본 연구는 확률적 사고를 나타내는 표본공간, 사건의 확률, 확률비교, 조건부 확률의 4가지 구성요소(Jones 외, 1997; 1999)를 이용하여 유아들의 확률적 사고를 탐구하였다. 이를 위해 만 5세 유아들을 대상으로 생활경험과 관련한 실험적 확률 활동안 20개를 고안해 11주 동안 적용하였다. 실험적 확률활동은 유아들이 확률적 상황을 예측하고, 직접 실험하여, 결과를 확인하는 과정이다. 연구 결과, 실험집단 유아들이 통제집단 유아들보다 표본공간, 사건의 확률, 확률비교, 조건부 확률의 전체적인 확률이해 뿐만 아니라 각 구성요소별 확률이해 점수에서 높은 향상을 보였다. 따라서 실험적 확률활동은 유아들의 확률적 사고에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤음을 알 수 있었다.

This study seeks to understand the educational influence that engaging in an experimental probability activity might have on 5-year-old children`s probabilistic thinking. The probability activity involved estimating a situation, constructing an experiment to test estimations of probabilities and drawing conclusions regarding the results. The researchers also wanted to discover changes in young children`s probabilistic thinking that took place as they were experiencing the experimental probability activity. Subjects, two classes from child care centers in Seoul, were divided into an experimental group and a control group, each containing 20 children. One of the researchers took the role of teacher with both groups. The results of this study show a positive influence on young children`s probabilistic thinking as they engaged in the experimental probability activity. This positive effect went beyond the activity and was seen in activities involving sample space, probability of an event, probability comparisons and conditional probability. Therefore, it can be concluded that young children`s active engagement in experimental probability activities produces a positive influence on various elements of their probabilistic thinking.