간행물

한국금융연구원> 금융연구

금융연구 update

Journal of Money & Finance

  • : 한국금융연구원
  • : 사회과학분야  >  경제학
  • : KCI등재
  • :
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 계간
  • : 1225-9489
  • : 2714-0288
  • :

수록정보
수록범위 : 1권1호(1988)~36권4호(2022) |수록논문 수 : 495
금융연구
36권4호(2022년 12월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
| | | |

KCI등재

저자 : 서영경 ( Young Kyung Suh )

발행기관 : 한국금융연구원 간행물 : 금융연구 36권 4호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 1-19 (19 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

먼델-플레밍모형의 예측과 달리 우리나라는 자유변동환율제도 이후에도 미국과의 금리 동조화가 강하게 나타나면서 대체로 내외금리차가 제한적인 범위에 머물렀다. 그러나 미국의 금리인상이 우리나라 금리에 미치는 영향은 무역, 물가, 외환, 금융 등 파급경로 변화로 일률적이지 않으며, 최근에는 양국간 금리인상 속도가 차별화되면서 내외금리차가 확대되고 있다. 글로벌 인플레이션과 민간부채가 높은 상황에서 내외금리차가 확대되면서 통화정책 운용에 있어 물가-금융안정간 상충관계뿐만 아니라 대외금융안정(환율)과 대내 금융안정(금리)간 상충관계도 심화되었다. 한국은행은 물가안정에 우선 순위를 두고 금리정책을 긴축적으로 운용하되 국내외 금리상승에 따른 외환·금융시장 불안을 완화하기 위해 다양한 미시적 수급안정화 정책들을 보완적으로 사용하였다. 이러한 거시적·미시적 정책조합은 정책목표간 상충관계를 완화하고 금리정책의 파급경로가 원활히 작동하는 데 도움이 된 것으로 판단된다. 앞으로도 통화정책 관련 국내외 경제여건이 전례없이 복잡화된 데 대응하여 다양한 정책조합을 시행하는 동시에 관련 커뮤니케이션을 강화할 필요가 있다. 나아가 IMF, BIS 등의 포괄적 경제정책 프레임워크 등을 참조하여 우리나라에 적합한 정책조합체계를 모색할 필요가 있다.


Contrary to the assumptions of Mundell-Fleming model, South Korean interest rates have moved decisively in sync with U.S. counterparts even after the country has adopted a floating exchange rate regime in 1999, keeping the gap in rates of the two countries more or less in a restrictive boundary. But the impact of U.S. rate increases on Korean rates has not been consistent due to changes in the transition channel such as trade, inflation, foreign exchange, and financial markets. The recent difference in the pace of rate increases in the two countries has widened the gap in the rates. The widening gap in domestic and U.S. rates while global inflationary pressure and private-sector debt remain high has deepened the trade-off not only between inflation and financial stability in monetary policy-making, but also between foreign exchange rate and financial (or interest rate) stability.
The Bank of Korea has been flexible in rate policy while placing top priority in stabilizing prices and at the same time has been employing various micro measures to stabilize volatile foreign exchange and financial market from rises in rates at home and abroad. The mix of macro- and microeconomic policies have helped to ease the trade-off in policy goals and smoothen the transmission channel from rate policy. Due to the unprecedented complexities in economic conditions at home and abroad, monetary policy must be accompanied with various supplementary measures and stronger communication. We must continue to refer to the comprehensive economic policy frameworks suggested by the IMF and BIS to find the best policy mix and design for South Korea.

KCI등재

저자 : 강삼모 ( Sammo Kang )

발행기관 : 한국금융연구원 간행물 : 금융연구 36권 4호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 21-41 (21 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

지난 3년간의 코로나 위기와 2022년 초 발생한 우크라이나 전쟁으로 우리나라 경제는 큰 타격을 입었다. 여기에 더해 최근에는 한미 금리 역전현상까지 발생하여 복합위기에 대한 우려가 커지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 한미 금리 역전현상이 우리나라 금융시장에 미치는 영향과 환율 저평가 여부 분석을 실시하고, 이를 바탕으로 환율안정화 정책에 대해서 논한다. 2022년의 경제 상황은 1997년 동아시아 금융위기와 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 당시와 비교해 보면 국가신용등급도 상향되었고, 외환보유고는 증가하였으며, 단기외채 비중도 감소하고 금융기관들의 지표들도 양호하여 전과 같은 크기의 금융위기 재발 가능성은 높지 않은 편이다. 그러나 이전 위기 당시와 비교하여 GDP 대비 국가부채가 커서 정부의 재정 여력이 감소해서 부담으로 작용하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 구매력 평가설(PPP)과 Edwards의 균형실질환율을 이용한 방법을 이용해 균형환율을 계산하였는데, 2022년 하반기 환율 급등을 막기 위한 외환시장 개입정책은 나름대로 환율 저평가 상태를 줄이기 위한 의미있는 정책으로 보인다. 한미통화스와프를 위해서는 경제 뿐만 아니라 한미 동맹 등의 정치 외교적 접근이 필요하다. 만약 한미 통화 스와프 체결이 현실적으로 어렵다면 먼저 여타 국가와의 체결도 노력할 필요가 있다. 특히 일본, 중국, 스위스 등과 같이 국제 시장에서 통용되는 화폐를 가진 국가와 통화 스와프 확대를 추진해야 한다.


