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일본 서식 외래 담수어종의 서식확률 평가를 위한 통계기법 연구
Statistical Methods to Evaluate the Occurrence Probability of Exotic Fish in Japan
한미덕 ( Mi Deok Han ) , 정욱진 ( Wook Jin Chung )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2012-510-002192845

This study analyzed and modeled the relationships between the probabilities of two exotic species occurrence (i.e. largemouth bass and blue gill) and environmental factors such as climatic and geographical variables using Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Generalized Liner Models and Classification Tree Analysis (CTA). The most moderate occurrence probability of largemouth bass was predicted using GAM with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88 and Kappa of 0.42, while those of blue gill was suggested by using CTA with an AVC of 0.92 and Kappa of 0.44. The most significant environmental variable in terms of changes in deviance for both species was the annual air temperature for the occurrence probability. Dams had stronger effect on the occurrence of largemouth bass than blue gill. Model development and prediction for the occurrence probability of fish species and richness are necessary to prevent further spread of exotic fishes such as largemouth bass and blue gill because they can threaten habitats of native river ecosystem through various mechanisms.

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