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자동기계학습 TPOT 기반 저수위 예측 정확도 향상을 위한 시계열 교차검증 기법 연구
A Study on Time Series Cross-Validation Techniques for Enhancing the Accuracy of Reservoir Water Level Prediction Using Automated Machine Learning TPOT
배주현 ( Bae Joo-hyun ) , 박운지 ( Park Woon-ji ) , 이서로 ( Lee Seoro ) , 박태선 ( Park Tae-seon ) , 박상빈 ( Park Sang-bin ) , 김종건 ( Kim Jonggun ) , 임경재 ( Lim Kyoung-jae )
DOI 10.5389/KSAE.2024.66.1.001
UCI I410-ECN-151-24-02-089151453

This study assessed the efficacy of improving the accuracy of reservoir water level prediction models by employing automated machine learning models and efficient cross-validation methods for time-series data. Considering the inherent complexity and non-linearity of time-series data related to reservoir water levels, we proposed an optimized approach for model selection and training. The performance of twelve models was evaluated for the Obong Reservoir in Gangneung, Gangwon Province, using the TPOT (Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool) and four cross-validation methods, which led to the determination of the optimal pipeline model. The pipeline model consisting of Extra Tree, Stacking Ridge Regression, and Simple Ridge Regression showed outstanding predictive performance for both training and test data, with an R2 (Coefficient of determination) and NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) exceeding 0.93. On the other hand, for predictions of water levels 12 hours later, the pipeline model selected through time-series split cross-validation accurately captured the change pattern of time-series water level data during the test period, with an NSE exceeding 0.99. The methodology proposed in this study is expected to greatly contribute to the efficient generation of reservoir water level predictions in regions with high rainfall variability.

Ⅰ. 서 론
Ⅱ. 연구방법
Ⅲ. 결과 및 고찰
Ⅳ. 결 론
감사의 글
REFERENCES
[자료제공 : 네이버학술정보]
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