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인구 자연증감의 변화구조와 동태성 분석
Analysis of Circular Causal Structures and Dynamic Behaviors of Natural Population Increase and Decrease
최남희 ( Choi Nam-hee )
DOI 10.32588/ksds.25.1.1

As the fertility rate continues to decline, the number of births is falling sharply. Furthermore, the number of deaths is rapidly increasing due to aging. This study examines the future size of the population and its composition given the continuance of the fertility rate decline and the current population structure. The goal of the study is to explore the emergence of systemic dynamics over an extended time horizon. Using the system dynamics methodology, the causal feedback structures of natural population changes were analyzed. Additionally, a simulation model was developed by considering the feedback structures of delaying births (tempo effect), reducing the number of births (quantum effect), and aging. The results of the simulation model show that if the current population decline pattern and structure are left unaltered until 2100, the total population will be one-quarter of the current size, resulting in a mere 13 million people.

Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 인구 자연증감에 대한 이론적 검토와 분석의 틀
Ⅲ. 인구 자연증감 상황 진단과 피드백구조 분석
Ⅳ. 인구 자연증감의 동태성에 대한 시뮬레이션 모델링
Ⅴ. 결론
【참고문헌】
[자료제공 : 네이버학술정보]
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