中国和巴基斯坦之间中巴经济走廊建设作为中国 “一带一路”倡议的旗舰项目, 对于 “一带一路”倡议的顺利推进发挥着至关重要的作用, 而良好的中巴关系是中巴经济走廊建设的基础和保障。近年来, 由于各种巴基斯坦国内的安全形势频繁变化, 针对中国在巴基斯坦投资项目的恐怖主义活动的高发, 为中巴关系的下一步走向埋下了隐患。巴基斯坦部落地区作为巴基斯坦较为落后的地区, 其安全和稳定对于巴基斯坦国内的安全和稳定具有重要的意义。自2018年, 巴基斯坦部落地区正式并入开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省以来, 如何通过中巴经济走廊建设带动部落地区发展, 成为中巴经济走廊建设的重要议题之一。因此, 针对巴基斯坦部落区投资风险进行科学研判, 制定对策对于促进中巴两国共同发展有着重大意义。本文从相互依存理论的角度分析了中巴关系, 得出中国和巴基斯坦的相互依存属于一种平衡的依存关系, 巴基斯坦需要中国的投资来发展经济, 而中国需要巴基斯坦国内稳定来提供对外贸易的通道。由于历史原因, 巴基斯坦部落地区经济落后, 基础设施不完善, 居民受教育程度低等原因, 容易成为威胁巴基斯坦国内安全和稳定的重要风险因素, 从而影响中巴经济走廊建设。本文认为, 中巴经济走廊需要巴基斯坦部落地区的支持和参与, 而巴基斯坦部落地区也期望通过经济走廊获得发展机遇, 这种关系使得投资风险对中巴经济走廊的影响变得尤为重要。本文通过对巴基斯坦部落区的情况进行分析, 推导出投资风险模型, 以期为中巴经济走廊建设覆盖到巴基斯坦部落区提供有益的意见。最后, 本文认为中巴两国应继续加强合作, 加强政治外交领域合作、加强部落领袖对话合作、加强投资风险监测合作和加强民生扶贫领域合作等角度, 提出中巴两国应当共同应对投资风险, 以确保中巴经济走廊的可持续发展。
The construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as the flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), plays a vital role in ensuring the smooth advancement of the BRI. In recent years, the frequently changing domestic security landscape in Pakistan and the rampant terrorist attacks targeting China’s investment projects in Pakistan have posed threats to the future direction of China-Pakistan ties. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas(FATA) in Pakistan, as the relatively underdeveloped regions in the country, are crucial for Pakistan’s domestic security and stability. Since the formal integration of FATA into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in 2018, how to boost the development of tribal areas through CPEC construction has become one of the key issues. Through the perspective of interdependence theory, this paper analyzes China-Pakistan relations and concludes that the interdependence between China and Pakistan is a balanced one, in which Pakistan needs China’s investment to develop its economy while China relies on a stable Pakistan to provide channels for foreign trade. Due to historical reasons, the underdeveloped economy, inadequate infrastructure, and low education level in Pakistan’s tribal areas could easily become major risk factors threatening Pakistan’s domestic security and stability, thus impacting CPEC construction. This paper argues that CPEC needs the support and participation from Pakistan’s FATA, and meanwhile the FATA expect development opportunities from CPEC, which makes investment risks particularly important for CPEC. Finally, this paper proposes that China and Pakistan should continue to strengthen cooperation from various perspectives, such as enhancing political and diplomatic cooperation, promoting dialogues with tribal leaders, strengthening investment risk monitoring, and intensifying poverty alleviation efforts.
