.

2토론문 : "통일한국의 비전과 대외정책 방향: 통일한국의 국제정치적 자리매기기" 에 대한 토론

저자 : 마상윤 ( Sang Yoon Ma )

발행기관 : 평화문제연구소 간행물 : IPA 30주년기념 국제학술대회 자료집 2013권 0호 발행 연도 : 2013 페이지 : pp. 29-33 (5 pages)

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Professor Kim``s paper is somewhat different from an ordinary approach to the subject of diplomatic strategy to achieve Korean national unification. Instead of taking such an ordinary approach which focuses on foreign policy in a narrow sense, Kim is concerned with the broader question of statecraft. Thus, he talked about economic and sociocultural issues of unification as well as diplomacy and security policy. Such a broadened perspective is important given that unification will be an extremely complex chemical process. That said, the paper``s relative neglect of traditional issues of diplomacy and security policy is somehow painful. Professor Kim suggested some interesting ideas with regard to diplomacy and security policy toward unification. They include (1) disarmament in the Korean peninsula, (2) adjustment of ROK-U.S. alliance, (3) the formation of a loose network of America``s Asia-Pacific alliances such as ROK-U.S., U.S.-Japan and ANZUS, and (4) the establishment of OSCE-like institution for multilateral security cooperation with China and Russia. Yet, these ideas leave a crucial question unanswered: how to achieve them? Also it would have been better if the paper has paid attention to two possibilities as related to unification. First, the possibility that unification would come overnight with the collapse of North Korean regime. Second, alternative ways to overcome the nationla division other than unification.

3토론문 : 통일한국의 비전과 대외정책 방향

저자 : 이헌경 ( Hun Kyung Lee )

발행기관 : 평화문제연구소 간행물 : IPA 30주년기념 국제학술대회 자료집 2013권 0호 발행 연도 : 2013 페이지 : pp. 37-41 (5 pages)

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In the Cold War era, according to Professor John Lewis Gaddis, ``long peace`` which means ``status of absence of war`` had been maintained. Although peace on the Korean peninsula has been maintained for 60 years since the armistice, it has not been a real peace. It is not easy to achieve North and South Korean unification at all. But it would be remarkable catching a star when a dark cloud formation disappeared suddenly like the German unification case. It is necessary to intensify both soft power and hard power so as to achieve unification. Building up the hard power is important to a divided country that confrontation and conflict would be continued, and penetration of the soft power like the Korean wave into North Korea may play a role to some extent to open the door of the partition of the Korean peninsula. Appearance of a unified Korea is to break down a status quo. Although Korea unified, the ROK and USA alliance will be maintained, and multilateral security cooperation like the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe will be formed in East Asia (or Northeast Asia). However, binding together of the ROK-USA alliance will be weaken compared to before advent of a unified Korea, and the Korea and China relations is anticipated to advance more than before. Potential power and national power with 80 million people in a unified Korea may boost its status in the international community, and the Korean peninsula may play a mediator or pivotal role. Considering these, it is, above all, necessary to analyze the surrounding powers`` policies as concerns a unified Korea, and to suggest the latter``s corresponding preparations no diplomacy and security

4발표문 : 통일한국의 등장과 동북아 지역질서 변화 전망: 동북아 세력망 구도의 변화를 중심으로

저자 : 신범식 ( Beom Shik Shin )

발행기관 : 평화문제연구소 간행물 : IPA 30주년기념 국제학술대회 자료집 2013권 0호 발행 연도 : 2013 페이지 : pp. 45-58 (14 pages)

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Northeast Asia is a region where the structural legacy of confrontation from the Cold War era remains the strongest. Simultaneously, it is a region where the future of the newly forming world order can be observed. This paper analyzes the changes in the network of powers in Northeast Asia by using the concepts of ``social capital`` and ``structural hole`` from the social network theory as centerpieces of research. Specifically, this research selected ``the mode of interaction between US and China,`` and ``the method of reunification of the Korean Peninsula`` as two main regional political variables to forecast the changes in Northeast Asian regional order, as well as their impact on political processes in the region through a few scenarios combining the two variables. In doing so, this paper derived policy implications for the Korean governmen

