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VECM을 이용한 방한 베트남관광객 수요와 한국-베트남 무역과의 인과성
A Study on the Causality between the Demand of Vietnamese Tourists Visiting Korea and Trade between Korea and Vietnam Using VECM
김도훈 ( Kim¸ Do-hoon )
MICE관광연구 20권 2호 87-105(19pages)
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2021-300-001108813

The purpose of this study is first, to identify the causality between the demand of Vietnamese tourists visiting Korea and the Korean-Vietnam trade; second, to empirically analyze and predict the long-run and short-run dynamic effects of the two. Estimates of the VECM showed that the long-run elasticity of the Korean-Vietnam trade and the demand of Vietnamese Tourists visiting Korea was 1.289. As a result of the analysis of the Impulse Response Function, the trade shock between Korea and Vietnam had a positive effect on the demand of Vietnamese Tourists visiting Korea from two months. And the impact of the demand of Vietnamese Tourists visiting Korea had a positive effect on the trade for the first two months, but not much in the long run. As a result of Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, it is estimated that if the trade between Korea and Vietnam changes, the effect on the demand for tourists from Vietnam will gradually increase.

Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 선행연구 검토
Ⅲ. 연구방법
Ⅳ. 실증분석
Ⅴ. 결론
참고문헌
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