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1WTO 세계 무역왜곡보조 감축 논의와 시사점

저자 : 김상현 ( Sanghyun Kim ) , 정대희 ( Daehee Chung ) , 문한필 ( Hanpil Moon )

발행기관 : 한국농업경제학회 간행물 : 농업경제연구 63권 1호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 81-102 (22 pages)

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In preparation for the 12 th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC12), the Chairperson of the Committee on Agriculture-Special Session (CoASS) proposed a draft text (July 2021) and its amendment (November 2021) in order to derive tangible results in the field of domestic subsidy. It aims to cap and reduce the sum of current global agricultural trade-distorting support (TDDS) entitlements to 50% by 2030. As a result of the simulation using domestic support notification data from 2001 to 2020 of 102 WTO member countries, based on the Chair’s texts, two main policy goals are achieved; Proportionality that reduces more in member countries with a larger TDDS entitlements, Progressivity that alleviates the concentration of TDDS on specific countries. However, the entitlements of developed countries decreased by 48.5% while developing countries decreased by 52.6%, indicating that the latter ones are relatively disadvantaged. In case of the Republic of Korea, the basic cap of entitlements in the base year is reduced by only 12.1% in the 8th year of implementation (new cap). Furthermore, the difference between the entitlements and the expenditure will not change significantly. Therefore, the impact of the Chairperson’s proposal on domestic agricultural policy is expected to be limited.

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2세계 대구산업의 공급사슬 구조 분석 - 코로나19와 한국 중계무역을 중심으로 -

저자 : 황산산 ( Shan-shan Huang ) , 이정필 ( Jung-phil Lee )

발행기관 : 한국수산경영학회 간행물 : 수산경영론집 53권 3호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 1-15 (15 pages)

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The global cod market is supposed to have weak structure with a high dependence on the supply of Russia, the United States, Norway, and China. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted the cod supply chain for the worse. Fish processing facilities in China stopped their operation, and cod demand declined due to shrinking consumption in Europe. The position of South Korea as an intermediary trade country between Russia and China strengthened due to the U.S.-China trade war and the Atlantic cod decrease in 2019. However, this global cod supply chain collapse has caused South Korea to export accumulated cod to Indonesia and Vietnam at a bargain price, showing that South Korea was unable to cope with this supply chain crisis. The primary purpose of this study is to investigate changes in the global cod supply chain and their impacts on the intermediary trade of South Korea caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It also aims to provide implications by analyzing advanced cases in Denmark. As the cod supply chain crisis countermeasures, this study suggests that South Korea develop high value-added marine products, gain competitive advantages by solidifying the value chains of related countries, and activate export by discovering alternative markets in terms of the supply chain of the cod industry.

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315세기 명·티무르제국 간의 조공무역과 인도양 교역 네트워크 ― 중국 문헌자료에 나타난 세계화의 단상 ―

저자 : 한지선 ( Han¸ Ji-seon )

발행기관 : 명청사학회 간행물 : 명청사연구 54권 0호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 1-38 (38 pages)

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This paper aimed to examine the aspect of globalization, giving a focus on the issues of the lion tribute and the return through the sea route in the 19th reign year of Chenghua(成化). The issues of Timurid envoy's tribute and return through the sea route are able to be approached from the perspective of circulation of goods and information in the trade network of the Indian Ocean. In fact, the lion tribute incident in 1483 was not a diplomatic ritual but a trade act that was led only by Paryukwan, who understood the Eurasian trade network and the tribute compensation manual. In addition, the government's recognition of Paliuwan’s returning via Malacca is seen as a clue that the Ming government also understood that there was close exchange between the West Region(西域) and the ‘West Ocean(西洋)’ and did not set institutional restriction on it. The problem of the Timurid envoys' qualification was often pointed out from the Yongle(永樂) years. In fact, although tribute was a solemn ritual in East Asia, when it was seen from the point of view of merchants in Central Asia, tribute trade was one of the commercial activities that brought enormous profits. They were allowed to present the tribute by joining the envoy, and if not, they could trade their goods in the Ganzhou(甘州) and Suzhou(肅州) areas. Under therelationship between Ming and Timurid, merchants took advantage of diplomatic procedures or rituals to participate in tribute trade, and even when the unified power did not exist in inland Asia in the late 15th century, they approached China in an autonomous and common trade way. Inland envoys did seldom meet the diplomatic rituals that the Ming proposed or violated relevant regulations. Emissaries might not be real messengers as Ming's conservative officials suspected. However, they brought diverse goods including gold, silver, and jewelry from India, Arab, the Indian Ocean and even Africa. Even, items such as 鑌鐵刀, 鎖服, 撒哈剌, and 水晶椀 were overlapped with the tributes given by Calicut or Malacca. In addition, rose perfumes and glass products were produced and distributed throughout Europe and Asia These Timurid tribute lists showed that the Indian Ocean's maritime trade network linked by monsoons was connected to Europe, Africa, Central Asia, East Asia and even grasslands. The commercial achievements of Southeast Asia in the 1450s or 1500s are not denied, but the achievement of the sea is often confined to the sea. However, when the tribute list was looked at, it was understood that commercial energy of the trade network created by interaction between inland and coastal areas was transferred to deep inland areas such as Europe, West Asia, India, China, Russia and the Mongolian grasslands.