5토론문 : 통일한국과 다층적 다자주의 외교의 가능성

저자 : 이종원 ( Jong Won Lee )

발행기관 : 평화문제연구소 간행물 : IPA 30주년기념 국제학술대회 자료집 2013권 0호 발행 연도 : 2013 페이지 : pp. 61-65 (5 pages)

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Prof. Shin``s paper is a comprehensive, informative, and insightful analysis of the international political structure of the Korean peninsula, from the perspective of ROK``s diplomatic strategy towards reunification. It defines ROK as a middle-power, and argues for its active role as a ``network power`` in Northeast Asia. According to its analysis, ROK is in a good position in leading the process of network-building in the region, with being already involved, officially and potentially, in a series of tripartite frameworks, which are defined as ``social capitals`` for building a regional community. Regarding the discussion on the network theory and middle-power diplomacy, I would like to raise a few points. First, theoretically, more clarification is needed in applying the concept of ``social capitals`` to a variety of tripartite relations in the region of Northeast Asia. It seems that the examples mentioned in the paper still retain the aspect of ``structural holes`` rather than the components for an integrated network. Second, contrary to the paper``s argument, it is dubious that the inter-Korean link has greater prospect than Pyongyang``s two other ``missing links`` with the U.S. and Japan. Third, the paper``s discussion of the multi-faceted tripartite frameworks in the region is concentrated on ROK``s diplomacy, while paying little attention to the mutually competing other possibilities. Lastly, the means with which ROK could assume the role of network power in the regional diplomacy are not sufficiently explained.

6토론문 : 한반도의 평화통일과 동북아시아 정치질서

저자 : 김경일 ( Jing Yi Jin )

발행기관 : 평화문제연구소 간행물 : IPA 30주년기념 국제학술대회 자료집 2013권 0호 발행 연도 : 2013 페이지 : pp. 69-73 (5 pages)

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Since the modern era, the upheavals in East Asia have always been centered around Korean Peninsula. All of the Sino-Japanese War(1894), the Russo-Japanese War(1904) and the Korean War(1950) broke out in or around the Korean Peninsula and it caused profound impact on the international order in East Asia. Korea is now facing a turning point which can cause another upheaval in East Asia - the reunification of the Korean Peninsula. In the historical point of view, it might be the most crucial change that can establish a new international order in East Asia. In the past, the Korean Peninsula was considered as a geo-political strategic point where the continental and maritime powers had clashed. However, if the reunification takes place, Korea can become an important geo-economic mediator between the continental and maritime economic blocs. Most of the changes and disruptions in East Asia has occurred through wars since the modern era. The new international order in East Asia must be approached in a peaceful way. The precondition is, of course, the peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula.

7토론문 : 미국의 통일 한국에 대한 이익과 전망

저자 : 피터벡 ( Peter M. Beck )

발행기관 : 평화문제연구소 간행물 : IPA 30주년기념 국제학술대회 자료집 2013권 0호 발행 연도 : 2013 페이지 : pp. 77-78 (2 pages)

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미국에 있는 한국연구가는 두 한국이 통일할 시기에 관한 한 의견에 차이가 있지만, 통일이 되면 미국에 득이 된다는 의견에는 거의 모두가 동의한다. 문제는 비용을 최소화하고 평화적인 방법으로 통일을 이루도록 하는 것이다. 미국과 남한은 긴밀히 협력해 폭넓게 통일 시나리오를 준비해왔지만, 통일 비용이 1조 달러를 초과할 것이라는 사실을 고려할 때, 더 많은 준비가 필요하다. 북한의 불량한 행태에 맞서면서 동시에 효과적인 참여 방안을 찾는 것이 통일을 가능케 하는 최선의 전략이다. 우리는 한층 더 노력해 북한의 지도자에게 대립과 고립보다는 협력에서 얻는 것이 더 많다는 것을 납득시켜야 한다


America``s Korea watchers differ when it comes to when the two Koreas will reunify, but almost all agree that when it happens, America will benefit. The challenge is to minimize the cost and make sure that it occurs in a peaceful manner. Washington and Seoul have coordinated closely to prepare for the full range of unification scenarios, but more needs to be done given that the cost of unification will exceed $1 trillion. Confronting North Korea``s bad behavior while at the same time seeking effective avenues of engagement remain the best strategy for facilitating unification. We must redouble our efforts to convince the North``s leaders that they have far more to gain from cooperation rather than confrontation and isolation.

