부동산거래는 공급자와 수요자간 협상이 요구되는 일반시장과 수요자간 경쟁에 의해 형성되는 경매시장으로 구분된다. 최근 부동산 경매시장은 경기침체와 소득저하 등으로 공급이 증가하였고, 과거에 비해 부동산경매와 관련한 정보의 획득이 용이하고 시세보다 저렴한 가격에 부동산을 구입할 수 있다는 장점으로 수요가 증가하고 있다. 본 연구는 최근 양적 및 질적으로 확대되고 있는 부동산 경매시장에 대하여 다양한 정보를 제공하고자 로지스틱 회귀분석을 실시하여 경매 낙찰결정요인을 분석하였다. 실증분석은 2014년 1월부터 12월까지의 서울시 소재 주거용부동산 중 단독주택만을 기준으로 하였으며, 분석결과 낙찰확률을 증가시키는 변수는 개발여부, 낙찰가비율, 유찰횟수이며, 낙찰확률을 감소시키는 변수는 건물이용, ln감정가액, 임차인유무, 경매범위, 인수권리유무 등으로 나타났다.

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to closely examine and provide statistical analysis on what variables and how they determine the success or failure of the auction of single houses. (2) RESEARCH METHOD The subject of examination in this research is restricted to single houses located in Seoul which were up at public auctions in 2014. For public bidding has a distinct feature that it is held on a specific day and its success and failure is determined that day, Logistics Regression Analysis model is used for examination. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS Chief findings of this research seem to be consistent and plausible enough to provide meaningful results for the auction participants so as to enhance their predictability and make a contribution to their wise decision-making. 2. RESULTS The results of this study are as follows. 1) The variables that elevate the probability of success in bidding are found to be the followings: Whether the real property is repaired or well developed, a ratio of final contract price to the official evaluation price of the property and the number of biddings performed. 2) The variables that reduce the probability of success in bidding are found to be the followings: Whether the residential real property is used as single housing or multi-unit housing, the log value of official evaluation price of the property at the start of its auction, whether there is a tenant of the house, whether it is a stake auction and whether the final successful bidder should take over burden such as lien and legally protected superficies.