본 연구의 목적은 2017년도 가계금융복지조사를 이용하여 연체기간과 연체사유에 따른 연체현황을 살펴보고, 각 유형별 연체여부에 대한 가계소득, 부채총액, DSR, DTA와 가구원수, 가구주 연령, 성별, 교육수준, 혼인상태, 종사상지위, 입주형태, 거주지역의 영향을 살펴보는 것이다. SPSS를 이용하여 금융부채보유가구인 4,970가구를 분석한 주요결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 금융부채보유가구 중 연체를 경험하고 있는 가구는 10%이다. 30일 미만 연체를 경험한 가구는 5.5%, 30일 이상 연체를 경험하고 있는 가구는 4.5%이다. 연체경험가구의 연체사유를 보면 소득감소가 29.9%, 자금융통차질이 20.3%, 이자 및 원금상승이 20.3%, 납부기일 착오가 17.1%, 가계지출증가가 11.2%이다. 연체기간별 연체사유를 보면 30일 미만 연체의 경우 납부기일착오로 인한 연체가 25.9%로 가장 많은 반면 30일 이상 연체의 경우는 소득감소로 인한 연체인 경우가 38.8%로 가장 많았다. 둘째, 각 유형별 연체여부를 종속변인으로 로지스틱 분석을 실시한 결과 각 유형별로 영향을 미치는 변인이 다르게 나타났다. 30일 미만 연체에 영향을 미치는 요인은 가계소득, 부채총액, DSR, DTA, 가구원수, 가구주 연령, 교육수준, 혼인상태, 입주형태이다. 30일 이상 연체에 영향을 미치는 요인은 가계소득, 부채총액, 가구원수, 가구주 연령, 교육수준, 혼인상태, 종사상지위, 입주형태이다. 이자 및 원금상환부담 상승으로 인한 연체가능성에는 가계소득, 부채총액, 가구주 연령, 교육수준, 혼인상태 및 입주형태가 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 자금융통차질로 인한 연체가능성에 영향을 미치는 요인은 가계소득, 부채총액, DTA, 가구원수, 가구주 교육수준, 혼인상태, 입주형태이고, 소득감소로 인한 연체가능성에는 가계소득, 가구원수, 가구주 연령, 교육수준, 종사상지위가 영향을 미치는 요인인 것으로 나타났다. 가계지출증가로 인한 연체가능성에는 가계소득, 가구원수와 자가보유여부만 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며, 납부기일착오로 인한 연체가능성에는 가계소득, 부채총액 및 가구주 교육수준이 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.
The objectives of this study were to examine the current state of household debt delinquency and find out the variables influencing the debt delinquency. Debt delinquency was categorized according to the delinquency period and delinquency reasons. The data were the 2017 Survey of Household Finances and Living Conditions which was jointly conducted by Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea and Financial Supervisory Service. Using SPSS, multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted for 4,970 households with financial debt. In the logistic regression analyses, the independent variables were household income, total debt, DSR, DTA, number of household members, age, sex, educational level, marital status and employment status of head, home ownership, and residential area.
The main results are as follows. First, 10% of households having financial debt experienced delinquency. The households who experienced less-than-30-days delinquency accounted for 5.5% and those who did 30-days-and-over delinquency accounted for 4.5% of the households with financial debt. The delinquency reasons were ‘decrease of household income (29.9%)’, ‘failure of financing (20.3%)’, ‘increase of repayment burden of interest and principal(20.3%)’, ‘payment errors- negligence of repayment on due date (17.1)’, and ‘increase of household spending (11.2%)’. The delinquency reasons were different by the delinquency period. Major reason of less-than-30-days delinquency was ‘negligence in repayment on due date (25.9%)’ whereas that of 30-days-and-over delinquency was ‘decrease of income (38.8%)’.
Second, the effects of the independent variables in the multiple logistic analyses for each debt delinquency type categorized according to the delinquency period and delinquency reasons were different. The variables what influenced on the possibility of less-than-30-days delinquency were household income, total debt, DSR, DTA, number of household members, age, educational level, marital status and employment status of head. Those for 30-days-and-over delinquency were household income, total debt, number of household members, age of householder, educational level, marital status, employment status, and home ownership.
The possibility of delinquency due to increase in interest and principal repayment burden was affected by household income, total amount of debt, age of householder, educational level, marital status and home ownership. Factors affecting the delinquency possibility due to negligence in repayment on due date were household income, total debt, DTA, number of household members, householder education, marital status, and home ownership. Delinquency due to income decline was influenced by household income, the number of household members, the age of the householder, education and the status of employment. The probability of delinquency due to household spending increases were affected by household income, the number of household members, and home ownership. The factors affecting the probability of delinquency due to negligence in repayment on due date were household income, total debt, and educational level of householder.