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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis

Korean journal of defense analysis update

  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : 사회과학분야  >  정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
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수록정보
수록범위 : 1권1호(1989)~33권2호(2021) |수록논문 수 : 859
Korean journal of defense analysis
33권2호(2021년 06월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
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KCI등재 SSCI

1Korean Defense Reform 2.0 after COVID-19: A Budget Perspective

저자 : Kyoung-gon Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 2호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 185-202 (18 pages)

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This paper investigates how COVID-19 affects Defense Reform (DR) 2.0 in South Korea from a budget perspective. The Korean defense reform, which was launched in 2006, has rarely met its annual budget requirements. Following Korea's budget decision-making process, this paper examines the reasons for the defense budget shortfall. A vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis with annual Korean data shows that both the national debt and government budget significantly influence the defense budget. This result implies that a stable DR 2.0 stance can be maintained by an expansive fiscal policy against COVID-19 in the short term. However, COVID-19 would lead to a lower defense budget due to increasing national debt in the midterm, which limits implementation of DR 2.0. This paper's findings can help policymakers design new strategies for securing the defense budget after the pandemic.

KCI등재 SSCI

2New Weapons Systems and Peculiar Features of North Korean Nuclear Doctrine

저자 : Anastasia Barannikova

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 2호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 203-222 (20 pages)

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Despite the fact that the DPRK has not yet resumed nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests, it is obvious that the country has not given up its nuclear ambitions. On the contrary, North Korea demonstrates its intent to further boost its nuclear capabilities. It is evidenced by the multiple tests and demonstrations of new and previously tested weapons systems since last year, a series of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) Central Military Commission meetings presided by Kim Jong Un and finally, by the recent military parade. New strategic capabilities demonstrated during the parade cannot be considered proven until they are tested. However, given North Korea's rapid progress in previous years and strong incentive to develop its nuclear forces, a resumption of tests is only a matter of time. This progress in the nuclear and missile realm would be impossible without proper strategic planning and a clear vision of the role of nuclear weapons. The present article analyzes some of the peculiar features and new trends of North Korean nuclear doctrine and strategy.

KCI등재 SSCI

3Rethinking Nuclear War: Bringing “Limited Nuclear Use” to Center Stage

저자 : Inseok Yoo

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 2호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 223-245 (23 pages)

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The recent resurgence of the nuclear competition of the superpowers, growing capabilities of emerging nuclear states, and the blurring of conventional-nuclear firebreak have all contributed to increasing the possibility of nuclear weapons use in conflict. To address this issue, many scholars have attempted to reinterpret the Cold War logic of “limited nuclear war” and apply it to the context of the 21st century nuclear environment. While standing on the same line with this approach, this article presents fundamentally different discussions about “limited nuclear war (LNW)” and “limited nuclear use (LNU).” It points out that the concept of LNW can no longer fully capture the changing nature of nuclear war, especially the “gray zone” between conventional and nuclear war. Furthermore, the conceptual elusiveness of LNW has hindered the development of a coherent strategy. This article argues that the concept of LNU is a better alternative to address the changing nuclear landscape beyond the scope of the LNW and could be a useful tool for strategy-making. It assumes that the state, as a rational actor, will seek palatable nuclear options to achieve desired objectives while avoiding escalation to a catastrophic nuclear war. By reviewing LNU from a historical perspective and reconsidering LNW, this article ultimately aims to present the conceptual foundation for strategy-making with a more rigorous definition of LNU.

KCI등재 SSCI

4The Reconfigured Ideology and Threats to National Security: Observations from Xi Jinping's Regime

저자 : Chang-ching Tu

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 2호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 247-272 (26 pages)

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Chinese politics is qualified often in reference to terms such as “exceptionalism” and “personalization.” The brunt of political authority lies in leadership and hierarchical relations. This study finds that since his inauguration in 2012, Xi Jinping has clearly emphasized his steadfast commitment to the path of socialism and the political system of the CCP while continuing to make revisions to core concepts of the socialist order and sparing no efforts to strengthen the ideological status of the supreme leader. The theoretical framework for “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” is now complete. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping continues to be highly cautious of Western powers and all manners of domestic security threats. Politically, he vigorously pursues de-Westernization and endeavors to strengthen his grip on ideology with the aim of reigning in the influence of universal values, which are perceived as a threat to the CCP rule. In doing so, he hopes to protect the political consensus within the party and the nation as a whole. However, facing the post-pandemic era, the coronavirus-hit economy slows may have aggravated unrest and turmoil in Chinese society. Facing this unprecedented crisis, the CCP will continue to hold a tighter grip on ideology and political security, strengthening its publicity in the public sphere to reduce the risk of political chaos.