8토론문 : 한반도 통일을 위한 외교전략 및 중국의 기대이익

저자 : 청샤오허 ( Xiaohe Cheng )

발행기관 : 평화문제연구소 간행물 : IPA 30주년기념 국제학술대회 자료집 2013권 0호 발행 연도 : 2013 페이지 : pp. 81-112 (32 pages)

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The Korean Unification is a long-pursued dream of all the Koreans, but how to achieve the unification is a bone of contention. Among all the actors involving in the Korean unification process, the DPRK and the ROK play a defining role. Their unification rsattegies deserve special attention. The paper evaluates historical experiences and lessons derived from the Korean War, Geneva Conference and inter-Korean interactions, and generalize a number of observations, including: (1) Kim Il Sung``s military unification campaign was too costly to repeat; (2) without mutual trust and sincerity, any unification talks would go nowhere; (3) even though inter-Korean unification talks have not made a substantial progress, they have laid down a basic framework for future negotiations. The experiences and lessons serve as a guide for the two Koreas to find a path of unification. The Vietnam Military Model that the DPRK may resort to is not a practical choice anymore; the Germany Model contains certain elements that inspire the ROK to seek the unification on its own terms but the financial burden and the absence of historical opportunity will pose a challenge a significant challenge for the Korean unification; Although the Yemen Model also has a valuable frame of reference for the Korean unification, but its ill unification preparation and the post-unification concussion sound the alarm for the Koreans; the Chinese Model, which is in its own process of experiment, could not be copied on the Korean Peninsula as asymmetry of power between mainland China and Taiwan is so huge, but mainland China``s confidence, strategic patience and painstaking implementation of unification policies can inform and stimulate the Korean strategists. Any unification strategies should be determined by a number of factors, power capacity, people``s will, proper and consistent policies, historical chance and strong leadership. As the Koreans formulate their unification strategies, it is important to assess all the factors. For China, Korea``s biggest immediate neighbor, it has keen interest in when and how the unification on the Korean Peninsula will take place. The Chinese are debating if China should support the Korean unification, all the analyses seeming suggest that a unified Korean Peninsula may best serve China``s national interest.

9토론문 : 일본의 통일한국에 대한 기대이익과 협력방향

저자 : 히로시나카니시 ( Hiroshi Nakanishi )

발행기관 : 평화문제연구소 간행물 : IPA 30주년기념 국제학술대회 자료집 2013권 0호 발행 연도 : 2013 페이지 : pp. 116-131 (16 pages)

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During the Cold War era, Japan``s policy towards the Korean Peninsula aimed to uphold South Korea under the US security umbrella rather than the Korean unification. When the Cold War ended, there was a chance for Japan to pursue both deeper engagement with South Korea as well as normalizing its relations with the North. This policy shift bore fruit in 1998 as the Japan-South Korea joint declaration between Prime Minister Obuchi and President Kim Dae-jung. However, the bilateral relationship with North Korea aggravated around that year, because of the ballistic missile launch and the heightened public interest in the abduction issue. Japan-South Korea relationship also stagnated because of frictions on historical and territorial issues. Japan``s direct influence on the Korean peninsula has been much diminished for the last twenty years, and now Japan``s influence is more indirectly used through the US and possibly China and Russia. Still, the Korean unification provides much benefits to Japan if it occurs peacefully. It will eliminate Japan``s foremost security threat and may solve the entangled abduction issue once and for all. The unification may strengthen the general security including maritime affairs. Moreover the unification will provide favorable environment to enhance the Japanese-Korean mutual exchange at th esocietal level.

10토론문 : 러시아의 통일한국에 대한 기대이익과 협력방향

저자 : 바실리미헤예프 ( Vasily Mikheev )

발행기관 : 평화문제연구소 간행물 : IPA 30주년기념 국제학술대회 자료집 2013권 0호 발행 연도 : 2013 페이지 : pp. 133-150 (18 pages)

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