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한국의 지류 (紙類) 수요예측에 관한 연구
Forecasting of Demand for Papers in Korea
정일용 , 정영관 ( Il Yong Chung , Young Gwan Chung )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2008-520-002126082

The purposes of this study are to analyze and forecast the domestic demand for papers by regression models with time-series data (1965-81). For the period of 1965-81, the real GNP of Korea grew at annual average increase rate of 8.8 percent. On the other hand, the domestic demand of papers grew at annual average increase rate of 17.9 percent in this period. Especially, the annual average increase rate for board-papers accounted to 25.8 percent. To analyze domestic demand for papers, GNP, per capita GNP, price findex of papers, production activity index of the major papers consuming industries and price index of substitutive goods were selected as independent variables. The expected values of domestic demand for papers were computed by forecasting equations as follows. T-values are in parentheses.

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