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기계학습방법을 활용한 대형 집단급식소의 식수 예측: S시청 구내직원식당의 실데이터를 기반으로
Predicting the Number of People for Meals of an Institutional Foodservice by Applying Machine Learning Methods: S City Hall Case
전종식 ( Jongshik Jeon ) , 박은주 ( Eunju Park ) , 권오병 ( Ohbyung Kwon )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2019-500-001352156

Predicting the number of meals in a foodservice organization is an important decision-making process that is essential for successful food production, such as reducing the amount of residue, preventing menu quality deterioration, and preventing rising costs. Compared to other demand forecasts, the menu of dietary personnel includes diverse menus, and various dietary supplements include a range of side dishes. In addition to the menus, diverse subjects for prediction are very difficult problems. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to establish a method for predicting the number of meals including predictive modeling and considering various factors in addition to menus which are actually used in the field. For this purpose, 63 variables in eight categories such as the daily available number of people for the meals, the number of people in the time series, daily menu details, weekdays or seasons, days before or after holidays, weather and temperature, holidays or year-end, and events were identified as decision variables. An ensemble model using six prediction models was then constructed to predict the number of meals. As a result, the prediction error rate was reduced from 10%∼11% to approximately 6∼7%, which was expected to reduce the residual amount by approximately 40%.

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