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서울대학교 행정대학원> Korean Journal of Policy Studies

Korean Journal of Policy Studies update

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수록정보
수록범위 : 1권0호(1986)~36권1호(2021) |수록논문 수 : 494
Korean Journal of Policy Studies
36권1호(2021년 03월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
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KCI등재 SCOPUS

1Do Machine Learning Methods Outperform Traditional Statistical Models in Crime Prediction? A Comparison Between Logistic Regression and Neural Networks

저자 : Chongmin Na , Gyeongseok Oh , Juyoung Song , Hyoungah Park

발행기관 : 서울대학교 행정대학원 간행물 : Korean Journal of Policy Studies 36권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 1-13 (13 pages)

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Although machine learning (ML) methods have recently gained popularity in both academia and industry as alternative risk assessment tools for efficient decision-making, inconsistent patterns are observed in the existing literature regarding their competitiveness and utility in predicting various outcomes. Drawing on a sample of the general youth population in the U.S., we compared the predictive accuracy of logistic regression (LR) and neural networks (NNs), which are the most widely applied approaches in conventional statistics and contemporary ML methods, respectively, by adopting many theoretically relevant predictors of the future arrest outcome. Even after fully implementing rigorous ML protocols for model tuning and up-sampling and down-sampling procedures recommended in recent literature to optimize learning algorithms, NNs did not yield substantially improved performance over LR if we still rely on a conventional dataset with relatively small sample sizes and a limited number of predictors. Nonetheless, we encourage more rigorous, comprehensive, and diverse evaluation research for a complete understanding of the ML potential in predictive capacity and the contingencies in which modern ML methods can perform better than conventional parametric statistical models.

KCI등재 SCOPUS

2Genesis of the Russia-Japan Conundrum in Northeast Asian Security: The Anatomy of Mutual Distrust and the China Factor

저자 : Se Hyun Ahn

발행기관 : 서울대학교 행정대학원 간행물 : Korean Journal of Policy Studies 36권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 15-25 (11 pages)

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This paper examines the potential and limits of Russo-Japanese bilateral relations across the Gorbachev, Yeltsin and Putin periods, exploring the roots of the mutual distrust between the two countries, Gorbachev's “new thinking” with respect to Japan, how Yeltsin's policy differed from Gorbachev's, what Putin's policy priorities were with Abe, and the limits of Russo-Japanese relations. I also analyze important external elements in bilateral relations such as the China factor, predict how Russian relations with Japan will affect Russia's future role in Northeast Asia, and discuss policy implications for Republic of Korea as well. The main argument of this paper is that Japan and Russia will continue to remain as immiscible in the end even before economic relations fully heated. Kuril Island dispute along with inherent mistrust between the two sides will continue to obstruct bilateral relations for the indefinite period unless there is a shocking event such as Russia's decision to yield the four islands in contention to Japan.

KCI등재 SCOPUS

3National Informatization Policy in Korea: A Historical Reflection and Policy Implications

저자 : Changhee Lee

발행기관 : 서울대학교 행정대학원 간행물 : Korean Journal of Policy Studies 36권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 27-43 (17 pages)

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This study examines, from a historical and macro perspective, the national informatization strategy that Korea has pursued over the past 40 years which laid the foundation for the rise of Korea as one of the leading countries in the digital revolution today. In particular, the informatization process is divided into five phases from the 1980s to the present, and analyzed in three aspects - main policies and plans, policy implementation system and structure, and major laws. And based on the previous research results, the success factors of informatization in Korea are discussed in terms of policy actors and institutions, policy implementation process, and policy environment. After examining the limitations of Korea's informatization policy, policy implications for developing countries are drawn in terms of policy process, policy design, and policy instruments.

KCI등재 SCOPUS

4The Transition of the Presidency, 2020-2021

저자 : James P. Pfiffner

발행기관 : 서울대학교 행정대학원 간행물 : Korean Journal of Policy Studies 36권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 45-59 (15 pages)

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The peaceful transition of power from one set of rulers to another is the essence of democracy. The United States has enjoyed the consensus that elections are the means to change leadership of the country for more than two centuries. The 2020-2021 transition of the presidency marks an exception to that consensus. President Trump refused to accept the reality of his 2020 defeat at the polls, despite the fact that Joe Biden won more than 7 million more votes than Trump and won the electoral college by a vote of 306 to 232. Trump declared that he had won the election and that his opponent, Joseph Biden, had conspired to steal the election through fraudulent ballots. This paper will briefly characterize the development of presidential transitions over the past half century. It will then examine the extensive efforts of President Trump to overturn the 2020 election that culminated in the volent attack on the United State Capitol on January 6, 2021. Finally, it will show how Trump tried to thwart the incoming Biden administration. It will conclude that Trump's actions in 2020 and 2021 presented a serious threat to the American polity.

KCI등재 SCOPUS

5The 2020 U.S. Elections: A Mixed Result for the Political Parties

저자 : Mark J. Rozell

발행기관 : 서울대학교 행정대학원 간행물 : Korean Journal of Policy Studies 36권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 61-68 (8 pages)

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KCI등재 SCOPUS

6From Fragile to Collapsed Statehood: The Case of the Republic of Yemen (1990-2020)

저자 : Jörg Michael Dostal

발행기관 : 서울대학교 행정대학원 간행물 : Korean Journal of Policy Studies 36권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 69-84 (16 pages)

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The unification of the two Yemeni states-the northern Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) and the southern People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY), respectively-in 1990 has been a resounding failure. Merging the tribal-dominated northern and state-party dominated southern regimes meant increasing the number of factions competing for access to state resources to satisfy material and security needs of their respective networks of influence. In particular, efforts at growing the resource base of the unified state after 1990, by means of an expansion of oil and gas exploration and extraction, raised the revenue base of the state in an unsustainable manner. Such growth in national oil and gas rents increased rather than decreased competition over state authority to control the spoils.
The major subsequent events, such as the 1994 civil war, the 2004-2010 “Saada wars” against the Houthi movement, the Yemeni version of the “Arab Spring” in 2011, the failure of the National Dialogue Conference (March 2013-January 2014), and the start of the Saudi and Emirati bombing campaign and subsequent ground war in Yemen since March 2015 all triggered major clashes between different factions of the Yemeni state bureaucracy, army, and civil society. On each of these occasions, efforts to freeze out some Yemeni actors produced escalating conflict between the remaining factions instead of a winning coalition that could have reestablished a degree of stability. The article explains how local, regional, and global factors have jointly overwhelmed the Yemeni actors, and how foreign intervention has led to the further deterioration of the pre-existing national crisis.

KCI등재 SCOPUS

7The Arts as a Polarized Issue and the Role of Political Trust in Promoting the Arts: Evidence From the United States

저자 : Jae Young Lim , Harin Woo

발행기관 : 서울대학교 행정대학원 간행물 : Korean Journal of Policy Studies 36권 1호 발행 연도 : 2021 페이지 : pp. 85-97 (13 pages)

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The arts in the United States, for a long time received strong support from both sides of the political aisle. However, in recent years, the arts have been transformed into a partisan issue that pits conservatives against liberals. The article points to the importance of political trust as a means of helping conservatives overcome their ideological inclinations and support the arts. Scholars argue that political trust influences more strongly individuals who perceive a given policy to be one that imposes ideological risks for them compared with those without such risks. Focusing on the moderating role of political trust, the article examines whether political trust can help alleviate the conservatives' hostility to the arts. Relying on the 2016 General Social Survey, the article finds that conservatives have no direct relationship with arts spending, but they will be more likely to support arts spending when this is contingent upon political trust.

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