The COVID-19 crisis over the past three years and the war in Ukraine last year have dealt a huge blow to our country's economy. In addition, interest rates in the US and South Korea have recently reversed, raising concerns about a compound crisis. In this paper, we analyze the impact of the US-Korea interest rate reversal phenomenon on the Korean financial market and whether the exchange rate is undervalued, and discuss exchange rate stabilization policies. A comparison of the economic situation in 2022 with the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the global financial crisis of 2008 is as follows. The country's credit rating has also been upgraded, foreign exchange reserves have increased, the proportion of short-term foreign debt has decreased, and indicators of financial institutions are sound, so the possibility of a financial crisis again is not high. However, compared to the time of the previous crisis, the government's fiscal capacity has decreased due to the large government debt-to-GDP ratio, and the limitation in using fiscal policies to escape the crisis is acting as a burden.
In this paper, the real exchange rate misalignment was calculated using the purchasing power parity theory (PPP) and Edwards' equilibrium real exchange rate. It can be seen that the won/dollar exchange rate, which reached 1450 won in October 2022, was greatly undervalued. If the exchange rate is much undervalued, inflation and exchange rate volatility increase, which eventually adversely affects trade and investment. The foreign exchange market intervention policy to prevent a surge in the exchange rate in the second half of 2022 seems to be a meaningful policy to reduce the undervaluation of the exchange rate in its own way.
It is well known that currency swaps are effective for stabilizing the foreign exchange market. For the Korea-US currency swap, not only economic but also political and diplomatic approaches such as the ROK-US alliance are needed. If it is realistically difficult to conclude a Korea-US currency swap, it is necessary to first try to conclude an agreement with other countries. In particular, it is necessary to promote the expansion of currency swaps with countries that have currencies that are commonly used in the international market, such as Japan, China, and Switzerland.

KCI등재

저자 : 김진일 ( Jinill Kim )

발행기관 : 한국금융연구원 간행물 : 금융연구 36권 4호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 43-56 (14 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

본 연구는 여러 가지 경제정책을 조합하여서 실시하는 경우 고려해야 할 사항을 논의하고, 경제정책을 경제주체와 소통하는 문제 특히 통화정책의 경우 일어나는 문제를 분석하였다. 전통적으로 거시경제정책은 재정정책과 통화정책으로 나누어지는데 최근에는 이 두 가지 정책과 더불어서 금융정책도 최적정책조합 논의에 자주 등장한다. 이러한 세 가지 정책 간의 관계는 경제학의 기본 틀을 어떻게 이해하느냐의 문제와도 깊이 관련된다. 이 기본 틀은 재화와 시간 그리고 상태를 어떻게 모형화하느냐로 귀결된다. 경제정책이 국가 경제에 영향을 미치기 위해서는 경제주체와 성공적으로 소통되어야 한다. 특히 최근 수십 년간 통화정책에 있어서 소통방식은 괄목할만한 변화를 보여 주었으며, 이런 변화는 최근의 인플레이션 국면에서 우리나라 등 많은 국가에 큰 영향을 끼치고 있으며, 본고는 여러 가지 변화 중에서 특히 정책금리와 경제전망을 소통하는 방식을 논의한다.


This paper has two objectives: it examines an economic framework where multiple macroeconomic policies are implemented; and the paper analyzes the communication issues surrounding monetary policy.
Traditionally―as has been practiced in the context of the IS-LM model and the AD-AS model―macroeonomic policy adopts two policy tools: fiscal and monetary policies. Recently―in the 21st century―financial policy has been added in the macroeconomic policy toolkit. In understanding these three policies in a coherent fashion, it is important to understand the policies in the context of three dimensions for economic modeling: goods, time and state. In the space of goods, it is important to understand how the relative prices are determined and how an economic policy―most notably fiscal policy―may affect these relative prices. The most fundamental relative price in terms of time is the interest rate, and the nominal interest is the key policy variable for monetary policy. Return of many assets depends on the realization of the future states, and financial policy can and should influence of the future outcomes on each state.
Any policies can achieve its intended objective only when they are communicated successfully and effectively with economic agents. This communication issue is critical for monetary policy, since this policy depends heavily on how it influences on the expectations for the future states in its transmission mechanism. This is most prevalent in the United States, since the Federal Reserve System has gone through important changes during last few decades. Two of its most prominent changes are the forward guidance (for its policy rate) and the Summary of Economic Projections (for real activities and inflation rates.) These changes have potentially significant implications for the Bank of Korea regarding its forward guidance.

