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기상예보(氣象豫報)를 고려(考慮)한 관개용(灌漑用) 저수지(貯水池)의 최적(最適) 조작(操作) 모형(模型)(I)-일강수량(日降水量)·일증발량(日蒸發量) 자료발생(資料發生)-
Optimal Reservoir Operation Models for Paddy Rice Irrigation with Weather Forecasts (I)-Generating Daily Rainfall and Evaporation Data-
김병진 ( Kim Byeong Jin ) , 박승우 ( Park Seung Woo )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2018-500-003767295

The objective of the study is to develop weather generators for daily rainfall and small pan evaporation and to test the applicability with recorded data. Daily rainfall forecasting model(DRFM) was developed that uses a first order Markov chain to describe rainfall sequences and applies an incomplete Gamma function to predict the amount of precipitation. Daily evaporation forecasting model(DEFM) that adopts a normal distribution function to generate the evaporation for dry and wet days was also formulated. DRFM and DEFM were tested with twenty year weather data from eleven stations using Chi-square and Kolmogorov and Smirnov goodness of fit tests. The test results showed that the generated sequences of rainfall occurrence, amount of rainfall, and pan evaporation were statistically fit to recorded data from eleven, seven, and seven stations at the 5% level of significance. Generated rainfall data from DRFM were very close in frequency distribution patterns to records for stations all over the country. Pan evaporation for rainy days generated were less accurate than that for dry days. And the proposed models may be used as tools to provide many mathematical models with long-term daily rainfall and small pan evaporation data. An example is an irrigation scheduling model, which will be further detailed in the paper.

[자료제공 : 네이버학술정보]
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