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한국국방연구원> 국방정책연구

국방정책연구 update

The Quarterly Journal of Defense Policy Studies

  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : 사회과학분야  >  정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • :
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 계간
  • : 1598-6101
  • : 2672-1392
  • : 국방논집(~1994) → 국방정책연구(1995~)

수록정보
134권0호(2022) |수록논문 수 : 5
간행물 제목
136권0호(2022년 07월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
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KCI등재

저자 : 이만석

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 136권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 7-41 (35 pages)

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Deterrence is a key mechanism for maintaining an international system's crisis stability by discouraging challengers from changing the status quo through the use of force. It is particularly crucial for maintaining the stability of the Korean Peninsula, when the relative balance of military power between the two Koreas is shifting as a result of North Korea's nuclear development. In the future, North Korea, which has grown in military power, may demand greater concessions from South Korea if it is not satisfied with the status quo. If South Korea does not agree, the North may use force to adjust the distribution of interests. Against this backdrop, this paper theoretically discussed the relationship between deterrence and crisis stability, and then applied this to the Korean Peninsula situation to draw implications. Finally, this paper contends that the primary responsibility of South Korean military strategists is to maintain stability by effectively implementing deterrence in the event of an unintentional crisis.

KCI등재

저자 : 박장호

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 136권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 43-81 (39 pages)

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This paper begins with the question of “Why did North Korea proceed rapidly in the Kim Jong-un era?” and analyzes the impact of the strategic space of the buffer system on North Korea's nuclear development strategy. The strategic space of the buffer system means the political, diplomatic, and military space in which the buffer states between the competitors can take advantage of external forces. North Korea's nuclear development strategy has been transformed into a 'hiding', 'hedging', and 'sprinting' strategy in accordance with the strategic space of the buffer system. As a result, Kim Jong-un developed nuclear weapons rapidly using expanded strategic space in a competitive buffer system.

KCI등재

저자 : 최영근

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 136권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 83-123 (41 pages)

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the effectiveness of South Korea's tactical nuclear weapons redeployment, which is presented as a de facto solution for North Korea in 2022, which possesses advanced nuclear capabilities, in terms of military crisis management. South Korea's tactical nuclear weapons redeployment can have three implications that it can have a negative impact on the management of military crisis on the Korean Peninsula. First, the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons will act as a means of hindering accurate communication between the two countries. Second, the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons will not take into account the intentions and positions of the other country, thus extending the Korean Peninsula to the battlefield of nuclear and conventional weapons threats. Third, the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons can lead to overlooking the influence of tactical nuclear weapons and increase the possibility of actual use of nuclear weapons, which can sharply increase the possibility of an all-out nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula.

KCI등재

저자 : 정영주

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 136권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 125-156 (32 pages)

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This study explores a lagged Air Tasking Order(ATO) planning cycle, resulting from AirLand Battle and propose the development of ATO Planning system. The 72-hour ATO planning process is suitable for linear battles of conventional wars. In the dynamic operational environment of modem warfare, the planning cycle, which takes three days, has critical limitations on agile response to adversary maneuver. This paper argues that if combat plans is automated with artificial intelligence, the ATO planning process can be drastically shortened. The paper, as a conceptual analysis framework for understanding this, proposes an centripetal decision-making cycle(Centripetal OODA Loop). Artificial intelligence will greatly contribute to enabling mission command pursued in joint all domain operations (JADO) and maximizing the synergy effect or jointness.

KCI등재

저자 : 조홍일

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 136권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 157-195 (39 pages)

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In this study, a computational model of trajectory of hypersonic glide vehicle( HGV) is presented. Using the model, performance of short range HGV applicable to Korean theater of operation is analyzed. There is a possibility that short range HGV could break or evade anti-ballistic missile defense system due to its maneuverability and low gliding altitude. However, HGV is not utterly immune to intercept because its speed is comparable with ballistic missiles. Characteristics of short-range HGV and North Korea's traditional strategies on ballistic missiles imply that North Korea could exploit HGV to threat or attack Republic of Korea in the future. To build response capabilities against HGV threat, Republic of Korea needs to enhance its WMD Response System capabilities such as space-based missile detection.