KCI등재

저자 : 전영준 ( Young Jun Chun )

발행기관 : 한국금융연구원 간행물 : 금융연구 36권 4호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 57-99 (43 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

본 연구에서는 일반균형모형을 이용하여 국민연금재정안정화 방안의 세대별 후생효과를 추정하였다. 현행의 급여수준을 전제하고 국민연금재정 수입을 확충하는 방식의 국민연금 재정안정화 방안을 상정하였다. 현행의 저부담-고급여 체제하에서 재정안정화를 위해 미래세대의 조세부담의 대폭적인 증가가 불가피하며 이로 인해 높은 수준의 후생비용이 초래될 것으로 예상된다. 또한 증세를 하되 사회후생을 극대화하는 최적 조세구조에 근접하는 세제개편을 통해 미래세대의 후생비용을 줄일 수 있는 가능성도 확인하였다. 소비세 비중의 확대, 소득세 비중의 축소, 자녀 양육과 교육 보조 확대와 더불어 초기 연도에 국민연금 재정흑자를 확대하여 국민연금기금을 증식하며 후기 연도의 적자재정을 통해 미래세대의 부담을 줄임으로서 미래세대의 후생비용을 줄이고 사회후생을 증진할 수 있을 것으로 보인다.


The issue of financial instability of National Pension (NPS) has been raised since 1990s. The level of promised NPS benefits is much higher than that of NPS contribution burden, this inevitably results in the financial instability, and the rapid population aging of Korea adds seriousness to the problem. The government has implemented a few policy revisions to resolve the problem: the NPS benefit replacement ratio on average was lowered from 70% to 60% in 1998, and from 60% to 40% in 2007. Despite the efforts, the fiscal unsustainability has not been fundamentally solved. The accumulation of pension debt will eventually increase the tax burden of the future generations. Various NPS revision plans have been suggested: from parametric reforms, which raise the contribution level or reduce benefits, to fundamental reforms, which replace the current system with a completely new contribution and benefit structure. Regardless of the revision method that the government may select, the policy revision will affect the net tax burden across generations, lead to change in the economic growth, and eventually alter their welfare level.
We attempt to address the welfare effects of the policy revisions for the fiscal sustainability improvement of the National Pension fund, using a general equilibrium model. We simulate the economy where the government implements the simplest form of the parametric reform for the long-term fiscal stability of National Pension budget: raising additional tax revenue of the present and the future to match the present value of the promised pension benefits with that of collectable pension fund revenue. This is because the fundamental reforms take various forms, therefore it will take time to reach a consensus on the policy and the action plan. Regarding the parametric reform, a higher priority is given to raising tax or contribution burden, because: the NPS benefit has been already lowered twice while the contribution rate has not been altered and is too low to service the promised benefit level. To accommodate the growth-reduction effects of tax increase in our simulation, we formulate the decision-making of individuals on the savings, the educational investment, and the fertility, which determines the wealth accumulation, the human capital buildup, and population increase. We also try to identify the optimal resource allocation, which is derived from the optimal tax structure and the optimal National Pension fund management scheme, to employ it as the benchmark for the welfare analysis.
The policy simulations with the model and the model calibration reflecting the Korean economy, the National Pension benefit and contribution structure, and the current tax structure reveals that: (1) the required increase in the tax revenues bring about large welfare cost of the future generations; (2) the welfare cost is primarily due to the reduction of economic growth resulting from the decrease in the human capital investment and the wealth accumulation; and (3) there is a large room for the welfare improvement by restructuring into the tax and the national pension fund management system close to the optimal taxation and the resulting optimal fund management scheme, by increasing proportion of consumption tax, reducing that of income tax, providing considerable subsidies to the childbirth, the childcare, and the educational investment, to improve the economic growth, and enforcing the national budget surplus in the beginning, turning into budget deficit in the later periods, maintaining a National Pension fund large enough to generating property income to make up the deficit, to reduce the tax burden of the future generations.
In this study, our main interest is the intergenerational equity related with the National Pension reform. The optimal tax structure derived from our analysis includes a considerable dependence of proportional consumption taxes, to finance the required net National Pension benefit payment, and reducing the progressive income taxes. Even though this tax structure has the advantage of improving growth and standard of living of the future generations, it undermines the intra-generational equity, which is the vertical equity of tax burden across income groups. The identification of optimal tax structure balancing the intergenerational equity and the intra-generational fairness should be next research agenda to overcome this dilemma.
In addition, our analysis focuses on the effects of the fiscal policies, related with the system stabilization of the National Pension. The analysis does not take explicit account of the distortion of financial markets due to the change in the National Pension fund magnitude. Excessive accumulation of national pension may cause the exorbitant market power of the fund on the financial markets, and the unconscionable interference in the management of private businesses. The future research will have to include this aspect of policy effects for the analysis.

1
권호별 보기

내가 찾은 최근 검색어

최근 열람 자료

맞춤 논문

보관함

내 보관함
공유한 보관함

1:1문의

닫기