본 연구는 공간계량경제모형을 이용해 주택시장의 동학적 특성을 살펴보기 위해 주택매매가격, 전세가격, 주택매매거래량, 경제활동인구, 실업자수, 토지거래량과 회사채수익률로 공간패널을 구축해 실증분석하였다. 공간적 범위는 서울시 25개구로, 시간적 범위는 2006년 1분기부터 2014년 3분기까지로, 내용적 범위는 주택 중 아파트로 설정하였다. 일반회귀모형(OLS), 공간자기회귀모형(SAR), 공간오차모형(SEM)과 일반공간모형(SAC)을 추정한 결과 설명변수의 공간적 자기상관과 오차항의 공간적 자기상관을 모두 고려한 일반공간모형이 가장 적합한 모형으로 나타났다. 일반공간모형 추정결과, 토지거래량이 1% 증가할 경우 주택매매가격은 0.01% 증가하고 주택전세가격이 1% 증가할 경우 주택매매가격은 0.37% 높아지고 경제활동인구가 1% 증가할 경우 주택매매가격은 0.69% 상승하는 것으로 나타났다. 통계적 유의성은 없지만 주택매매가격에 주택매매거래량과 실업자수는 음(-)의 영향을 회사채수익률은 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 공간상관계수가 유의수준이내에서 유의한 것으로 나타나 한 지역에서의 주택가격의 변화는 다른 지역에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

1. CONTENTS (1)RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to examine the dynamic characteristics of the housing market. (2)RESEARCH METHOD In this study, to examine the dynamic characteristics of the housing market, the spatial panel was built with the housing price, Chonsei price, house trading volume, economically active population, number of unemployed, land trading volume and the return of corporate bond and was analyzed empirically. The spatial range was set to 25 districts in Seoul and the temporal range was established from the first quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2014. (3)RESEARCH FINDINGS In the results of analyzing the estimation for the general regression model(OLS),the spatially autoregressive model(SAR),the spatial errors model (SEM) and the spatial lagged term with spatially correlated error structure model (SAC), the spatial lagged term with spatially correlated error structure model (SAC) was represented as the most appropriate model. In the results of estimating SAC, it was represented that when the land trading volume was increased by 1%, the housing price was increased by 0.01%, when Chonsei price was increased by 1%, the housing price was increased by 0.37% and when the economically active population was increased by 1%, the housing price was increased by 0.69%. Although there was no statistical significance, it was represented that the house trading volume and the number of unemployed had negative (-) in fluence and the return of corporate bond has positive (+) in fluence on the housing price. 2. RESULTS Since the current raise in Chonsei price may cause the raise in the housing price, the government should understand it and needs to establish and implement diverse policies such as supplying the rented housings, etc. to stabilize the housing problem for the middle and working classes.