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Analysts` Pre-tax Income Forecasts and the Tax Expense Anomaly
( Bok Baik ) , ( Richard Morton ) , ( Yong Oh Roh )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2015-300-002230813
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This paper examines whether analysts` pre-tax income forecasts mitigate the tax expense anomaly documented by Thomas and Zhang (2011). They find that seasonal changes in quarterly income tax expense are positively related to future returns after controlling for the earnings surprise. They conclude that investors underreact to value-relevant information in tax expense. When analysts issue both earnings and pre-tax income forecasts, they implicitly provide a forecast of income tax expense. We posit that this implicit forecast helps investors to recognize the persistence of current tax expense surprise for future earnings. Accordingly, we expect that the mispricing of tax expense surprise will be less severe for firms with earnings and pre-tax income forecasts. As expected, we find that the positive relation between tax expense surprise and future returns is significantly weakened by the presence of pre-tax income forecasts. Overall, these findings suggest that analysts` implicit forecasts of tax expense mitigate the mispricing of tax expense.

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