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목재가격의 경향변동과 (傾向變動) 계절변동 분석
Secular Trend and Seasonal Variation of Timer Prices in Korea
조응혁 ( Eung Hyouk Cho )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2008-520-002108419

The secular trends and seasonal variation of the prices of imported lauan sawtimber, domestic red pine logs and sawtimber have been analyzed to find out the features and origins of price fluctuation in Korea for the period of 1961∼1971. The results may be summarized as follows: 1. The relative prices of red pine logs were raised by 1.23 percent per year, and those of red pine and lauan sawtimber were decreased by 0.10 and 0.93 percent, respectively through the period. As a whole, there is a tendency in the country that timber prices were gradually decreased by lowing timber demand through savings in consumption and exploitation of alternative materials, with the increased supply through continuous log import. 2. There is also a tendency that the seasonal variation reduced in the last 15 years. In the period of 1961∼1968, the seasonal price indices were peaked in spring and autumn, but thereafter peaked in spring and dropped down until winter. 3. In secular and seasonal variations of timber prices, the trend of sawtimber prices was dependent upon that of log prices` but the fluctuation was larger in log prices.

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