KCI등재

저자 : 홍창우

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 136권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 197-228 (32 pages)

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Artificial intelligence and big data are the core technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and are changing the landscape in many fields, including national defense. This study specifically describes the concept of predictive maintenance that can directly utilize artificial intelligence and bigdata, and uses the turbofan engine dataset and the bearing dataset among NASA data as its application methods. For predictive maintenance, sound predictive management is essential, and when artificial intelligence is properly used, it is possible to analyze vast amounts of data and make accurate predictions. In addition, future research directions for applying artificial intelligence and big data to the defense field in the future were presented.

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KCI등재

저자 : 박용진 , 이관중

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 134권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 7-37 (31 pages)

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The current autonomous technology limits the combat mission of UAVs, but if the weakness of the autonomy can be compensated with robust networks and crowding flights, the attritable UAVs can effectively respond to dominant enemy threats. The United States is developing the low cost and attritable UAVs and upgrading operational concepts to block China's challenge.
This paper suggested that low-cost and attritable UAVs can effectively perform surveillance and reconnaissance, initial response, etc. on threats of North Korean and neighboring countries by a combined operational concept with man and unman. With the development of autonomous technology, the roles of the low cost and attritable UAVs will be expanded.

KCI등재

저자 : 정일성

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 134권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 39-69 (31 pages)

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This thesis to review the US military's total force policy and reform of the reserve forces in the 1970s and establish a new concept for the reserve forces of the ROK by reflecting its implications. Priming the reserve forces into an elite force is to nurture the reserve to the level of the active so that the reduced the standing force loss can be substantially reinforced. For this, the concept of the reserve forces as a total force is required to be expanded to the unit level like the standing force, and related systems must also be developed. In particular, there is an urgent need to develop the combat power for the mobilization division that can integrate and combine with the Standing Division as the front reinforcement force in the early stages of the war.

KCI등재

저자 : 윤안국 , 장영호 , 이민우 , 오태호

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 134권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 71-107 (37 pages)

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Since Recently, KR/FE and UFG exercises have been replaced by new low-intensity exercises, and even those are implemented due to the COVID-19 incident. In this current situation, this paper diagnosed the problem of reducing or delaying the ROK-U.S. joint military exercise, and furthermore, the problem of the military exercise structure, and suggested the direction of development.

KCI등재

저자 : 김열수

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 134권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 109-142 (34 pages)

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The purpose of this article is to compare and analyze the current state of defense cost-sharing of Korea, Japan, and Germany, and based on this, suggest the direction for Korea's improvement in defense cost-sharing. There are six criteria for comparative analysis: ① determination method, ② support target, ③ calculation method, ④ method of provision, ⑤ transparency of execution, and ⑥ initiative of the host country. Implications can be drawn through comparative analysis.
Future directions for improvement in Korea's defense cost-sharing include changing the cost-sharing method, refraining from expanding support targets, establishing a consistent defense cost-sharing method, establishing a multi-year SMA validity period, securing transparency in defense cost execution, and securing subjectivity in defense cost execution. In addition, the size of the share of defense cost should be appropriate.

KCI등재

저자 : 선미선

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : 국방정책연구 134권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 143-169 (27 pages)

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In the environment of procuring various high-tech weapon systems, maintenance budget grew at an annual rate of 6.5 percent for last fourteen years(2008-2021). The rate is much higher than the growth rate of the other operating & support budget, 3.9 percent. In particular, aircraft maintenance budget were increasing more steeply with 7.0 percent because more new aircraft are procured and maintenance policy is highly regulated and safety critical. This study aims to develop maintenance cost estimating relationships for creating analytic application on Air Force fighter aircraft individually. Utilizing the budget documentations and information systems related to maintenance, 8 fighter aircraft operated from 1988 to 2019 are analyzed. Thirty regression models created for each aircraft by combining various variables and data periods are compared using Diebold-Mariano test with two criteria of   and MAPE. Maintenance cost estimation of an individual aircraft is important for setting budgets and for deciding when to replace aging systems. In addition, results from this study provide insight on when to start using actual O&S costs as a baseline for estimates in lieu of an analogous aircraft that has no sufficient cost data.

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