기후변화협약 제2조에 의하면 협약의 궁극적 목적은 대기 중의 온실가스 농도를 기후체계가 인위적 간섭으로부터 보호될 수 있는 수준으로 안정화하는 데 있다. 또한 동 조약은 온실가스 안정화가 생태계가 자연적으로 기후변화에 적응하고, 식량생산이 위협받지 않으며, 지속가능한 경제발전을 보장할 수 있는 시간 프레임 안에 달성되어야 한다고 명시하고 있다. 따라서 협약의 당사국총회는 협약의 목적을 달성하기 위하여 대기 중의 온실가스 안정화, 즉 완화(mitigation)조치에 역점을 두어 왔으며 특히 온실가스 배출의 역사적 책임을 지고 있는 선진국에 온실가스 배출감축을 의무화하는 교토의정서 이행에 중점을 두어왔다. 그러나 최근 온실가스 저감과 함께 기후변화에 대한 적응(adaptation)의 중요성이 개발도상국을 중심으로 이슈화되었고, 제7차 당사국총회 이후 그 논의가 본격화되었다. 특히 제8차 당사국총회에서는 개발도상국의 기후변화에 대한 적응을 위한 지원과 기술이전의 중요성을 강조하는 델리선언(Delhi Ministerial Declaration)이 채택되었고, 제10차 당사국총회에서는 기후변화 영향과 적응조치에 대한 5개년 작업계획이 수립되어 2005년 캐나다 몬트리올에서 개최된 제11차 당사국총회에서 채택되었다. 따라서 적응은 온실가스 저감과 함께 기후변화협약의 2개의 주요 축으로 자리 잡고 있으며, 향후에도 쟁점 이슈로써 논의가 지속될 것으로 예상된다. 적응은 개인, 공동체, 또는 국가차원에서 극단적인 기상재해를 포함한 모든 기후변화로 인한 영향에 대처해가는 과정으로 정의할 수 있다. 특히 기후변화의 위험에 탄력적으로 대체할 수 있는 사회·경제적 여건을 갖추지 못하고 있고, 국가경제가 기후변화 영향에 민감한 농업, 수자원 등에 의존하고 있는 개발도상국에서의 적응은 위급한 이슈가 될 수 있다. 우리나라는 ‘기후변화협약대책위원회’를 설립하여 기후변화협약 대응 종합대책을 3차에 걸쳐 마련하고, 기후변화 대응을 위한 국제적 노력에 동참하고 있으나 아직까지는 온실가스 저감에 치중하고 있어 기후변화 영향평가 및 적응대책 분야에 대한 연구가 부족한 실정이다. 특히 그동안 국내 관련연구는 특정부문에 대하여 단기적이고 기초과학차원의 기후변화 영향평가를 중심으로 진행되어 왔으며 적응정책과 연계하여 수행된 연구는 미흡한 편이다. 그 결과 기후변화 대응의 큰 축인 적응전략 마련을 위한 국가차원의 종합대응책 수립에 어려움이 많은 실정이다. 본 연구의 목적은 기후변화의 부문별 영향평가를 실시하고, 평가결과를 바탕으로 우리나라에서 기후변화로 인한 취약부문을 확인하며, 취약부문에 대한 적응능력 향상을 위한 통합적이고 비용효과적인 기후변화 국가 적응정책 시스템 구축에 있다. 본연구는 2005, 2006, 2007년에 걸쳐 3년 동안 연차적으로 수행되며, 아래 그림과 같은 연구추진계획을 갖고 있다.

In recent years, parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have recognized the importance of reducing vulnerability to climate change and establishing adaptation policies in addition to the mitigation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. At the eleventh Conference of Parties (COP-11; Montreal 2005), the five-year work program on adaptation has been adopted, and the main discussion theme of the COP is being shifting from mitigation to adaptation. Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities, and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change and climate variability (UNDP, 2005). For developing countries, reducing vulnerability to climate change can be an urgent issue because these countries tend to lack the tools to deal with consequent climate risks. Although the need for the development of adaptation strategies is widely acknowledged and practical guidelines to adaptation policy-making is provided by international organizations such as the UNDP and OECD, the issue of adaptation is relatively new in Korea. The purpose of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change in sectoral levels, to identify climate vulnerability, and to develop an integrated and effective nationwide adaptation strategic framework for Korea. The project is set for three-year (2005-2007), and this report presents the results of the first year`s effort. In the first year, the concepts of vulnerability and adaptation of climate change and the related negotiation process under the Convention were reviewed. In addition, we examined studies conducted in Korea in relation to impact assessments of and adaptations to climate change in agriculture, forest, health, and industry/energy sectors. In the second year, the sectoral assessment will be continued for water and coastal zones. Further, the development of techniques to evaluate the vulnerability will be followed by the outcomes from the sector-level impact assessments. In the third year, we will develop integrated and effective adaptation strategies at the national level in order to enhance adaptive capacity for identified vulnerable sectors based on the results from the first and second year. The major findings from this year can be summarized as follows. In agriculture and forest sectors, related statistics and case studies are relatively well established in Korea. In the agricultural sector, it is expected that the boundaries with the potential for cultivation will move toward the north for major crops. The rice yield is reported to increase when CO2 concentration increases in the atmosphere, while decreasing wit the fall of average air temperature (Shin, 2000). However, the effects of crop productivity are largely subject to local conditions other than climate. Agricultural systems are vulnerable to climate extremes such as floods and drought, and the resulting financial damages have substantially increased after 1980 in Korea. Forest ecosystems and industries can be significantly affected by climate change, including forest biodiversity, nutrition cycles and productivity, and natural disasters such as fire or drought. Jeon et al. (2002) predicted that warm-temperate forests will decline to be replaced by sub-tropical forests in the Korean peninsula. The study conducted by the Korea Forest Research Institute (KFRI, forthcoming) reports similar results, supporting that broad-leaved tree species such as the Quercus serrata, Carpinus laxiflora, Carpinus tschonoskii will increase while the Pinus koraiensis and Quercus mongolica Fisch. will decrease when the temperature increase by 1°C in the next 100 years. Heat and heat waves are likely to increase in severity and frequency with increasing average temperatures. In Seoul, an additional 1°C increase from 29.9°C during the summers is estimated to cause a 3% increase in deaths (Kim, 2004). In addition, incidences of diseases related to air pollution such as asthma are increasing among children and elderly people. The development of adaptation strategies is important. Because heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable through behavioral adaptations including use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Assessing the impacts of climate change on human health is complicated task. It requires significant time to identify clear relationship between diseases and climate variables. In Korea, research on the impact on human health due to climate change is in its infancy. More research is definitely warranted. In the industry sector, research efforts are largely ignored except for the agricultural, forestry, and fishery product industries. Because these industries are directly influenced by climate change, the reasons to undertake impact assessments are relatively straightforward. However, assessments of the manufacturing and service industries are a different story because the impacts due to climate change are not clearly defined. It is likely that climate change modifies the behavioral patterns of consumers and producers. However, the direction and the extent of influence is uncertain. Presumably, there will be behavioral changes in the consumption of summer products such as air-conditioning and cold drinks. In addition, the summer recreational industry will conceivably expand. Nevertheless, little empirical research is found in Korea as far as this study is concerned. In the industry sector, impact assessments will be an urgent research agenda.