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4미⋅중 무역전쟁이 세계무역에 미치는 영향 -연산가능일반균형모형의 활용-

저자 : 고종환 ( Ko Jong-hwan )

발행기관 : 한중사회과학학회 간행물 : 한중사회과학연구 54권 0호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 229-256 (28 pages)

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본 연구에서는 多國家多部門CGE모형을 이용하여 현재 진행중인 미국과 중국간의 무역전쟁의 수단으로 미국과 중국이 상호 수입품에 대해 관세를 부과하는 경우, 전세계 교역에 미치게 될 것으로 예상되는 경제적 파급효과를 정량적으로 분석하였다. 부과되는 관세수준에 따라 2가지 정책시나리오를 설정하였다. 시나리오1은 미국이 대중국 2500억달러의 수입품에 대해 25%의 관세를 부과하고 중국이 이에 대해 대미국 1100억달러의 수입품에 대해 25%의 보복관세를 부과하는 경우이다. 시나리오2는 시나리오1에 추가로 미국이 대중국 3250억달러의 수입품에 대해 25%의 관세를 부과하고 중국이 이에 대해 대미국 900억달러의 수입품에 대해 25%의 보복관세를 부과하는 경우이다. 분석결과를 보면 미·중무역전쟁 결과 미국과 중국은 무역수지 흑자를 기록할 것으로 전망되었는데, 이는 미·중무역전쟁 결과 미국과 중국의 수출과 수입이 모두 감소하지만 수입의 감소가 수출의 감소보다 더 커서 나타나는 것으로 분석되었다. 그 결과 미국과 중국의 경제성장이 둔화되면서 전세계 교역이 감소하고 전세계의 경제성장 또한 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다.

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5세계무역네트워크의 중심성과 결정요인 분석: 글로벌 금융위기와 신보호무역주의의 영향

저자 : 김창범 ( Chang-beom Kim )

발행기관 : 한국통상정보학회 간행물 : 통상정보연구 21권 3호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 49-65 (17 pages)

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글로벌 금융위기 이후 신보호무역주의가 강화되는 상황에서, 본고는 네트워크분석 기법을 활용하여 WTN의 구조적 특성, WTN과 도입된 변수들 간의 상관관계, 도입된 변수들이 WTN에 미치는 영향의 크기와 방향을 동태적으로 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 우선 MDS 추정결과 보면 글로벌 금융위기 이후 주변국들의 위치 변화나 상관관계의 변화가 크게 나타났다. 그리고 MR-QAP 분석결과는 국가간 환경오염배출량의 차이와 무역개방도의 차이가 작을수록 무역네트워크가 확대되며, 국가 간 경제규모의 차이와 ICT 수출비중의 차이가 클수록 무역네트워크가 확대된다는 것을 보여주었다. 그리고 실효환율은 제1기간(2008-2010)과 제2기간(2011-2013)에서 실효환율 변화 방향의 동일성이 WTN을 확대시키는 것으로 나타났다. 본고는 경제규모가 세계경제에서 차지하는 비중이 큰 국가들 간 자유무역을 향한 의지와 정책, 무역부문에서의 환경과 기술 규제의 완화, 제조업분야의 글로벌 가치사슬의 확대, 국제통화기금과 지역경제협력체에서의 인위적 외환시장개입에 대한 억제 유도와 같은 정책적 시사점을 제시한다.


