간행물

한국국방연구원> 국방정책연구

국방정책연구 update

The Quarterly Journal of Defense Policy Studies

  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : 사회과학분야  >  정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • :
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 계간
  • : 1598-6101
  • : 2672-1392
  • : 국방논집(~1994) → 국방정책연구(1995~)

수록정보
136권0호(2022) |수록논문 수 : 6
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137권0호(2022년 10월) 수록논문
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KCI등재

저자 : 이근욱

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 137권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 7-35 (29 pages)

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For the last two decades and more, China has been a constantly rising power, but the U.S. policy toward China has shown fluctuations. What we need is a theoretical framework to understand the variation against a constant rise of another great power. Two variables are added: (1) America's strategic priority and (2) attitude toward globalization. The Bush and the Obama administrations were positive over globalization, but they differed in the strategic priority. The Trump administration prioritized the Chinese threat on the top of agenda, while it was hostile toward globalization. The Biden administration is not positive with globalization, but it might be distracted out of China in strategic priority due to Russia's war in Ukraine. Washington would present a series of issues for Korea in trade and investment for anti-globalization as well as its policy toward North Korea for strategic distraction.

KCI등재

저자 : 이용석 , 정경두

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 137권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 37-79 (43 pages)

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Wars between Russia and Ukraine use a variety of cyber means. This war is a fusion war between hacktivists and big tech companies. Reflecting on and applying our present in this war is an important task. To this end, literature research was conducted using public data such as case analysis, reports.

KCI등재

저자 : 장혜진

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 137권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 81-104 (24 pages)

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Why did Japan actively promote the revival of the Japan-US-Australia-India Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) as its new regional cooperation platform? And How could they succeed in convincing others to join? This article focuses on the shift in Japan's pursuit of reputation in the security realms and the need to balance against China as US's presence in the region is in relative decline. In this article I insist that the change of Japan's pursued reputation from 'non-military power' to 'reliable security partner' in the regional/international community is the reason that Japan could convince other regional partners and lead the revival of Quad. This argument is based on the logic of the cooperation and reputation. Cooperation needs information about potential partner's intention, and reputation of potential partners contains observable information, especially whether they are trustful or not. In other words, reputation is an important causal mechanism for emergence of multilateral cooperation, especially when it comes to the question of 'whom to cooperate with'. This is the reason why Japan's reputation or change of the reputation is key to the emergence of Quad.

KCI등재

저자 : 김기원

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 137권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 105-132 (28 pages)

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This study diagnoses the opportunities and risk factors related to the pursuit of defense digital transformation, and proposes a strategy for building an infrastructure of blockchain technology and implication as a base technology for building a digitalized defense force. The scope of the study was to analyze the usage status of blockchain and technology development trends in the defense field of global countries. Diagnosed the reason why blockchain technology does not get power in Korea defense field. Based on this, the defense utilization strategy was proposed, such as the utilization of blockchain in the field of operation, support, and security in the defense and the establishment of infrastructure. The research result is expected to be an option for defense digital transformation and technological hegemony response of global countries.

KCI등재

저자 : 곽승현 , 박명현

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 137권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 133-165 (33 pages)

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In this paper, we analyzed the spread of SARS-CoV-2(COVID-19) in the military through mathematical modeling. Since the omicron variant became dominant in 2022, the number of confirmed patients in the Korean military has soared, raising the need for mathematical research on the spread of COVID-19 in the military. This study verified the causality of the propagation patterns of civil society and military through Granger causality verification, and numerically analyzed the propagation patterns of military and civil society during a specific period by applying an compartmental model. Through this, it was possible to numerically estimate the characteristics of COVID-19 diffusion in the military.

KCI등재

저자 : 곽한성

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 137권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 167-199 (33 pages)

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This study presents a case-based reasoning(CBR)-based method that supports the selection of appropriate similar cases for the review of the unit cost in total project cost analysis. CBR is a technique for solving new problems by retrieving and revising the similar cases in the data set. This method was developed by applying the “retrieving” of CBR. First, the similarity measurement model for retrieving was identified by defining attribute importance and weights. Second, the model computes the case similarity scores. Finally, using the similarity score as an index, the method select the most similar cases from the data set. Based on administrative project case studies, the proposed method was validated.

