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KCI 등재
분위회귀를 이용한 주택규모별 수요예측
Forecasting Distribution of Dwelling Size Using Quantile Regression Model
김미경 ( Mi Kyoung Kim ) , 이창무 ( Chang Moo Lee )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2016-320-000352452

Korean housing market currently faces demographic changes such as the increase in single-person or elderly households and the deceleration of population growth. Based on these changes some researchers anticipate that the demand for small-sized housing units will dramatically increase. And they argue that the portion of small-sized units in housing construction has to be increased. We propose the use of quantile regression as a method for estimating the distributional change of dwelling sizes and forecast long-term housing demand. The advantage of using quantile regression is that it can produce estimates of changes in the distribution of a dependent variable. In light of this issue, the current study examines changes in the distribution of dwelling sizes in the Korean housing market during the past 35 years and estimates housing demand change based on existing trends. The results show that both the average size of housing units and the range of dwelling sizes have increased in the last 35 years. Quantile regression suggests that the estimated future housing demand suggests that demand for medium and large-sized units will increase despite the upward trend of one- or two- person households. These results imply that the demand for small housing units will not be dominant and the excessive construction of small-sized units should be avoided.

I. 서론
II. 선행연구의 고찰
III. 주택규모분포 및 가구 변화 추세
IV. 추정방법론
V. 주택규모별 수요예측 결과
VI. 결론 및 시사점
참고문헌
<부록 표 1> 가구유형별 OLS 및 분위회귀 추정결과
[자료제공 : 네이버학술정보]
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