임대주택유동화증권(Rental-Backed Securities, 이하 RBS)은 임대주택사업 실시과정에서 발생하는 장래의 임대수익을 상환재원으로 차입을 실시하고 이를 유동화한 증권이다. 장기공공임대주택의 공급확대 요구와 필요성이 높아지는 가운데, RBS는 이를 위한 새로운 재원조달 방법이 될 수 있다. 본 논문은 정책 및 실무적으로 중요한 사안인, 임대주택의 유동화 사례와 구조를 소개하고 발행 가능한 규모를 추정함으로써 RBS를 활용하였을 때 유의미한 재원조달이 가능한지 여부를 분석하였다. 실증분석결과, 최장만기 30년 이상의 RBS를 활용하면 임대주택단지 조성을 위한 사업에 지역 공기업이 직접투자를 하는 기존의 방식보다 더 낮은 금융비용으로 충분한 규모의 재원을 조달할 수 있을 것으로 예상된다. 또한, 공급계수·전월세전환율·보증금전세비율·공실률 등 RBS와 관련된 위험요인을 시나리오 분석을 통해 검토한 결과, 전월세전환율이 미치는 영향이 가장 큰 것으로 나타났다. 본 정책연구에서는 이러한 위험요인을 극복하는 방안으로 콜옵션 조항 설정, 단기채권을 활용한 롤오버(rollover), 변동금리채권 발행, 패스스루(passthrough) RBS 발행을 제시한다.

Rental-backed securities (RBSs) are securitized loans that use future income from a rental housing business as their underlying asset. RBSs can provide a new source of funding to expand the supply of public rental housing as the demand and need for such housing increases. This study introduces example securitization structures for rental housing and analyzes whether RBSs can provide meaningful financing by estimating the sizes of issuance. For this analysis, we use similar conditions and variables as those used for social rental housing development projects conducted by a local government agency and estimate the RBS cash flow. The results of this analysis show that by using RBSs with maturities of 30 years or above, government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) can sufficiently finance their projects at a lower cost than that incurred using existing resources. We estimate that RBSs with maturities of up to 20, 30, and 40 years can finance 29.70%, 43.90%, and 50.87% of total project costs, respectively. These results imply that local government agencies can raise funds at a lower cost than that of direct investment by utilizing asset securitization agencies to issue RBSs. In this study, we estimate the size of RBS issuance by applying the interest rates used by the Korea Housing Finance Corporation. Our results show that if RBS credit is enhanced through a trusted agency with a long history, it is possible to secure long-term funding at a reasonable cost and thus stabilize the supply of social rental housing. In addition, we discuss risk factors related to RBS cash flows, such as the discount rate, vacancy rate, conversion rate of chonsei to monthly rent, and deposit-to-chonsei ratio. Our scenario analyses show that the conversion rate of chonsei to rent directly affects the expected cash flow and size of RBS issuance because it determines the monthly cash flow based on changes in the regional rental market. To manage the risk associated with a social rental housing development project, we propose offering call option provisions on RBSs, executing a rollover strategy using short-term bonds, and issuing floating-rate bonds and pass-through RBSs. The results suggest that it is crucial to study related risk factors and simulate the expected cash flows as different variables change before using RBSs to fund a social rental housing development project. The results of this study provide policy implications by confirming through simulations that RBSs can be used as a means of financing to increase the supply of social rental housing. RBSs are bond-type investment products that liquidate future income from rental houses. Unlike real estate investment trusts (REITs), which assume that a house will be sold after its mandatory lease term, RBSs do not require the underlying properties to be sold. In Korea, especially in the Seoul metropolitan area, it is difficult to maintain a supply of social rental housing using REITs owing to the lack of adequate locations. RBSs can be used as an alternative financing method to expand the supply of social rental housing in these areas. However, this study has several limitations. Because the simulation is based on a virtual social rental housing development project, more diverse follow-up studies should be conducted before issuing RBSs. Indeed, to issue RBSs and manage the related risks, it is necessary to understand each risk factor and the correlations between these factors. Several simulations of the effects of each risk factor on cash flows should also be conducted. In particular, the distribution of rental income cash flows should be estimated more precisely through research on the effects of interest rate changes on major variables in the housing market, and the correlations among the sale, chonsei, and monthly rental prices in the housing market should be better understood.