Under the circumstances of the expansion of neo-protectionism after the global financial crisis (GFC), the purpose of this paper was to analyze the structural characteristics and determinants of the world trade network (WTN) using the network analysis method. According to the multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) estimation results, the change in position and correlation between the periphery countries is significant after the GFC. More importantly, the multiple regression quadratic assignment procedure (MR-QAP) analysis indicates that the WTN strengthened the smaller difference of environmental pollution emissions and trade openness among countries, and the larger difference of economic scale and ICT export portion among countries. Additionally, directional identity of the effective exchange rate expanded the WTN in first period (2008-2010) as well as the second period (2011-2013). This paper presents significant policy implications such as a willingness to engage in a policy of free trade among developed countries, alleviate environmental and technological regulations in the trade sectors, expand the global value chain in the manufacturing sectors, and induce curbs on intentional intervention in foreign exchange markets by the International Monetary Fund and regional economic cooperation groups.

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6한중무역 30년의 변화와 시사점 -무역구조와 GVC 분석-

저자 : 문익준 ( Moon Ikjoon )

발행기관 : 중국학연구회 간행물 : 중국학연구 101권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 177-214 (38 pages)

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본 논문은 한중수교이후 한중교역 30년의 변화와 시사점을 분석하였다. 30년 한중교역의 특징을 요약해 보면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 1992년부터 2021년까지의 30년동안 한중 교역규모가 약 47배 증가하고, 수출에서 중국이 차지하는 비중도 1992년 3.52%에서 2021년 25.28%로 크게 증가하였다. 수교 초기에는 단순한 경공업에서 시작한 무역이 중화학을 거쳐서 반도체, 디스플레이 등의 고부가가치 품목으로 빠르게 변화했고, 반도체 중심의 산업내 무역으로 전환되었다. 둘째, 한중수교 이후 30년동안 한국과 중국은 서로 윈-윈하는 구조로 발전해 왔으나, 앞으로는 중국 정부의 전략과 통상환경의 변화로 인해서 구조가 변화할 가능성이 매우 크다. 증가하는 중국 수출과의 의존도, 반도체 산업을 중심으로 하는 산업내 무역, 한계에 이른 중간재 교역 구조 등은 향후 한중무역의 많은 구조적 변화를 예고하고 있다. 셋째, GVC 분석에 의하면, 한중무역의 국가별 부가가치 비중에서도 서로간의 부가가치 비중이 상승하였다. 또한 점차 글로벌가치사슬(GVC) 연계성이 낮아지면서 중국에서의 최종재 생산, 소비가 점차 증가하고 있다. 이는 중국의 대한국 수출 분석에서도 최종재 생산, 소비의 형태로 전환되고 있다. 본 논문의 시사점은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 한중 무역 30년동안 서로가 윈-윈하는 구조로 함께 성장하였으나, 앞으로는 과거와는 다른 대전환기에 직면할 가능성이 높다. 둘째, 한중 무역이 새로운 전환기에 진입하게 되면서 자유로운 무역과 투자 환경 조성을 위한 제도적인 기반이 중요하며, 한중 FTA의 서비스ㆍ투자의 협상등이 새로운 변화에 맞게 추진되어야 한다. 셋째, 한중 무역은 향후 반도체 산업을 중심으로 재편될 것이며, 양자간의 문제가 아닌 글로벌 다자간의 문제로 확대되면서 한국의 경제안보 전략이 매우 중요하다.


This paper analyzed the changes and implications of 30 years of Korea-China trade after diplomatic relations between Korea and China. First, over the 30 years from 1992 to 2021, the volume of Korea-China trade increased by about 47 times, and China’s share of Korea export increased significantly from 3.52% in 1992 to 25.28% in 2021. Korea-China trade quickly changed from simple light industry to high-value items such as semiconductors and displays and converted to semiconductor intra-industry trade. Second, Korea and China have developed into a win-win structure for 30 years, but in the future, the structure is highly likely to change due to changes in the Chinese government’s strategy and trade environment. The growing dependence on Chinese exports, intra-industry trade centered on the semiconductor industry, and the limited structure of intermediate goods trade are signaling many structural changes in Korea-China trade in the future. Third, according to the GVC analysis, the proportion of Korea and China increased in the proportion of added value by country. In addition, as the global value chain (GVC) linkage gradually decreases, the production and consumption of final goods in China are gradually increasing. The same result was found in China’s export analysis to Korea, and Chinese exports to Korea are converting to the form of final production and consumption. The implications of this paper are as follows. First, during the 30 years of Korea-China trade, they grew together in a win-win structure, but in the future, they are likely to face a major change from the past. Second, as Korea-China trade enters a new turning point, an institutional basis for creating a free trade and investment environment is important, and negotiations on services and investments of the Korea-China FTA should be promoted in line with new changes. Third, Korea-China trade will be reorganized around the semiconductor industry in the future, and Korea’s economic security strategy is very important as it expands to a global multilateral problem, not a bilateral problem.

