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Novel nomogram for screening the risk of diabetes in Korean population
( Seung Min Chung ) , ( Jae Cheol Park ) , ( Ji Sung Yoon ) , ( Kyu Chang Won ) , ( Hyoung Woo Lee ) , ( Jun Sung Moon ) , ( Jea Young Lee )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2021-500-000682636
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Objective: Korea has experienced a rapid increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) for the last decade, thus it is becoming more important to estimate the risk of developing T2D. In this study, we propose a novel nomogram which graphically expresses the numerical relationship between T2D and disease-related risk factors. Methods: A total of 8,999 data from ‘2013-2014 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES)’ were analyzed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to assess risk factors for T2D and the nomogram was constructed based on screened risk factors. Receiver operating curve (ROC) and calibration plot was done to evaluate the accuracy of nomogram. Results: Risk factor with greatest impact on the incidence of T2D was age over 60 years (OR = 9.458, 95% CI 5.966-14.995), followed by presence of dyslipidemia and cardiovascular disease (OR = 8.981, 95% CI 5.897-13.679), family history of T2D (OR = 2.916, 95% CI 2.334-3.644), abdominal obesity (OR =1.759, 95% CI 1.406-2.199),hypertension (OR = 1.747, 95% CI 1.401-2.179), male gender (OR = 1.549, 95% CI 1.121-2.141), current-smoker (OR = 1.523, 95% Cl 1.081-2.145), lower education level (OR = 1.417, 95% CI 1.085-1.850) and lower income (OR = 1.300, 95% CI 1.019-1.659). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) showed statistically significant determination (AUC = 0.826). The equation graph of calibration plot was drawn along the ideal line and the coefficient of determination was 0.864. Conclusion: Our proposed nomogram could accurately predict the incidence risk of T2D from nationwide data. These result suggested that the novel nomogram can be a useful tool for screening of T2D in general population in Korea.

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