18.97.9.168
18.97.9.168
close menu
Accredited
시도별 인구구조 변화 고찰을 위한 인구 동태모형 개발
A Study on the Development of Dynamic Population Model according to the Changes of Population Structure on Region
조윤숙 ( Cho Youn-sook ) , 이종필 ( Lee Jong-phil )
DOI 10.32588/ksds.18.4.1
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2018-500-004049738

The purpose of this study is to develop dynamic population model to forecast the change in population structure on region. To achieve this, the cohort component method, the demographic balancing equation and system dynamics modeling were applied to calculate the population. The results are as follows. First, this study demonstrates the applicability of the System Dynamics as a future forecast methods. Second, this is possible to simulate demographic changes and intuitively identify the population structure on region. Also, various time-series population indices concerned on each region by 2050 were computed effectively. Finally, this study suggests that some counterplan for population reduction should be taken as soon as possible. Using this study, an estimated future population should be used as a basis for transforming the focus of regional policy objectives from a different perspective.

[자료제공 : 네이버학술정보]
×