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7미일 무역협정 체결과 효과에 대한 일고찰

저자 : 김용민 ( Yong-min Kim )

발행기관 : 한일경상학회 간행물 : 한일경상논집 95권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 21-32 (12 pages)

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is a discussion of Trade Agreement in products and the Digital Trade Agreement between US and Japan. This study contains an investigation of the process and the highlight of the agreement. By the trade agreement, US has obtained the Third biggest agricultural market which came after the decline in the nation’s trade deficit with Japan and the opening of agricultural market. In contrast to US, the aim of Japan’s trade agreement was avoiding tax-increasing on cars and its components. In this study, the issues and arguments caused by these different aims of the agreement will be analyzed. Research design, data, and methodology: The contents of the study are 1) an investigation on the details of US-Japan Trade Agreement, 2) an analysis of the highlight of Trade Agreement in products and the Digital Trade Agreement, 3) a comparison of importation of tax-decreased products by the trade agreement, 4) an investigation on the safeguard of Japan which was instituded during the trade situation, 5) the conclusion of this study. The contents of the study has its value in analyzing the issues and the arguments of these trade agreements. Results: The comparison of Japan’s importation with US between 2019 and 2021 is as follows. The percentages of foods and chemical products did not show meaningful change. The figure in ordinary machines and Electric devices has decreased. Meats and grains account for the 62.5% of total food which were 452.4 billion yens and 516 billion yens respectively. US’s importaion with Japan after the agreements accounts for about 5%(6.6 billion dollars) of total importaion with Japan. The importation percentages were ranked as follows: Ordinary machines, components of non-metal products, electric devices, optical instruments, metal products. The rates of these products have not changed in a meaningful figures. Only a few products have changed. The figures of ordinary machines, electric devices, rubbers have decreased. Implications: The trade between US and Japan was enlarged after the trade agreements between two countries. US oppressed Japan in order to compensate a loss which was caused by withdrawal from the TPP. Japan approached to the agreement with US to avoid tax-increasing in cars and its components. This study is challenging since the study was conducted not long after the agreements. However, the results in this study are valuable as one of the first researchs about the effect of US-Japan trade agreements.

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8한국 IT산업의 대(對)아세안 무역 경쟁력 연구

저자 : 유재선 ( Jae-seon Yu )

발행기관 : 한일경상학회 간행물 : 한일경상논집 94권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 1-13 (13 pages)

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the trade structure and competitiveness of Korea’s information technology (IT) industry in comparison to that of ASEAN, particularly in terms of quality. Research design, data, and methodology: Indices such as trade specialization index (TSI), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), and Market Comparative Advantage (MCA) are used. Further, an Intra-industry Trade (IIT) index is used to analyze qualitative changes in horizontal intra-industry trade and Intra-industry trade of high- and low-quality goods. Results: An analysis of export competitiveness through RSCA analysis showed that the Korean IT industry’s competitiveness against ASEAN is strong, and its competitiveness is gradually improving. By classification, broadcasting devices, parts, communication devices, and information devices were found to be highly competitive. In addition, the competitiveness of broadcasting, parts and communication devices in 2018 compared to 2010 has been shown to be more competitive and improved, but information devices have weakened further. According to the IIT analysis, more than 60% of Korea and ASEAN were made up of trade in the industry, and as of 2018, the ASEAN Korean IT industry had improved qualitative competitiveness compared to 2010. As a result of IIT analysis based on trade volume, HIIT has decreased and VIIT has increased, indicating that trade within horizontal industries is shifting from vertical to vertical industries. The analysis of IIT based on the number of items showed that HIIT is increasing and VIIT is decreasing, unlike the analysis of trade volume. However, as VIITL is decreasing and VIITH is increasing, the qualitative competitiveness of ASEAN Korea IT has improved. Implications: This study has academic and political implications, as it analyzes changes in Korea’s IT trade competitiveness. However, it is somewhat limited as factors determining qualitative aspects has not been considered.

