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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis

Korean journal of defense analysis update

  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : 사회과학분야  >  정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • : 1941-4641
  • :

수록정보
수록범위 : 1권1호(1989)~34권2호(2022) |수록논문 수 : 891
Korean journal of defense analysis
34권2호(2022년 06월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
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KCI등재 SSCI

1Kim Jong Un's Policy Direction or “Line”: Heading for Radicalization?

저자 : Won Gon Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 161-182 (22 pages)

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Since Kim Jong Un gained power, he introduced several policy directions, or “lines.” There are different interpretations of the nature of the lines, especially in light of Max Weber's “routinization of leadership.” Unlike Kim Jong Il, some studies argue that Kim Jong Un has tried to routinize this authority to transcend charismatic leadership. Especially, his introduction of the “new strategic line of everything for the economy” in April 2018 is an ultimate example of his attempt to routinize leadership. However, this article challenges the argument in three ways. First, the interpretation of Kim Jong Un's lines, including the “economy first” strategic line proposed in April 2018, is not enough to represent the efforts to the routinization of authority. Second, after the breakup of the Hanoi summits in 2019, North Korea has moved to radicalize its policy. Finally, North Korea could choose not to routinize its authority in a more fundamental sense. By analyzing the critical events such as the Third Plenary Meeting of the Seventh Central Committee on April 20, 2018, the Fifth Plenary Meeting of the Seventh Central Committee in December 2019, and the Eighth Party Congress in January 2021, the paper has demonstrated that Kim Jong Un has continued to implement, and even strengthen some radical policies.

KCI등재 SSCI

2Bargaining and BATNAs: Why Did Moon Jae-in's Unprecedented Détente Effort Nonetheless Fail to Change the Inter-Korean Stalemate?

저자 : Robert E. Kelly

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 183-205 (23 pages)

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South Korean President Moon Jae-In pushed harder for a transformational inter-Korean détente than any of his predecessors. That his tremendous effort still failed demands explanation. This paper suggests four interlocking reasons, derived from bargaining theory applications in foreign policy analysis: 1) The North Korean Kim Jong Un regime, secure behind its nuclear weapons and domestic repression, preferred its status quo BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) to the capacious American demand for complete, verifiable, irreversible disarmament. Pyongyang can afford to wait for the Americans to offer better terms. 2) South Korean centrist and conservative 'veto-players,' trading on the high popularity of the U.S. alliance in South Korea, blocked Moon from pursuing a Korea--only negotiating track after U.S.-North Korea negotiations stagnated--including a 'future veto' threat to roll back Moon's détente when conservatives next won the South Korean presidency. 3) U.S. domestic players, of unique importance in South Korea because of the tight alliance, also resisted. Moon and U.S. President Donald Trump were unable to win over the deeply skeptical U.S. foreign policy community. 4) Cognitively, Trump himself undercut Moon's effort as much he helped it. Trump's impatience, disinterest in detail, and general disorganization crippled him as a reliable negotiating counterparty for Moon (and Kim). This paper concludes with a narrative of these causes dynamically interacting to illustrate the collapse of Moon's initiative.

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This article examines the potential risks and benefits for South Korea of entering into a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Memorandum of Understanding (RDP MOU) with the United States. The purpose of an RDP MOU is to promote rationalization, standardization, and interoperability of defense equipment with foreign allies. To achieve this purpose, an RDP MOU calls for a mutual commitment not to discriminate in the area of defense procurement (supplies, services, and R&D), primarily by waiving “buy national” laws that make it difficult for one party to participate in the defense procurement market of the other. First, as a background, the article examines the international agreements under which the two countries have made certain commitments to open their procurement markets. Second, the article examines the U.S. domestic preference laws (“Buy American” laws), which serve as institutional barriers to defense trade. Third, the overall purpose and functions of RDP MOUs are studied, including whether and to what extent they have benefited other U.S. allies. Lastly, the article examines how South Korea should weigh the risks and benefits of entering into an RDP MOU. While arguing that the defense MOU would greatly strengthen the ROK-U.S. alliance, the article nevertheless concludes that South Korea should conduct a proper prefeasibility study, including a cost-benefit analysis for each covered defense- related procurement, before opening up its defense industry.

