본고는 문재인 정부 시기 미·중 사이에서 한국의 ‘균형 외교’를 정작 미국과 중국은 어떻게 보고 있는지 살펴보고, 이것이 한국 차기 정부에 주는 정책 함의를 살펴본다. ‘외교는 상대가 있는 것’이라 하니, 상대국의 입장에서 대한민국의 외교를 반추해 보고 현재 한국의 전략적 좌표를 점검해보는 것이다. 미·중 경쟁이 본격화한 시기는 대부분 문재인 정부의 임기와 중첩된다. 차기 정부 출범을 앞두고 있는 상황이기도 한 현 시점에서 이러한 리뷰는 시기적 유용성을 갖는다. 본고는 미·중 양국 정책에 관여하는 현지 관계자들의 솔직한 시각을 본문 안에 최대한 녹여서 담으려 했다. 문재인 정부는 임기 내내 ‘친중’ 논란에 휩싸여왔다. 사회주의 중국에 대한 사대굴종으로 대한민국 외교안보의 근간인 한·미동맹과 자유민주주의 정체성을 훼손했다는 비판이다. 대한민국의 국가이익으로 연결되지 않은 친중 행보는 ‘실속 없는 친중’으로 끝났고, 유일 동맹인 미국과 거리를 둔 문재인 정부의 ‘전략적 모호성’은 외교 운신의 폭을 넓히기 보다는 한·미동맹의 신뢰를 손상시켰다. 결과적으로 문재인 정부에서 한·중 관계, 한·미관계 모두 퇴행하였다.

This essay examines how the U.S. and China view South Korea’s “balancing diplomacy” between them, and examines its policy implications for the incoming South Korean government under Yoon Suk-yeol. Since diplomacy, by nature, needs a counterpart to function, the aim is to reflect on the diplomacy of South Korea from the perspectives of the other party and assess the current diplomatic strategic coordinates of South Korea. The period starting from 2017 was when the U.S.-China competition began in earnest, and it also overlaps with the office term of the Moon Jae-in government. As such, this examination serves as a review for the effectiveness of the Moon administration’s diplomacy. The current juncture is also a time when the next South Korean government is set to take office. Therefore, the findings in this essay have timely usefulness and policy implications. In particular, this essay tried to incorporate the candid views from the members of the policy community in Washington and Beijing, not to mention, those in Seoul. This essay examines how the U.S. and China view South Korea’s “balancing diplomacy” between them, and examines its policy implications for the incoming South Korean government under Yoon Suk-yeol. Since diplomacy, by nature, needs a counterpart to function, the aim is to reflect on the diplomacy of South Korea from the perspectives of the other party and assess the current diplomatic strategic coordinates of South Korea. The period starting from 2017 was when the U.S.-China competition began in earnest, and it also overlaps with the office term of the Moon Jae-in government. As such, this examination serves as a review for the effectiveness of the Moon administration’s diplomacy. The current juncture is also a time when the next South Korean government is set to take office. Therefore, the findings in this essay have timely usefulness and policy implications. In particular, this essay tried to incorporate the candid views from the members of the policy community in Washington and Beijing, not to mention, those in Seoul. The Moon Jae-in administration has been embroiled in controversy over its “pro-China” tilting throughout the presidency. President Moon has been criticized for undermining the Korea-U.S. alliance and the nation’s identity as liberal democracy, which are the foundation of South Korea’s diplomacy and security. Yet the even bigger problem, this essay points out, is that President Moon’s pro-China posture did not yield real substantial benefits for South Korea, as China did not respond in kind. Meanwhile, the Moon Jae-in administration’s “strategic ambiguity,” which distanced itself from its only pact ally, the United States, has resulted in undermining the trust in the ROK-U.S. alliance, rather than broadening the scope of South Korean diplomatic maneuvering room between the two superpowers. As a result, both South Korea-China and South Korea-U.S. relations under the Moon Jae-in administration have deteriorated.