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LARS-WG를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 논벼 증발산량 산정
Estimation of Paddy Rice Evapotranspiration Considering Climate Change Using LARS-WG
홍은미 ( Hong Eun Mi ) , 최진용 ( Choi Jin Yong ) , 이상현 ( Lee Sang Hyun ) , 유승환 ( Yoo Seung Hwan ) , 강문성 ( Kang Moon Seong )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2018-500-003769259

Climate change due to global warming possibly effects the agricultural water use in terms of evapotranspiration. Thus, to estimate rice evapotranspiration under the climate change, future climate data including precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures for 90 years (2011 ∼ 2100), were forecasted using LARS-WG. Observed 30 years (1971 ∼ 2000) climate data and climate change scenario based on SRES A2 were prepared to operate the LARS-WG model. Using these data and FAO Blaney-Criddle method, reference evapotranspiration and rice evapotranspiration were estimated for 9 different regions in South Korea and rice evapotranspiration of 10 year return period was estimated using frequency analysis. As the results of this study, rice evapotranspiration of 10 year return period increased 1.56%, 5.99% and 10.68% for each 30 years during 2011 ∼ 2100 (2025s; 2011 ∼ 2040, 2055s; 2041 ∼ 2070, 2085s; 2071 ∼ 2100) demonstrating that the increased temperature from the climate change increases the consumptive use of crops and agricultural water use.

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