본 연구는 한국노동패널데이터(6차~13차)를 병합하여 정규직과 비정규직의 노조가입의 향 결정요인에 대해 ‘패널 로짓 확률효과 모형’을 사용하여 분석하였다. 종속변수인 노조가입의향에 대해 정규직은 성별, 연령, 사업체 규모, 임금, 직무만족도, 노조만족도, 이직의사, 직종(생산기능직) 등의 변수가 통계적으로 유의미한 영향을 미쳤으며, 비정규직은 연령, 학력(대학원졸), 사업체규모, 고용안정, 노조만족도, 이직의사, 직종(생산기능직) 등의 변수가 유의미한 영향을 미쳤다. 연령, 사업체규모, 노조만족도, 이직의사, 직종(생산기능직) 변수는 고용형태와 관계없이 정규직과 비정규직 모두에서 노조가입의향에 통계적으로 유의미한 영향을 미치는 반면, 성별, 임금, 학력, 고용안정성 변수는 고용형태에 따라 다르게 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 각 변수별로 노조가입의향에 어느 정도 영향을 미치는 지를 살펴보기 위해 승산비를 분석한 결과, 정규직은 노조만족도(3.2배), 이직의사(1.9배), 성별(1.5배), 사업체규모(대기업1.5배, 중기업 1.3배) 순으로 영향을 미쳤으며, 비정규직은 노조만족도(3.6배), 사업체규모(대기업 3.0배, 중기업 2.0배), 이직의사(1.9배), 직종(생산기능직 1.8배) 순으로 영향을 미쳤다. 따라서 비노조원의 노조가입의향을 높이기 위해서는 최우선적으로 노조만족도를 높일 필요가 있으며, 정규직과 비정규직의 고용형태별 특성을 고려할 필요가 있다. 또한 노조가입률이 지속적으로 하락하고 있으나 비노조원의 24%가 노조가입의향이 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 잠재된 수요를 노조가입으로 연결시키기 위해서는 노조가 없는 사업장에 노조를 적극적으로 공급함과 더불어 정규직노조의 가입범위를 비정규직까지 확장할필요가 있다.

This study analyzed the determinants of the regular and non-regular employees` willingness to join the labor unions by using the ``panel logit random effect model`` after combing the Korean Labor and Income Panel Data (KLIPS) (6th~13th). As for the willingness of joining labor unions which is a dependent variable, the variables such as gender, age, business size, wage, job satisfaction, union satisfaction, turnover intention, job type (production and technical posts) had a statistically significant effect on the regular employees, while the variables such as age, education (graduate diploma), business size, employment stability, union satisfaction, turnover intention, job type (production and technical posts) had a significant effect on non-regular employees. While the variables such as age, business size, turnover intention, job type (production and technical posts) had a statistically significant effect on the willingness of joining labor unions in both of the regular and non regular employees regardless of the employment type, the variables such as gender, wage, education, employment stability were found to have an effect differently depending on the employment type. In addition, as a result of analyzing the odds ratio to investigate the extent to which each variable has effect on the willingness of joining labor unions, the regular employees were affected by the variables in the order of union satisfaction (3.2 times), turnover intention (1.9 times), gender (1.5 times), and business size (large businesses, 1.5 times; medium sized businesses, 1.3 times), while the non-regular employees were affected by the variables in the order of union satisfaction (3.6 times), business size (large businesses, 3.0 times; medium-sized businesses, 2.0 times), turnover intention (1.9 times), and job type (production and technical posts, 1.8 times). Therefore, in order to increase the non-regular employees` willingness to join labor unions, there is a need to increase union satisfaction as a priority, and the characteristics of the regular and non-regular employees by employment type need to be considered. Additionally, it has been analyzed that 24% of the non-union members have the willingness to join labor unions although the rate of joining unions is continuously decreasing, In order to connect these potential demands to joining labor unions, there is a need to expand the range of joining regular employees` labor unions to non-regular employees as well as providing labor unions actively for the workplaces without a labor union.