KCI등재 SSCI

5China's Effectiveness on International Trade of North Korea with Gravity Theory

저자 : Yong Ki Jung , Chun-su Lee

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 2호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 273-295 (23 pages)

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Purpose: Despite sanctions and negotiations against North Korea within the international community, research on the effectiveness and effects by the international community on North Korea's nuclear dismantlement are ongoing. Such UN and US sanctions are likely to increase or decrease, especially in geographically-adjacent China. The purpose of this study is to verify the effectiveness of China on international sanctions against North Korea, caused by the changes in bilateral trade patterns. In addition, this study will examine the effects on strategic materials.
Design/Methodology: In this study, the gravity theory, which is recognized as an effective model for explaining the flow of international trade, was used to estimate the impact of international sanctions on North Korea. The gravity theory is highly regarded as the most efficient model for explaining trade patterns between the two countries, such as geographical conditions and the role of national economic integration under the WTO regime. In addition to the basic variables of gravity, GDP and distance variables between countries, the effectiveness of the international community's sanctions by the UN and the International Export Control System were analyzed separately.
Findings: The result of the analysis shows that only the distance variable has a negative effect on the export amount and the GDP variable has no correlation, showing us that the gravity theory can be applied on a very limited scale. In other words, we could see that the trading pattern of North Korea was explained with the gravity theory due to the effect of China. Especially in the case of strategic material trade that places emphasis on the political relationship between trading nations, this study could see that the gravity theory, which assumes minimization of the transaction cost as the premise, is applied on a very limited scale if the effect of China is excluded. Also, this research can see that the sanctions of the international export control system, rather than the sanctions by the UN Security Council, had a negative effect on the trade of North Korea. And lastly, this study analyzes the trading pattern after excluding the effect of China based on the same data to compare it with the empirical study of Jung et al.

KCI등재 SSCI

6Russia's Arctic Military Strategy and Its Implications in the Post-Cold War Era

저자 : Jiwon Yun

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 2호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 297-311 (15 pages)

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With the advent of the post-Cold War era, the Arctic has emerged as a region for sustainable future growth and the coexistence of various forms of cooperation and conflicts as mutual interests between coastal states become established in a variety of ways. In particular, as the Arctic development and advancement has continued since the 2000s, aspects of military strategy have been highlighted in Russia. Regarding this situation, there has been an analysis that a new Cold War between the United States and Russia in the Arctic might take place. However, President Vladimir Putin of Russia stated that military exercises, including the modernization of a military base in the Arctic, after the adoption of the “Russian Federation Maritime Strategy 2020” in July 2001, is aimed at strengthening defense capabilities and national security. In this context, this paper seeks to investigate the current status of Russia's Arctic policy in terms of military security and examine its implications. From a Russian perspective, the modernization of military infrastructure, base construction and military exercises in the Arctic region are intended to effectively respond to security threats and take a leading role in a national emergency. These also serve as a breakthrough to overcome adverse economic conditions due to Western sanctions imposed against Russia after the Ukrainian crisis, and are measures to further strengthen non-military aspects, such as climate change, sustainable Arctic development, environmental protection and economic security. In this respect, the possibility of war and military conflict between the United States and Russia in the Arctic region is quite low.

KCI등재 SSCI

7ASEAN's Role in Promoting Non-Traditional Security Cooperation in the South China Sea: A Perspective from the Issues of Fisheries Security

저자 : Nguyen Xuan Cuong , Duong Van Huy

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 2호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 313-335 (23 pages)

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The South China Sea is one of the world's security hot spots regarding territorial sovereignty disputes among China, Taiwan and some Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. Currently, the dispute situation in the South China Sea is increasingly complicated and tends to be more stressful because the region's situation is not only heated up by territorial sovereignty disputes and geostrategic competition among great powers, but also by various non-traditional security issues, including fisheries security issues such as overfishing, illegal fishing activities, conflicts over fishery activities between countries. However, at present, there are no effective cooperative and rational mechanisms for fisheries in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is an important mechanism for managing regional security issues, including non-traditional security in the South China Sea. However, ASEAN's role in this region is still relatively weak. Given this situation, the article analyzes the current situation of fisheries security issue in the South China Sea and clarifies how ASEAN's role in this sector plays out in the current period. What actions should ASEAN take to contribute to ensuring non-traditional security in the South China Sea in general and fisheries security in particular?

KCI등재 SSCI

8Towards New African Security: A Prospective Role of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)

저자 : Seongwon Yoon , Sungsoo Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 33권 2호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 337-356 (20 pages)

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The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a flagship project of the African Union under Agenda 2063. Although the AfCFTA appears to be an economic issue on the surface, it is in essence a security agenda. Through the lens of the securitization framework, this article explores why the AfCFTA needs to be explained in a wider context of the nexus between security and the economy. After illustrating the traits of the security-economy nexus of Africa, the analysis incorporates security discourses in relation to the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) and the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), both of which demonstrate the continent-wide importance of the linkage between security and the economy. Despite RECs and APSA being core components of the structuring of African security, however, this article notes that they have fallen short of changing the basic structure of a security discourse that has been state-driven. Against this background, in highlighting the potential of the AfCFTA as a new strategic approach that enhances the discursive space for civil societies, a case is made for labeling non-elite social strata as security actors.

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