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9한국과 시모노세키항의 무역실태 분석

저자 : 김용민 ( Kim Yong-min )

발행기관 : 한국일본근대학회 간행물 : 일본근대학연구 76권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 297-315 (19 pages)

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본 연구는 일본 시모노세키항의 대한국 수출입 실태를 분석하는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 분석은 2010년부터 2020년까지를 기간으로 무역액 변화를 통해 실태를 파악하였다. 분석을 통해 1) 모지세관의 대한국 수출입 규모가 크고, 2) 품목별로 화학제품의 플라스틱, 정밀기기, 일반 기계, 전기기기가 수출초과로 나타났다. 3) 일부 품목을 제외하고 무역 불균형이 확대되고 있다. 2019년 발생한 한일무역 갈등의 영향으로 한국의 대일본 수입수요가 감소하였지만, 통계적으로 일부 품목에서는 다시 이전수준으로 회복되는 것으로 나타났다. 시모노세키항의 한국 수출입 현황은 특히, 한국의 소재·부품산업 관련의 수출입 품목이 많은 비중을 차지하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 한국의 소재·부품산업이 전체 제조업의 50%를 기록하고 있고, 그중 소재 관련의 산업 자립도가 높지만, 계측 장비의 자립도가 낮은 수준이라는 점에서 대일본 의존도가 높을 수밖에 없다는 것을 확인하였다.


The purpose of this reseach is to analyze the exact state of import and export in Shimonoseki Port toward Korea. The exact state has been analyzed through the changes in the figure of the amount of trade from 2010 to 2020. The analysis shows 1) Moji customs contain large importation and exportation to Korea 2) Export exceeds import in plastic of chemical products, precison instruments, general machine instruments, electric instruments 3) A trade imbalance is increasing except a few items. Statistically, the import demand of Korea targeted to Japan has returned to general level in certen items although the import demand has been in decline by the 2019 trade conflict between Korea and Japan. In Shimonoseki Port, the enourmous part of import and export depends on Korean materials, components industry currently. Materials, components industry accounts for 50% of the whole manufacturing industry in Korea. However, the reseach shows that the trade dependence of Korea towards Japan is still huge as the measuring equipment industry of Korea depends on Japan, while Korean industry has high independence in material

KCI등재

10한중일 분업 구조의 변화와 미 중 무역

저자 : 고정식 ( Ko Jeong Sik )

발행기관 : 한중사회과학학회 간행물 : 한중사회과학연구 65권 0호 발행 연도 : 2022 페이지 : pp. 148-170 (23 pages)

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본 논문에서는 한중일 동북아 3국의 분업 구조 파악을 위하여 무엇보다 한중일 상호간 수출경쟁력 변화를 소비재, 중간재, 자본재 등 가공상품별로 분류하여 무역 상대국에 대한 비교현시지수(RCA)가 1992년에서 2019년 기간 추세적으로 어떻게 변화했는지 분석한다. 이를 통해 중국을 중심으로 동북아 분업 구조 성격이 동태적으로 어떻게 변화되었는지 파악할 수 있으며, 나아가 한중일 3국의 수출상품 경쟁력 변화에 어떤 영향을 주었는지도 확인할 수 있을 것이다. 다음으로는 동북아 분업 구조에 추세적 변화가 발생하였다면 중국의 대미국 수출경쟁력은 어떻게 변화되었는지 가공상품별로 분석하고, 미중 무역 갈등이 단순히 미국과 중국의 무역문제에 국한된 것인지, 아니면 미국의 무역적자 발생 원인의 이면에 중국을 중심으로 한 한중일 분업 구조와의 상관성이 높은 문제인지를 파악한다. 본 논문에서는 가공상품별로 나누어서 한중일 3국의 상대국에 대한 RCA 추세 변화를 파악해본 결과 이들 모든 국가에서 뚜렷한 변화가 확인되었으며, 따라서 한중일 3국의 분업구조는 동태적으로 변화되어 왔다고 할 수 있다. 이러한 동북아 지역 3국의 분업 구조변화는 중국과 미국 무역에도 직접적으로 영향을 미쳐왔으며, 이는 중국의 대미국 가공상품별 수출경쟁력 지수(RCA)에서도 동일하게 확인되었으며, 그 결과 미국의 대중국 무역적자 발생 요인과도 상관성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 첫째, 중국의 대한국, 대일본 RCA 추세 분석에서는 자본재에서 특히 경쟁력이 지속적으로 강화되어 온 것으로 확인되었다. 둘째, 일본의 대중국, 대한국 RCA 추세는 자본재에서는 경쟁력을 유지하는 것으로 나타났으며, 특히 한국은 추세 유지, 중국은 상승 추세로 경쟁력이 강화되어 온 것으로 분석되었다. 셋째, 한국의 대중국, 대일본 RCA 추세는 자본재의 경우 중국에 대해서는 경쟁력 강화추세이고, 일본에 대해서는 2000년대 들어와서 급속히 경쟁력을 상실하고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 중국의 가공상품별 대미국 수출경쟁력 추세 변화는 미국의 대중국 무역수지에도 동일하게 반영되어 나타났다. 미국의 대중국 무역적자는 미국의 전체 무역적자에서 거의 절반을 차지하고 있는데, 그 중 전통적으로 소비재 무역적자가 가장 큰 비중을 차지하고 있었으나 중국의 대미국 자본재 수출경쟁력의 추세적 상승과 함께 자본재에서의 무역적자 규모가 지속적으로 확대되어 소비재 무역적자와 거의 동일한 규모의 적자를 기록하고 있다. 중국의 대미국에 대한 중간재에서의 경쟁력은 확보하지 못함에 따라서 무역적자 요인으로 작용하지 않는 것으로 확인되었다.


