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우리나라 목재수요의 장기여측에 (長期予測) 관한 연구
Study on the Long - Term Demand Projections for Timber in Korea
김장수 , 박호탁 ( Jang Soo Kim , Ho Tak Park )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2008-520-002107321

The purpose of this study is to analyze and to forecast the long-term domestic demand and export demand for timber in Korea by regression models with time series data during 1962∼1978. The method applied in this study was econometric analysis using Time Series Processor. The most important explanatory variables of timber demand were found to be the production activities of wood products industries to the prices of substitute goods. On the basis of the long-term forecast made according to the guidelines of the Fifth Five-Year Plan. According to the projection, domestic timber demand is projected at 8 million cubic meters in 1987 and 10.6 million cubic meters in 1991. On the other hand, the total demand (domestic demand plus export demand) for timber is projected 21.4 million cubic meters in 1987 and 27.2 million cubic meters in 1991.

[자료제공 : 네이버학술정보]
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