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예측모형과 예측유형에 따른 정확성 비교분석 -미국 NFL 경기에 대한 예측을 중심으로-
A comparative analysis on the predictive accuracy of different model and type of predictions -By using predictions on NFL games-
송치웅 ( Chi Ung Song )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2015-300-002023898

This study evaluates the predictive accuracy of expert (judgmental) forecasting and system (statistical) forecasting that provided two types of predictions on the NFL regular season games during 2000 and 2001 season. Then, we empirically investigate whether there exists a statistically significant difference in the predictive accuracy within the four groups of experts and systems respectively. From this, we implicitly investigate whether there is any prediction that has a better productivity. For this, we use the methodology of ‘Analysis of Variance by Ranks’ as an analytical tool. Our study finds that there is a statistically significant difference in the predictive accuracy within the group of experts as well as the group of systems who predicted the game winners. Meanwhile, we do not find a statistically significant difference within the group of experts as well as the group of systems who predicted against the betting line. In conclusion, it would not be the model of forecasting but the type of prediction that may induce a difference in the predictive accuracy.

Ⅰ. 서 론(Introduction)
Ⅱ. 데이터(Data)
Ⅲ. 분석모형(Statistical Model)
Ⅳ. 분석결과(Empirical Results)
Ⅴ. 결 론(Conclusion)
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[자료제공 : 네이버학술정보]
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