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중국 지정학적 위험이 중국 실물경제에 미치는 영향연구
The Study on the Impact of Chinese Geopolitical Risks on the Chinese Real Economy
이기영 ( Lee Kiryoung )
중국연구 vol. 99 91-115(25pages)

In this study, we analyzed the impact on the Chinese real economy using the Geopolitical Risk Index measured by Caldara & Iacoviello (2022). While there exists extensive research on the effects of 'Economic Uncertainty' on the economy using various methodologies, geopolitical risk provides unique, independent information from general economic conditions. This is particularly significant for a country like China, where despite substantial quantitative growth and close ties with the global economy, the economic structure remains vulnerable. Our hypothesis, that the real economy can be negatively impacted by geopolitical risk independently from economic conditions, was tested. Notably, a significant portion of China's geopolitical risk is influenced by the United States, resulting in a high correlation with U.S. geopolitical risk. Through statistical treatment, we constructed an index of Chinese geopolitical risk that excludes U.S. influences and conducted an 'Impulse Response' analysis on real economic variables. The results indicate that, after removing the influence of U.S. geopolitical risk, China's geopolitical risk significantly negatively affects investment, production, and consumption, though its impact on trade was not statistically significant but still negatively oriented. These findings confirm that China's real economy can be adversely affected by geopolitical risk, independently of overall economic conditions, suggesting that countries affected by China's real economy should pay close attention to changes in geopolitical risk.

Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 선행연구
Ⅲ. 이론분석
Ⅳ. 실증분석
Ⅴ. 결론
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