This paper examines the political complexity, which is at the heart of current cross-strait relations. The view of cross-strait issues from a Taiwan perspective sees a mixed picture with two major trends at work, the momentum for democratic consolidation and challenges to regional security. These trends appear to be merging and could possibly pose the greatest challenge to regional stability if an applicable mechanism of crisis management is not developed. Against this backdrop, the United States plays the most critical role in maintaining the status quo and the balance. The U.S. has encouraged both sides to make efforts to facilitate talks across the strait. Despite the change in rhetoric after President Chen won the 2004 re-election and an offering of an olive branch to China, cross-strait relations have not improved. After the Legislative Yuan’s election in December 2004, the next big challenge for the US, China, and Taiwan will be Chen’s drive for “2006 constitutional reform.” Near-term challenge however appears on China’s attempt to issue anti-secession law. The first direct flights deal for Lunar New Year holidays, which was agreed on January 15, 2005, was an overdue but encouraging signal. The mix feeling would be major part of near-term prospect for the cross-strait relation.

This paper examines the political complexity, which is at the heart of current cross-strait relations. The view of cross-strait issues from a Taiwan perspective sees a mixed picture with two major trends at work, the momentum for democratic consolidation and challenges to regional security. These trends appear to be merging and could possibly pose the greatest challenge to regional stability if an applicable mechanism of crisis management is not developed. Against this backdrop, the United States plays the most critical role in maintaining the status quo and the balance. The U.S. has encouraged both sides to make efforts to facilitate talks across the strait. Despite the change in rhetoric after President Chen won the 2004 re-election and an offering of an olive branch to China, cross-strait relations have not improved. After the Legislative Yuan’s election in December 2004, the next big challenge for the US, China, and Taiwan will be Chen’s drive for “2006 constitutional reform.” Near-term challenge however appears on China’s attempt to issue anti-secession law. The first direct flights deal for Lunar New Year holidays, which was agreed on January 15, 2005, was an overdue but encouraging signal. The mix feeling would be major part of near-term prospect for the cross-strait relation.