In this research, as a result of dynamic analysis of the structure of division of labor between Korea, China and Japan in terms of RCA, it was confirmed that there was a continuous trend change. In particular, as a result of analyzing trend change of the RCA index divided by processed goods in the three countries of Korea, China, and Japan, in this paper, clear changes were confirmed in all of these countries. This change in the division of labor structure of the three Northeast Asian countries has directly affected bilateral trade between China and the United States, which was also confirmed in China’s Export Competitiveness Index (RCA) of each processed product to the United States. The main findings identified through this study are summarized as follows. First, in China’s RCA trend analysis for Korea and Japan, it was confirmed that competitiveness, especially in capital goods, has been continuously strengthened. Intermediate goods showed a trend of maintaining competitiveness with respect to Korea and declining competitiveness with respect to Japan. In the case of consumer goods, it was analyzed that the competitiveness of both Korea and Japan was declining. Second, Japan’s RCA trend toward China and Korea was found to maintain competitiveness in capital goods. In particular, for Korea, the trend has remained the same, and for China, it has been shown to be an upward trend which competitiveness has been strengthened. In the case of intermediate goods, it was confirmed that the Japan’s competitiveness to the both Korea and China was on the increase. In consumer goods, it was found that competitiveness increased with respect to China and inferior to that of Korea. Third, it is analyzed that Korea’s RCA index toward China and Japan is a trend of strengthening of competitiveness with respect to China and rapidly losing of competitiveness in the 2000s with respect to Japan in the case of capital goods. In the case of intermediate goods, RCA continued to increase with respect to Japan, indicating that competitiveness is being strengthened. This means that the vertical division of labor in Korea-Japan trade in the intermediate goods has been transformed into a horizontal division of labor. On the other hand, it was confirmed that the Korea’s competitiveness of intermediate goods to the China is declining. In the case of consumer goods, the RCA index is declining in both China and Japan. The content analyzed in the trend change of the RCA index for the three countries of Korea, China and Japan was reflected in the change in China’s export competitiveness to the US as well. In other words, China’s export competitiveness to the US in terms of processed goods shows the most distinct upward trend in capital goods, and the export competitiveness of consumer goods is maintained, but the trend is declining. In the case of intermediate goods, it was analyzed that China’s export competitiveness to the US was not secured. This is the same result as the analysis of China’s to the Japan and Korea. Changes in China’s export competitiveness to the US in terms of processed goods are reflected in the US trade balance with China as well. The U.S. trade deficit with China accounts for nearly half of the total trade deficit in us, trade deficit of the consumer goods among total deficit in trade with china has traditionally accounted for the largest proportion. As China’s competitiveness in exporting capital goods to the United States increases, the trade deficit in capital goods continues to expand, recording a deficit nearly equal to that of consumer goods. It was verified that it did not act as a factor in the trade deficit as China did not secure competitiveness in intermediate goods with the United States.

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