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KCI등재

저자 : 이만석

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 136권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 7-41 (35 pages)

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Deterrence is a key mechanism for maintaining an international system's crisis stability by discouraging challengers from changing the status quo through the use of force. It is particularly crucial for maintaining the stability of the Korean Peninsula, when the relative balance of military power between the two Koreas is shifting as a result of North Korea's nuclear development. In the future, North Korea, which has grown in military power, may demand greater concessions from South Korea if it is not satisfied with the status quo. If South Korea does not agree, the North may use force to adjust the distribution of interests. Against this backdrop, this paper theoretically discussed the relationship between deterrence and crisis stability, and then applied this to the Korean Peninsula situation to draw implications. Finally, this paper contends that the primary responsibility of South Korean military strategists is to maintain stability by effectively implementing deterrence in the event of an unintentional crisis.

KCI등재

저자 : 박장호

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 136권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 43-81 (39 pages)

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This paper begins with the question of “Why did North Korea proceed rapidly in the Kim Jong-un era?” and analyzes the impact of the strategic space of the buffer system on North Korea's nuclear development strategy. The strategic space of the buffer system means the political, diplomatic, and military space in which the buffer states between the competitors can take advantage of external forces. North Korea's nuclear development strategy has been transformed into a 'hiding', 'hedging', and 'sprinting' strategy in accordance with the strategic space of the buffer system. As a result, Kim Jong-un developed nuclear weapons rapidly using expanded strategic space in a competitive buffer system.

KCI등재

저자 : 최영근

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 136권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 83-123 (41 pages)

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the effectiveness of South Korea's tactical nuclear weapons redeployment, which is presented as a de facto solution for North Korea in 2022, which possesses advanced nuclear capabilities, in terms of military crisis management. South Korea's tactical nuclear weapons redeployment can have three implications that it can have a negative impact on the management of military crisis on the Korean Peninsula. First, the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons will act as a means of hindering accurate communication between the two countries. Second, the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons will not take into account the intentions and positions of the other country, thus extending the Korean Peninsula to the battlefield of nuclear and conventional weapons threats. Third, the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons can lead to overlooking the influence of tactical nuclear weapons and increase the possibility of actual use of nuclear weapons, which can sharply increase the possibility of an all-out nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula.

KCI등재

저자 : 정영주

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 136권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 125-156 (32 pages)

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This study explores a lagged Air Tasking Order(ATO) planning cycle, resulting from AirLand Battle and propose the development of ATO Planning system. The 72-hour ATO planning process is suitable for linear battles of conventional wars. In the dynamic operational environment of modem warfare, the planning cycle, which takes three days, has critical limitations on agile response to adversary maneuver. This paper argues that if combat plans is automated with artificial intelligence, the ATO planning process can be drastically shortened. The paper, as a conceptual analysis framework for understanding this, proposes an centripetal decision-making cycle(Centripetal OODA Loop). Artificial intelligence will greatly contribute to enabling mission command pursued in joint all domain operations (JADO) and maximizing the synergy effect or jointness.

KCI등재

저자 : 조홍일

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 136권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 157-195 (39 pages)

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In this study, a computational model of trajectory of hypersonic glide vehicle( HGV) is presented. Using the model, performance of short range HGV applicable to Korean theater of operation is analyzed. There is a possibility that short range HGV could break or evade anti-ballistic missile defense system due to its maneuverability and low gliding altitude. However, HGV is not utterly immune to intercept because its speed is comparable with ballistic missiles. Characteristics of short-range HGV and North Korea's traditional strategies on ballistic missiles imply that North Korea could exploit HGV to threat or attack Republic of Korea in the future. To build response capabilities against HGV threat, Republic of Korea needs to enhance its WMD Response System capabilities such as space-based missile detection.

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Artificial intelligence and big data are the core technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and are changing the landscape in many fields, including national defense. This study specifically describes the concept of predictive maintenance that can directly utilize artificial intelligence and bigdata, and uses the turbofan engine dataset and the bearing dataset among NASA data as its application methods. For predictive maintenance, sound predictive management is essential, and when artificial intelligence is properly used, it is possible to analyze vast amounts of data and make accurate predictions. In addition, future research directions for applying artificial intelligence and big data to the defense field in the future were presented.

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