KCI등재 SSCI

4Background, Rationale, and Nature of Biden Administration's Strategic Ambiguity towards Taiwan

저자 : Shih-kai Lin , Hung-chang Chung

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 231-248 (18 pages)

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The Biden administration has in general been operating both “strategic ambiguity” and “strategic clarity,” prompting the question: Is the United States being strategically ambiguous or strategically clear towards Taiwan? This paper believes the discussion should start with the clarification of “U.S. policy regarding Taiwan.” However, U.S. policy towards Taiwan involves the highly sensitive One-China policy. Thus, the United States will evaluate its “core interest” in relation to China when dealing with the One-China policy, as mishandling it may trigger a war between the United States and China or the rest of the world. This is the reason why the United States must devise its Taiwan policy at a macro-level and cautious manner.

KCI등재 SSCI

5The Fourth Industrial Revolution and China's Defense Innovation in Intelligent Systems

저자 : Youngjune Chung , Shuting Dai

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 249-273 (25 pages)

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In the new era of the U.S.-China strategic rivalry, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) is attempting to transform itself into a world class defense unit by constructing a self-organizing system of defense innovation. Translating its global lead in digitization and economic achievements into military power will entail the integration of critical and emerging technology into its existing weapon clusters and processes, the fielding of new and modified equipment, and the reinforcement of industrial applications such as robotics and autonomous vehicles. Building on developments in the PLA's reform and modernization, this study conducts a systemic examination of China's intelligentization strategy to prevail in the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR). Hard and soft inputs that shape China's ecosystem of defense-innovation, including material, financial, and technological inputs, process factors of plans, strategies, and acquisition, and institutional factors have been examined.

KCI등재 SSCI

6A Janus-Faced Security Landscape: An Analysis of the East Asian Security Environment

저자 : Nam Kyu Kim , Jaebeom Kwon

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 275-299 (25 pages)

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East Asia has become more salient on the international stage, economically and strategically. Considering its significance, many scholars have paid attention to the regional security environment. They consider East Asia a peaceful region because there has been no inter-state war, and attempt to explore factors preventing wars in East Asia. We believe that the focus on the absence of war would not only fail to provide a whole picture of the current East Asian security condition but also give a false impression that this region is stable and secure. Accordingly, we attempt to provide a detailed descriptive look at the current security environment of East Asia by focusing on various aspects of the security environment. We show that East Asia suffers from intense tensions, while it has avoided serious interstate conflict. By drawing on various perspectives, we attempt to explain the seemingly contradictory phenomenon in this region, a co-existence of intense hostility and negative peace. The U.S.-China competition, territorial disputes, and the ineffectiveness of regional institutions have intensified intra-regional tension, undermining potentials for developing security cooperation. Nevertheless, the security role of the United States and a high level of intra-regional economic integration have prevented the occurrence of serious militarized conflict.

KCI등재 SSCI

7The Spatial Diffusion of Suicide Attacks

저자 : Kiyoung Chang , William Reed

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 301-318 (18 pages)

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This paper studies the diffusion of suicide bombings as a tactic employed by terrorist groups from 1981 to 2008. The empirical strategy is motivated by the literature on the diffusion of innovation. Specifically, this paper builds on the literature on the diffusion of policies across states to develop hypotheses about the spread of suicide attacks across space and over time. We use data from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) to evaluate hypotheses about the diffusion of suicide bombings. The results suggest a consistent and robust relationship between geography and the diffusion of suicide bombings. Successful suicide attacks appear to diffuse across borders and to increase over time.

KCI등재 SSCI

8The Diplomatic and Military Relations between Korean Provisional Government and the United States: Mutual Perception of the Eagle Project

저자 : Cha Hyeonji , Kim Doo-jin

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 34권 2호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 319-338 (20 pages)

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This paper aims to examine the Eagle Project by analyzing the phase of forging mutual trust between the Korean Provisional Government (hereafter the KPG)'s army, the Korean Independence Army (韓國光復軍, KIA) and the Office of Strategic Services related to the project. Furthermore, this paper concludes that the Eagle Project was neither a trivial preparation nor an unfortunate process on both sides of the Korean and American memories. However, the plan involves what factors would contribute to the formation and transformation of the alliance. During the Pacific War, it was demonstrated that the relationship between the Kuomintang government and the KPG became a major factor in the KPG & KIA's readiness to cooperate with the United States. To them, building rapport with the United States was connected to enhancing their military autonomy. This conviction was largely based on the KPG & KIA's great confidence in the United States and based on their preference for liberal democracy. The influence of the tense situation in the Pacific region made the OSS, the KPG and KIA to recognize the need for their role in developing cooperation between the United States and Korea.

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